I thought I'd make a detailed list of countries that might see some exports of Chinese fighter jets (no UAVs in this analysis though) in the next decade or so.
To start it off, some elimination. Certain countries are simply unlikely to even consider buying Chinese. That's basically the west-aligned countries.
Also, certain countries don't have even jet trainers in their air forces (if they can afford an air force at all). So those would be off the list as well.
Of course, very poor countries aren't even a possibility. So any country with GDP of less than $20 billion per year isn't considered.
When both of those are excluded, what we're left with is:
Cuba
Has soviet planes, old, but in reality they seem to have given on on having an active air force. Unsure if politically US pressure may be too great for China to have any chance of selling high tech arms there. I'd rate it as a no for chinese jets.
Colombia
has us, brazilian and israel jets. Seems pretty much western leaning. I'd say no for chinese jets.
Venezuela
Has russian jets which, especially since the country is bankrupt, will likely be held onto for over a decade more. Has some F16s which could need replacement. And two dozen chinese K8 trainers. Politically, Chinese stuff might have a good chance. And some planes are only getting older. But given the lack of money I don't see anything but perhaps a dozen or two cheap trainers or at best combat L15 jets as a possibility here. Perhaps during 2030s there might be some more expensive plane purchases but that's beyond the scope of this analysis.
Ecuador
Has south african and us, european stuff. Under US sphere, I'd say. a no go.
Peru
Has soviet and french m2000. In theory this might go, though i'm sure US would cry foul and threaten sanctions. Doubtful that anything other than jet trainers, perhaps a dozen would go through. If even that.
Uruguay
has some chinese transports, but has only western trainers and light attack planes. I guess possible, but again, unlikely. And if a sale does happen, L15 class plane is probably the most that can be sold. Probably not even a dozen.
Argentina
Has no air force, though it isn't a poor country. but military is one of the last things they're spending money on. And they seem to be western leaning more than anything else. Could go either way i guess, depending on new governments in the future, so anything from a L15 to even JF-17 is possible. Theoretically even J-10. But it's too hard to call. They could just as easily (or even more likely) go western and/or decide to stick to very low numbers. Perhaps be content with second hand f16s or just a dozen Gripens or Korean T50s or whatever.
Serbia
Has a dozen refurbished mig29. Has no money so will likely stick to those up to 2030. Perhaps some chinese jet trainers are possible. maybe up to half a dozen? But yak130 may be even more likely, due to political ties.
tunisia -
only western so far, US influence is pretty strong. i'd say a no go.
Algeria
buying russian currently. su30 and new mig29 and rumors say maybe even su32. maybe some trainers left for china? Though russian ties are stronger so i'd say unlikely purchase here.
Uganda
Has some mig21, 8 su30. I guess they could go for several JF17. And/or perhaps more likely chinese trainers. Perhaps even a dozen? Theoretically Russia might stop the purchase via engines but then again, i don't see them talking uganda into getting mig29 so they might not.
Cambodia
Has some L39. has some Y12, so precedent for chinese is there. Could in theory get chinese trainers.
Laos
20 yak130 on order. Unlikely they'll need anything else and expans.
Senegal
4 L39 on order. some russian helos, some european planes. Again unlikely they'll expand in the next decade.
Zambia
has some mig21, may not fly. has chinese transports. has L15. Possible that a few more L15 will be bought. Perhaps combat L15 will be bought on top of those. Or even half a dozen JF17. who knows.
Yemen
has west and east planes. possibly a few dozen soviet ones. Might enjoy replacement planes but its politically sensitive stuff. China or russia don't want to anger Saudis over Yemen. So until there's a regime change in Yemen this may be on hold. If regime change does happen - we may indeed see a dozen trainers and a dozen cheap jets like JF17. But Russia might stall that purchase through the blocked engine sale so they can sell own planes.
sudan
has russian 29/25. has j7. could be a candidate. Perhaps half a dozen trainers and a dozen JF17 class jets. Not sure russia would even try to intervene here and stop jf17 sales.
libya
soviet planes two dozen, on paper. May need rebuilding. Could be a race between russia and china to help them rebuild. Some chances for a dozen trainers and two dozen cheap jets. If there'd be no russian limits on JF17, i'd say china has even some greater chances here.
cameroon.
