Future PLAN orbat discussion

A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Jura said:
25 minutes ago
when I said "parts of Japan" I tried to be subtle, plus wasn't sure about the spelling of geographical names, which I've now checked:
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on a technical side it's interesting to see you removed "The British Empire" during edit time of
#389
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If China was at war with Japan, then China would support Okinawa independence if the opportunity did arise.

Yes, I removed the British Empire reference.

The Communist Party does promote the narrative of a nasty British Empire forcing drugs onto the Chinese population in the name of free trade, but this happened before the Communist Party was founded.
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Totoro said:
Of the three countries mentioned, Philippines is politically most likely to remain neutral. And at least declaratively forbid US forces there. Of course, US may choose to simply put its troops there by force, as Philippines has little means of defending itself. So it may become a war torn country, as China might also be trying to put its troops there at the same time, as a response to the US move.

South Korea is also likely to remain neutral due to the risk involved. Choosing either side would make it lose more than it could gain, in the long run. The fact China has a possible land route there to SK makes the risk quite high.

Japan on the other hand is very likely to fully ally itself with the US. Basically offer its entire soil to the US military, for various staging areas. While Japan too could lose a lot by not remaining neutral, the damage China can do to Japan, compared to the damage China could do to South Korea is much, much smaller.
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A question.

Would Japan join the US in a war against China if Japan knew this war was unwinnable?

And that it would cost Japan the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands and also the Ishigaki islands?
 
T

Totoro

Major
VIP Professional
That question should be addressed to multiple Japanese government, over time.

Of course, Japan might very well believe, just like US, that the war IS winnable.

That's basically how most wars start. Because two sides have different beliefs. Each believing they can win.
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
AndrewS said:
A question.

Would Japan join the US in a war against China if Japan knew this war was unwinnable?

And that it would cost Japan the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands and also the Ishigaki islands?
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seeing someone "knew this was was unwinnable", can't resist to add my favorite story:

after Kolberg fell in 1761, the Prussian campaign against Russians was unwinnable,

and everyone knew this except, oops, Frederick the Great who just wouldn't give up,

and what's happened was Elizabeth of Russia died, was replaced by Frederick's admirer etc.
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Totoro said:
That question should be addressed to multiple Japanese government, over time.

Of course, Japan might very well believe, just like US, that the war IS winnable.

That's basically how most wars start. Because two sides have different beliefs. Each believing they can win.
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And suppose China decided to build a Navy and Air Force that was twice the size of the US?

What is the likely position of the Japanese government?

The logic being that it's cheaper for China to build a much bigger military to successfully deter, than to build a smaller military and then end up in a full scale war because both sides think they can win.
 
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Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
AndrewS said:
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The logic being that it's cheaper for China to build a much bigger military to successfully deter, than to build a smaller military and then end up in a full scale war because both sides think they can win.
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thought it's kind of obvious any peace-time buildup should come incomparably cheaper than fighting "a full scale war" (which would entail war-time buildup anyway, in addition to zillions in damage, and many people dead :-(

Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum
 
Dante80

Dante80

Junior Member
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
And suppose China decided to build a Navy and Air Force that was twice the size of the US?

What is the likely position of the Japanese government?
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Deterrence is not exclusively based on materiel parity or balance. Especially between dissimilar actors. Japan is currently spending less than one percent of its GDP on the JSDF, while keeping a pretty credible defensive posture. I don't see this changing any time soon.
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Dante80 said:
Deterrence is not exclusively based on materiel parity or balance. Especially between dissimilar actors. Japan is currently spending less than one percent of its GDP on the JSDF, while keeping a pretty credible defensive posture. I don't see this changing any time soon.
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Yes, the Japanese Home Islands are relatively secure given the distances and the strength of the JSDF.
But the dissimilar objectives in a possible conflict already favour China.

I would say China's primary military objective would be Taiwan.
  • This is only 200km from mainland China. In comparison, Okinawa is 650km away and the Japanese Home Islands are 1100km away.
Secondary objectives would be the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands and the South China Seas.
  • The uninhabited Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands are slighter closer to mainland China (350km) than to Okinawa (400km). The bases on the Japanese Home Islands are even further away at 900km
  • The South China Seas has 3 Chinese airbases, which would control the skies if aircraft are deployed. Okinawa is 2000km away.
These distances really impact the ability of Japanese airbases to project power.
 
Dante80

Dante80

Junior Member
Registered Member
With regards to the Senkaku Islands, this is really a non-issue. The islands purposefully remain uninhabited, the Japanese coastguard has been routinely chasing away both Chinese fishermen/survey ships and Japanese nationalists from the general area and the extremely valuable economic relations between the two countries pretty much make sure that this issue will remain a diplomatic stalemate (and nothing more than that) for decades to come.

If I can wager a guess, any possible traction on this issue would have to follow tensions or a crisis regarding Taiwan itself. Which is another reason for deeming this a secondary issue, at least from the point of Japanese deterrence (where N. Korea is the actual main course).
 
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