Future PLAN orbat discussion


Bltizo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Even one in service by 2020 is unlikely unless it can start building by next year, and what are the rumors for that? For the first 054 it took almost a year to build and launch and two more to commission. With a ship as complex as the 054B will probably be, the lead ships will take at least as long from build to commission if not likely longer.

Maybe. It would depend on how much more complex 054B would be over 054A, how much more different the hull is etc.

Personally I judge 4 054Bs by 2020 to be somewhat unlikely but not in the realm of outright dismissable, depending on when construction occurs (aka how many more 054As they build).
Though I do think 32 054As + 4 054Bs by 2020 to be in the realm of very unlikely to outright dismissable.
 

FORBIN

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
LOL 4 054Bs by 2020? That's pretty optimistic given we don't even know there is such a ship currently in the works.
Agree and I have see but i trust to half this chart not enough reliable for post in more 2 x 095 which is ugly as 093B very suspicious.
In addition with China yet very difficult have infos so for several years... !
The 18 SSKs are Yuan
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Isn't that a bit too large number?
Not really 60 is just about the right number . They were meant to replace type 037 Missile boat cum Sub chaser and Patrol vessel. 40 has been launched sofar
!00+ boat has been built over the year
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The missile boat function has been relegated to type 22 missile boat
So it is not going to be one to one replacement . Plus type 56 littoral ship is much more potent and better equipped than type 22 ever was.Longer endurance, can cover more sea area.better sensor 80+type 22 are built over the year. I assume their operating area is the first island chain freeing type 054 and 052 for 2nd Island chain and beyond
 
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kwaigonegin

Colonel
Thank You all ... I appreciate your contributions and insights. I think 3 yr projection is relatively easy to predict accurately since the built time and cycle of naval vessels is relatively uniform and we are also well verse in modern PLAN's timetable.
 

Bltizo

Lieutenant General
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Isn't that a bit too large number?

not really.

60 056s have been thrown around as a rumoured number before, and looking at the Navy's large number of older small patrol craft that need to be replaced, 60 056s is quite reasonable.

More importantly, there are already some 40 056/As in the water (commissioned, sea trials, fitting out), and there are no indications that they will be stopping any time soon.

So I think 60 is a healthy estimate at this time.
 

steve_rolfe

Junior Member
Interesting chart.......sure by 2020 the Chinese are going to have a very modern powerful surface fleet, with nearly all the old classes of warships gone by then such as the remaining Luda Destroyers and the older classes of the 053 Frigate. Not shown on that chart, but i'am sure the last class 053H Frigates will be still around, i mean those 10, vessels were only commissioned between 1998-2005, so are hardly old.
Back to the 054B Frigate, for 4 of those to be in service by 2020, then all 4 would have to start construction next year, and that means they would be building them at the same time as the last few 054A's, of which 22 are in service, with another one due to commission very soon, so that leaves just 2 more currently under construction, total would be 25, so if the class total is to be 32, then that means another 7 would need to be built from next year onwards. Umm.....not sure if 32 054A's will be built. if they started on the 054B soon!
What are members thoughts on this?
 

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