Has some chines transports. some russian, some us. has 6 alpha jets. There might be need for half a dozen new trainers, so China may have some chance there.
turkmenistan
Old soviet migs and sukhois 29/25 40 pcs on paper. Could need replacements but Central asia is quite under russian influence. I guess some chance for l15/jf17 or even j10 does exist - but it's small.
azerbaijan
old soviet planes 29/25 25 pcs, 12 l39 trainers. Some replacements are quite likely. Russia prefers Armenia to Azerbaijan, so China might have some room here. Perhaps a dozen trainers and two dozen cheap jet fighters are possible.
congo
6 soviet jet fighters. possibly don't fly. Don't see they'd go for more than some trainers.
syria
100+ fighters on paper. 36 yak130 on order, some mig29M2 on order. might need more, but might have no money. And russian influence is pretty strong. I'd say Chinese sales are not likely. If they do materialize, perhaps combat L15s seem most likely, but not over a dozen or two. I guess jf17 class planes also possible, but if russia doesn't block the sale.
uzbekistan
39 mig29, 27 su27, 20 su25. they all might need replacement. but russian influence might lower chinese chances. Even if they do buy chinese, i don't see them not buying russian as well. So only a piece of the cake. again smaller jets and trainers.
belarus.
soviet. 12 su30 on order. has yak130. Strong russian influence. I'd say a no go.
tanzania.
has chinese planes. 5 jl8, 5 j7. Might go for some modernization. but only a few trainer class planes.
myanmar.
has chinese. 10 jf17 on order, su30 on order. jl8 and yak130 on order. They're probably done ordering stuff for the next decade. Maaaybe a small top up order of Jf17 could be expected.
ghana
has 4 k8 trainers. 5 coin planes on order. Possible L15 order, but half a dozen at most.
sri lanka
some j7 and kfir. has chinese stuff. some jl8. They could actually go for a decent buy, if there was no Indian factor and political pressure. half a dozen trainers, perhaps up to a dozen light fighters. But given india factor - who knows.
ethiopia
has l39 10 pcs, has 25-50 soviet planes. could indeed go for chinese in the next 10 years. Perhaps 6-12 trainers, double that number of light jets? J10 theoretically possible but I'd say unlikely due to cost.
angola
9 czech trainers. soviet helos. 10 su30 on order. a few dozen soviet fighters. Is already ordering russian. though given the large flankers, there may be room for some JF17 or L15 orders. Probably not more than a dozen each.
kenya.
has chinese transport and helos and us transport and euro helos. has 17 f5. Could go Chinese. Maybe a dozen cheap planes?
PART 2 in the next post.
To start it off, some elimination. Certain countries are simply unlikely to even consider buying Chinese. That's basically the west-aligned countries.
Also, certain countries don't have even jet trainers in their air forces (if they can afford an air force at all). So those would be off the list as well.
Of course, very poor countries aren't even a possibility. So any country with GDP of less than $20 billion per year isn't considered.
When both of those are excluded, what we're left with is:
Cuba
Has soviet planes, old, but in reality they seem to have given on on having an active air force. Unsure if politically US pressure may be too great for China to have any chance of selling high tech arms there. I'd rate it as a no for chinese jets.
Colombia
has us, brazilian and israel jets. Seems pretty much western leaning. I'd say no for chinese jets.
Venezuela
Has russian jets which, especially since the country is bankrupt, will likely be held onto for over a decade more. Has some F16s which could need replacement. And two dozen chinese K8 trainers. Politically, Chinese stuff might have a good chance. And some planes are only getting older. But given the lack of money I don't see anything but perhaps a dozen or two cheap trainers or at best combat L15 jets as a possibility here. Perhaps during 2030s there might be some more expensive plane purchases but that's beyond the scope of this analysis.
Ecuador
Has south african and us, european stuff. Under US sphere, I'd say. a no go.
Peru
Has soviet and french m2000. In theory this might go, though i'm sure US would cry foul and threaten sanctions. Doubtful that anything other than jet trainers, perhaps a dozen would go through. If even that.
Uruguay
has some chinese transports, but has only western trainers and light attack planes. I guess possible, but again, unlikely. And if a sale does happen, L15 class plane is probably the most that can be sold. Probably not even a dozen.
Argentina
Has no air force, though it isn't a poor country. but military is one of the last things they're spending money on. And they seem to be western leaning more than anything else. Could go either way i guess, depending on new governments in the future, so anything from a L15 to even JF-17 is possible. Theoretically even J-10. But it's too hard to call. They could just as easily (or even more likely) go western and/or decide to stick to very low numbers. Perhaps be content with second hand f16s or just a dozen Gripens or Korean T50s or whatever.
