CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread

[Blitzo]

What is the carrier bet?

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/plan-2nd-3rd-aircraft-carrier-wager-planning.t7361/

CONDITIONS OF THE SD 2ND/3RD PLAN CARRIER WAGER:

1) If a second carrier is not seen being built somewhere in the PRC by September 1st, 2016, then PanAsian's persuasion wins the wager hands down. If that build does occur, then the best Pan Asian can get out of the deal is a draw.

2) If a 3rd carrier begins building before June 1st 2020, PanAsian loses the wager hands down.

Any other outcome produces a draw.

RESULTS OF THE WAGER (WHAT'S AT STAKE):

If the people indictating that a 2nd/3rd carrier will not be built lose:

They post a profile picture: of multiple Chinese carriers, and keep it for a year.

If the people indicating that a 2nd/3rd carrier will be built lose:

The post a profile picture of a no circle/slash over a Chinese carrier, and keep it up for a year.


In both cases, if construction photos are shown before the deadlines for the 2nd or the 3rd carriers, that are only actually verified to be the carriers later than the deadlines, as long as they were pointed out before the deadlines, if they do turn out to be a carrier later they will count.

 

[PanAsian]

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/plan-2nd-3rd-aircraft-carrier-wager-planning.t7361/

I must clarify that due to poor negotiation on my part of the wager conditions (did this for fun with forum members while meaningful Chinese military news and activity on the forum was slow) not only do they not reflect my prediction of developments but leans quite generously against it. I had predicted that a 3rd Chinese carrier would not be launched (in the water) by January 1st 2020.

 

[Blitzo]

I must clarify that due to poor negotiation on my part of the wager conditions (did this for fun with forum members while meaningful Chinese military news and activity on the forum was slow) not only do they not reflect my prediction of developments but leans quite generously against it. I had predicted that a 3rd Chinese carrier would not be launched (in the water) by January 1st 2020.

We discussed this to some length in that thread, and I still recall that it was this particular post that really got the wager going, underlined part relevant:

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/2015-plan-update-review-by-jeff-head.t7165/page-2#post-345729

Maybe they will build a second Liaoning-mod CV per their pattern of initially rolling out two of each new ship class, I would still be somewhat surprised but I would be very surprised if they went further than that within a decade from now. If they do build a second carrier much of the justification would be to defray the costs of the entire carrier program that you mentioned and also have a more robust CV training program in preparation for CV fleet expansion in the even further longer term future.

To be honest I'm not quite able to track down a post by you from that discussion before the wager was mentioned, regarding a belief that a 3rd carrier would not be launched by Jan 2020.
Instead, the exchanges that we had prior to starting the wager stemmed from that original underlined part which made it seem like you believed that you thought it would be unlikely for China to "roll out" a third carrier before 2025 (aka a decade from 2015 when you made that post).

 

[Gustaf Adolf]

We discussed this to some length in that thread, and I still recall that it was this particular post that really got the wager going, underlined part relevant:

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/2015-plan-update-review-by-jeff-head.t7165/page-2#post-345729





To be honest I'm not quite able to track down a post by you from that discussion before the wager was mentioned, regarding a belief that a 3rd carrier would not be launched by Jan 2020.
Instead, the exchanges that we had prior to starting the wager stemmed from that original underlined part which made it seem like you believed that you thought it would be unlikely for China to "roll out" a third carrier before 2025 (aka a decade from 2015 when you made that post).

Steel cutting has began on the type 003 carrier so someone is in trouble.

 

[PanAsian]

We discussed this to some length in that thread, and I still recall that it was this particular post that really got the wager going, underlined part relevant:

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/2015-plan-update-review-by-jeff-head.t7165/page-2#post-345729

To be honest I'm not quite able to track down a post by you from that discussion before the wager was mentioned, regarding a belief that a 3rd carrier would not be launched by Jan 2020.
Instead, the exchanges that we had prior to starting the wager stemmed from that original underlined part which made it seem like you believed that you thought it would be unlikely for China to "roll out" a third carrier before 2025 (aka a decade from 2015 when you made that post).

