European Economics Thread

RedMetalSeadramon

RedMetalSeadramon

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Norwegian aluminum maker Norsk Hydro called on Tuesday on the United States and the European Union to stop importing Russian aluminum onto their territories, its chief executive told Reuters.

About half of Europe’s aluminum production has been shut down as a result of a surge in energy costs since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while Russian output has been unaffected.


Russia’s Rusal produces around 6% of the world’s aluminum. This metal has not been targeted by Western sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.
But the US is considering restrictions on Russian aluminum imports and the London Metal Exchange (LME), the biggest metals trade hub, is asking members if it should ban Russian material from its system.
“We want to urge sanctions in both Europe and the US,” Hydro CEO Hilde Merete Aasheim told Reuters. “Our European industry shuts down, while … we see Russian production at the same level as before the invasion. So they are benefiting.”
Hydro produces most of its aluminum in Europe, Qatar, Brazil and Canada. It has no production in Russia and has stopped trading in Russian aluminum in the wake of the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.
Producing the metal, used in the automotive, packaging, construction industries among others, is highly energy intensive.
Without sanctions against Russian imports, the future for European production would be at risk, Aasheim said, because Europe’s producers, facing soaring energy costs, would be unable to compete against Russian rivals.
“It is an energy-intensive business, and when the gas has been cut from Russia we see the effect on the power prices, so what is important over time is to get in more renewable power,” she said.
Aasheim’s comments echoed those of US peer Alcoa’s, which is urging the White House to block US imports of the metal from Russia.
With recession looming, however, some business groups say bans on Russian aluminum would decimate European industry.
(By Victoria Klesty; Editing by Gwladys Fouche and Terje Solsvik)
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A rather fiendish proposition from the Norwegians. Hydro Norsk of course does not engage any alumina production, the most energy intensive activity for aluminum in Europe itself, but rather in Brazil. Trying to build a monopoly by forcing out Russian bauxite and making Europe buy their inflated Brazilian alumina from a hemisphere away is truly devilish for them, but then again Norway isn't in the EU, so its not really treacherous to act like a circling vulture.
 
B

Biscuits

Major
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xypher said:
He is doing it because without China he is going to be replaced anyway - 10%+ inflation rate, slow growth, high energy prices in both residential and industrial areas (the latter leading to continued de-industrialization -> loss of jobs), pissed off EU with his energy bailouts and subsidies, etc. If he strikes a good deal with China, then he might offset some of these issues. China needs to set the price high and concrete - not some distant investments or bs like that but some immediate actions & binding contracts - we all know that Westerners are extremely ungrateful and shameless, e.g. China bailed out the US back in 2008 only for Obama to backstab and announce the "pivot to Asia".
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When EU is in its lowest point, China could perhaps blackmail them to be their partner in semiconductors. After all, US is now trying to do something with SK as their partner, so China should seek to nab Germany and Netherlands, using maximum force if necessary.

Something like timing major sanction threats but also major subsidy carrots and below market price gas to the moment Russia breaks through or does some other status quo changing stuff in the war that's slowly killing the EU economy.

China already has a strong and rapidly upwards going electronics sector, the main purpose of such a move is not to help domestic semiconductor companies, but to deny the use of EU technology to America or at least ensure that China has complete insight over what machines EU has, if US takes them over.

Acquiring the full cooperation of EU in semis will likely not boost Chinese capabilities by more than 1 or 2 years at most. But in terms of sending a global signal, it shows that China will fully dominate the sector when every major actor is under some degree of control, just like they have done with other sectors.
 
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ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Biscuits said:
When EU is in its lowest point, China could perhaps blackmail them to be their partner in semiconductors. After all, US is now trying to do something with SK as their partner, so China should seek to nab Germany and Netherlands, using maximum force if necessary.

Something like timing major sanction threats but also major subsidy carrots and below market price gas to the moment Russia breaks through or does some other status quo changing stuff in the war that's slowly killing the EU economy.

China already has a strong and rapidly upwards going electronics sector, the main purpose of such a move is not to help domestic semiconductor companies, but to deny the use of EU technology to America or at least ensure that China has complete insight over what machines EU has, if US takes them over.

Acquiring the full cooperation of EU in semis will likely not boost Chinese capabilities by more than 1 or 2 years at most. But in terms of sending a global signal, it shows that China will fully dominate the sector when every major actor is under some degree of control, just like they have done with other sectors.
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Bro it will never happen, EU pride will kill it and for me Chinese Chauvinism is the answer. Just look at TSMC, they do the hard work, cooperate with Collective West and now is being harvested. @FairAndUnbiased is right the Collective West had a pre determination role for us Asian (sweat shop), stepping out of those role is BIG NO NO. For China this is a perfect time to show the global south that self determination is possible and if the dam had been breach, the torrent it produce will mark the end of Western hegemony, So why prolong it? ;)
 
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horse

horse

Major
Registered Member
supercat said:
I'm wondering the situation for the U.S. EU and Euro zone's GDP may not recover back to the level of 2020 by 2024.
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Their problem.

None of our business.

Do not touch it with a 10 foot pole.

Social unrest is expected.

China cannot do anything for them. No point in hanging around just to be blamed.

:oops:

My guess what will happen to Western society, that is will start looking more like South America.

That is the global north, will start to resemble more like some parts of the global south.

Growing poverty. Lack of opportunities. Income inequality. Hungry. Tough choices between paying the heating bill or the medical bill.

Lack of political solutions or leadership, that is the most damning.

That is kind of like Latin America.

The United States undermines those Latin American states to keep their governments weak.

What we are watching in America and Europe, that government weakness is more of an organic outcome. Hard to say why.

:oops::D
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
european_guy said:
I didn't know of this (of course no info on mainstream media). Here is my take on another very important, even more important event that is now taking place. A bit OT...but no so much, becasue it will have a deep effect also on semiconductors world.

Germany's Scholz decided to visit China although he knows this will piss US greatly.

Now all EU leader will sit at the window and see what happens next. If US succeeds in provoking a political crisis and remove him, and place one of his shills instead (like the current foreign minster that is very pro-US), then everybody in Europe will be scared and will not dare to oppose US. This would be a huge victory for US.

If instead nothing happens to him and he survives, then other leaders very quietly and very smoothly will follow Scholz example.....and US will start to hear some crack on the wall.....

Scholz very brave!

He is well aware of what he is doing, but he is doing it nevertheless, because he thinks is in the interest of his nation.
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A

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
horse said:
Their problem.

None of our business.

Do not touch it with a 10 foot pole.

Social unrest is expected.

China cannot do anything for them. No point in hanging around just to be blamed.

:oops:

My guess what will happen to Western society, that is will start looking more like South America.

That is the global north, will start to resemble more like some parts of the global south.

Growing poverty. Lack of opportunities. Income inequality. Hungry. Tough choices between paying the heating bill or the medical bill.

Lack of political solutions or leadership, that is the most damning.

That is kind of like Latin America.

The United States undermines those Latin American states to keep their governments weak.

What we are watching in America and Europe, that government weakness is more of an organic outcome. Hard to say why.

:oops::D
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That's why I like you bro, we both think alike....lol
 
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