Serbia
Has a dozen refurbished mig29. Has no money so will likely stick to those up to 2030. Perhaps some chinese jet trainers are possible. maybe up to half a dozen? But yak130 may be even more likely, due to political ties.
tunisia -
only western so far, US influence is pretty strong. i'd say a no go.
Algeria
buying russian currently. su30 and new mig29 and rumors say maybe even su32. maybe some trainers left for china? Though russian ties are stronger so i'd say unlikely purchase here.
Uganda
Has some mig21, 8 su30. I guess they could go for several JF17. And/or perhaps more likely chinese trainers. Perhaps even a dozen? Theoretically Russia might stop the purchase via engines but then again, i don't see them talking uganda into getting mig29 so they might not.
Cambodia
Has some L39. has some Y12, so precedent for chinese is there. Could in theory get chinese trainers.
Laos
20 yak130 on order. Unlikely they'll need anything else and expans.
Senegal
4 L39 on order. some russian helos, some european planes. Again unlikely they'll expand in the next decade.
Zambia
has some mig21, may not fly. has chinese transports. has L15. Possible that a few more L15 will be bought. Perhaps combat L15 will be bought on top of those. Or even half a dozen JF17. who knows.
Yemen
has west and east planes. possibly a few dozen soviet ones. Might enjoy replacement planes but its politically sensitive stuff. China or russia don't want to anger Saudis over Yemen. So until there's a regime change in Yemen this may be on hold. If regime change does happen - we may indeed see a dozen trainers and a dozen cheap jets like JF17. But Russia might stall that purchase through the blocked engine sale so they can sell own planes.
sudan
has russian 29/25. has j7. could be a candidate. Perhaps half a dozen trainers and a dozen JF17 class jets. Not sure russia would even try to intervene here and stop jf17 sales.
libya
soviet planes two dozen, on paper. May need rebuilding. Could be a race between russia and china to help them rebuild. Some chances for a dozen trainers and two dozen cheap jets. If there'd be no russian limits on JF17, i'd say china has even some greater chances here.
cameroon.
Has some chines transports. some russian, some us. has 6 alpha jets. There might be need for half a dozen new trainers, so China may have some chance there.
turkmenistan
Old soviet migs and sukhois 29/25 40 pcs on paper. Could need replacements but Central asia is quite under russian influence. I guess some chance for l15/jf17 or even j10 does exist - but it's small.
azerbaijan
old soviet planes 29/25 25 pcs, 12 l39 trainers. Some replacements are quite likely. Russia prefers Armenia to Azerbaijan, so China might have some room here. Perhaps a dozen trainers and two dozen cheap jet fighters are possible.
congo
6 soviet jet fighters. possibly don't fly. Don't see they'd go for more than some trainers.
syria
100+ fighters on paper. 36 yak130 on order, some mig29M2 on order. might need more, but might have no money. And russian influence is pretty strong. I'd say Chinese sales are not likely. If they do materialize, perhaps combat L15s seem most likely, but not over a dozen or two. I guess jf17 class planes also possible, but if russia doesn't block the sale.
uzbekistan
39 mig29, 27 su27, 20 su25. they all might need replacement. but russian influence might lower chinese chances. Even if they do buy chinese, i don't see them not buying russian as well. So only a piece of the cake. again smaller jets and trainers.
belarus.
soviet. 12 su30 on order. has yak130. Strong russian influence. I'd say a no go.
tanzania.
has chinese planes. 5 jl8, 5 j7. Might go for some modernization. but only a few trainer class planes.
myanmar.
has chinese. 10 jf17 on order, su30 on order. jl8 and yak130 on order. They're probably done ordering stuff for the next decade. Maaaybe a small top up order of Jf17 could be expected.
ghana
has 4 k8 trainers. 5 coin planes on order. Possible L15 order, but half a dozen at most.
sri lanka
some j7 and kfir. has chinese stuff. some jl8. They could actually go for a decent buy, if there was no Indian factor and political pressure. half a dozen trainers, perhaps up to a dozen light fighters. But given india factor - who knows.
ethiopia
has l39 10 pcs, has 25-50 soviet planes. could indeed go for chinese in the next 10 years. Perhaps 6-12 trainers, double that number of light jets? J10 theoretically possible but I'd say unlikely due to cost.
angola
9 czech trainers. soviet helos. 10 su30 on order. a few dozen soviet fighters. Is already ordering russian. though given the large flankers, there may be room for some JF17 or L15 orders. Probably not more than a dozen each.
kenya.
has chinese transport and helos and us transport and euro helos. has 17 f5. Could go Chinese. Maybe a dozen cheap planes?
PART 2 in the next post.