What actually got a wager going was this following post of mine from later in the thread which held both sides of a bet to similarly stringent "high priority" and "low priority" bars for China's carrier program but the final wager terms became much more lenient for the "high priority" side:

If proof comes out within 2015 of China building one additional carrier I may still be correct that they won't have more than a pair of carriers at sea within a decade and I may still be correct about the priority/pace of their carrier program.

If proof comes out within 2015 of China building multiple additional carriers I will humbly admit that I am probably completely wrong about China's carrier program.

Three cheers for the LHD/LHA if it happens at any point in time!!!

I am not a gambler but let's have some fun:
- If proof comes out within 2015 of China building multiple additional carriers I will finally put up a profile picture: of multiple Chinese carriers, and keep it up for at least a year. On top of my humble admission.
- If no proof comes out within 2015 of China building any carrier then you will put up a profile picture of the no circle and slash over a Chinese carrier, and keep it up for at least a year.
- If proof comes out within 2015 of China building a single additional carrier then it's a draw and nothing happens.
Deal?

 

[antiterror13]

Steel cutting has began on the type 003 carrier so someone is in trouble.

When did the steel cutting of 003 start?

 

[Blitzo]

What actually got a wager going was this following post of mine from later in the thread which held both sides of a bet to similarly stringent "high priority" and "low priority" bars for China's carrier program but the final wager terms became much more lenient for the "high priority" side:

Well the disagreement I had was the part of the post I quoted and underlined -- the whole "unlikely to roll out 3rd carrier before 2025" thing.

What you described as "high priority" and "low priority" didn't really have any bearing on whether the 3rd carrier might roll out before 2025 or not, because for a 3rd carrier to rollout before 2025 does not require a 3rd carrier to start work on before the end of 2015.



Putting it another way -- your "low priority" and "high priority" descriptions were completely different to the original post that I took exception with.

My reply to you at the time said as much:
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/2015-plan-update-review-by-jeff-head.t7165/page-4#post-345947

The issue is less about whether we'll get evidence of multiple carriers being constructed in 2015, but whether PLAN is pursuing multiple carriers for service within the next decade or more.

From what I gather, you seem to have backpedalled at the time regarding the whole "no 3rd carrier rollout by 2025" thing, and it might have been a mistaken description of your belief. From what I've read about this matter in the years since, it seems more like you thought there would be no 3rd carrier rollout by 2020 or something earlier than 2025. But as far as I'm aware you never clarified that post which was the source of the disagreement so I have nothing to work on.

 

[Gustaf Adolf]

When did the steel cutting of 003 start?

December last year, so it is many years until it is ready. Especially since it is Chinas first nuclear carrier.

 

[Dante80]

December last year, so it is many years until it is ready. Especially since it is Chinas first nuclear carrier.

Where did you get that information? (a. 003 started construction and b. 003 is a CVN)

 

[PanAsian]

Well the disagreement I had was the part of the post I quoted and underlined -- the whole "unlikely to roll out 3rd carrier before 2025" thing.

What you described as "high priority" and "low priority" didn't really have any bearing on whether the 3rd carrier might roll out before 2025 or not, because for a 3rd carrier to rollout before 2025 does not require a 3rd carrier to start work on before the end of 2015.

Putting it another way -- your "low priority" and "high priority" descriptions were completely different to the original post that I took exception with.

My reply to you at the time said as much:
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/2015-plan-update-review-by-jeff-head.t7165/page-4#post-345947

From what I gather, you seem to have backpedalled at the time regarding the whole "no 3rd carrier rollout by 2025" thing, and it might have been a mistaken description of your belief. From what I've read about this matter in the years since, it seems more like you thought there would be no 3rd carrier rollout by 2020 or something earlier than 2025. But as far as I'm aware you never clarified that post which was the source of the disagreement so I have nothing to work on.

My original disagreement was with Blackstone and went back further than that thread regarding more extreme "low" vs "high" (according to others, not just myself) priority predictions for China's carrier program at the time, thereby my 2015 deadline wager proposal.

You and others negotiated the wager to become about a more extreme "low" priority or just "higher" rather than the more evenly balanced but equally extreme "low" vs "high" priority the disagreement was originally about. I agreed to it though so the wager is what it is.