Exactly. If upcoming UAVs work as advertised, there is really no role for anything less than 5th Gen's anymore. At the higher end they're over matched by 5th/6th Gen's, at the lower end they're more expensive to procure, maintain, and operate than UAVs.
Future PLAAF fleet procurement and composition
- Thread starter Totoro
- Start date
Exactly. If upcoming UAVs work as advertised, there is really no role for anything less than 5th Gen's anymore. At the higher end they're over matched by 5th/6th Gen's, at the lower end they're more expensive to procure, maintain, and operate than UAVs.
Actually, from our usual grapevines.
Weren't the somewhat latest refresh/upgrade already not quite a step over the initial J20s, like a 5.5 vs 5.0.
If it gets a refresh in early 2030s, incorporating parts of early 6th gen tech/stuff, then J20 and J35 might even be "5.75" gen lol.
By early 2030s, 5th gens (or so called 5.5th gens) will still be in active production at scale, and 6th gens will likely on be starting production at low scale.
So yes, it is likely that the 4.5th gens will be initially mostly replaced by 5/5.5th gens, with a small contribution of 6th gens.
wuguanhui
Junior Member
Retiring 4th gen fighters is wasteful, they are still useful where being detected is desirable. If you feel you have too many 4.5g planes, perhaps you aren't harassing Japan or Taiwan enough. This cannot be done by unmanned aircraft because no one has compunction shooting down an intruding unmanned craft.
If you already have the pilots and maintenance personnel trained and available, and the air frames still have life in them, why not use them up while attriting the service life of Japanese air frames? If not enough facilities, then expand facilities. China has more engineering grads than engineering jobs, and they can't all deliver takeout.
If you already have the pilots and maintenance personnel trained and available, and the air frames still have life in them, why not use them up while attriting the service life of Japanese air frames? If not enough facilities, then expand facilities. China has more engineering grads than engineering jobs, and they can't all deliver takeout.
The cost ratio is about 10:1 for 4.5 gen fighters roughly (50M for a F-15E vs 500M for a B-21) so for the same price as dropping dumb bombs on a single with a subsonic flying wing that still might get shot down by IR guided SAMs or shot down by IRST equipped fighters on egress, you could've just wiped everything with standoff munitions. Standoff payload for 10 strike fighters is also higher than 1 subsonic flying wing.
FriedRiceNSpice
Major
The timeline being discussed is early to mid 2030's, at which point there would be over 1000 5th generation fighters, each capable of utilizing a Lunesberg lenses to be seen.
How are you going to use drones for ADIZ patrols?
FriedRiceNSpice
Major
An enlarged GJ-11 is not going to cost anywhere near a B-21, and stand-off munitions themselves are not cheap either (though I dont see why you cant launch them from an enlarged GJ-11 type UCAV). Air launched munitions will only comprise a fraction of overall PLA fires. Most of the fires will be comprised of low-cost solutions: hundreds of thousands of piston powered drones and thousands of BMs and cruise missiles.
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Because pilots and maintenance personnel and bases are finite resources and better used to be trained and operational in much more capable 5th generation aircraft rather than flying less capable, inferior 4.5th generation aircraft.
Ultimately the PLAs fighter fleet is configured for a high end Westpac conflict, and the peacetime overflight missions in the Western Pacific is just for signalling and training purposes. In theory 4.5th gens can be done for that mission, but if it's at the expense of your pilots and maintenance crew and bases operating 4.5th gens at the expense of 5th gens then it is not worth it at all.
The cruise missiles should also come from aircraft to strike from unexpected angles with adjustable waypoints. Being able to hit from behind in exchange for range is quite important for nearby targets.
same with AWAC and tanker hunting with PL-17s, which don't fit inside weapons bays. PLAAF are probably not idiots.
Also doesn't have flexibility of launching Kinzhal style ballistic hypersonic weapons.
GJ-11 has a 2000 kg payload and short weapons bays. 2000 kg payload is small for strike munitions, Kh-55 class munitions like CJ-10 are 2400 kg or so.