CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread

Blitzo

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Don't know if Americans use "dodgy" in everyday conversation but in Australia, it means "flawed" or "suspect".

It's the same across the ditch, and is the meaning I intended to convey.

In US vernacular it may have a more severe meaning, which if so was not my intention.
 

Blitzo

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........"dodge".............also means, to avoid.

The word I used was "dodgy" (in relation to Jeff's choice of example and the omission of the full timespan of both carrier's construction), not "dodge". Let's not descend into a deeper discussion about the semantics and local vernacular of a word. Jobjed's post is about as much as one needs to know.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
That's not how PLA watching works.

We rely on credible rumours and leaks to make informed estimations and form conclusions. And for the last few years, all the characteristics of 002 have been consistent that it will be a conventionally powered CATOBAR carrier that displaces about 80,000 tons or slightly less.

Insisting that 002 might be nuclear powered is fundamentally breaching the process through which PLA watching occurs because it ignores the consistent revelation of new information through big shrimps and leaks and even occasional state media which have referenced the 002 carrier directly or indirectly, all of which indicate that it will be a conventionally powered carrier and not a nuclear one.

This may make you feel better ;)
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Third China-made aircraft carrier could be nuclear-powered: expert
(People's Daily Online) 16:15, April 14, 2017

Third China-made aircraft carrier could be nuclear-powered: expert
Photo/China News Service
As China's second aircraft carrier, and the country's first domestically built carrier, approaches its launch, experts predict that the third China-made carrier will see dramatic breakthroughs, such as the use of nuclear power and the capability for an electromagnetic launch.
Military expert Xu Guangyu made this forecast during an interview with BTV.
"The first domestically built carrier is likely to be like the Liaoning [China's first aircraft carrier]. It will be conventionally powered and use a ski-jump take-off, whereas the second one is likely to use a catapult take-off ... The third one, however, will benefit from major breakthroughs,and may even be nuclear-powered," Xu said.
According to Defense Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian at a briefing on March 30, the first domestically built carrier is being outfitted with equipment, and work on it is progressing smoothly.
Military experts have agreed that the independent design and manufacturing of the carrier signifies remarkable progress in China's national defense industry. While it is not the most advanced carrier in the world, it satisfies the demands of China's national condition.
"The development of Chinese aircraft carriers is a slow but steady process. From platform construction to personnel training, it's all gradual," Xu said.
 

Blitzo

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This may make you feel better ;)
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Third China-made aircraft carrier could be nuclear-powered: expert
(People's Daily Online) 16:15, April 14, 2017

Third China-made aircraft carrier could be nuclear-powered: expert
Photo/China News Service
As China's second aircraft carrier, and the country's first domestically built carrier, approaches its launch, experts predict that the third China-made carrier will see dramatic breakthroughs, such as the use of nuclear power and the capability for an electromagnetic launch.
Military expert Xu Guangyu made this forecast during an interview with BTV.
"The first domestically built carrier is likely to be like the Liaoning [China's first aircraft carrier]. It will be conventionally powered and use a ski-jump take-off, whereas the second one is likely to use a catapult take-off ... The third one, however, will benefit from major breakthroughs,and may even be nuclear-powered," Xu said.
According to Defense Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian at a briefing on March 30, the first domestically built carrier is being outfitted with equipment, and work on it is progressing smoothly.
Military experts have agreed that the independent design and manufacturing of the carrier signifies remarkable progress in China's national defense industry. While it is not the most advanced carrier in the world, it satisfies the demands of China's national condition.
"The development of Chinese aircraft carriers is a slow but steady process. From platform construction to personnel training, it's all gradual," Xu said.

Definitely interesting.

I would consider it with far more weight if we had indications from big shrimps like fzgfzy and pop3 that the third domestic carrier would be nuclear powered, and if state media consistently suggest that the third domestic carrier will be nuclear powered for the foreseeable future (e.g.: next few years).

BUT -- remember they are referring to the "third domestic carrier" here, aka the carrier AFTER the first 002 (which would be the second domestic carrier).


So your post in #651 (below) remains unsupported, as there are no indications that 002 (aka second domestic/China made carrier) will be nuclear powered

I tend to believe the chance to be nuclear powered for 002 is 60%. China has mastered the nuclear technology and already start exporting the technology. I don't see why 002 is not nuclear powered
 

Twix101

Junior Member
Definitely interesting.

BUT -- remember they are referring to the "third domestic carrier" here, aka the carrier AFTER the first 002 (which would be the second domestic carrier).


So your post in #651 (below) remains unsupported, as there are no indications that 002 (aka second domestic/China made carrier) will be nuclear powered

So that means PLAN is aiming at getting CVN fleet on the long run, while getting CATOBAR experience from a conventionally powered, possibly steam-cat equipped carrier. 002 is going to be the only one ship of its class.

That means PLAN is going this way :

001 => Initial carrier using already existing ship, initial carrier operation, defines fundamental carrier doctrine.
001A => Almost sister-ship with newer equipment, dock gaining construction experience, ramps up training of crew and pilots.
002 => New conventional Design, Chinese design bureau gaining experience and new capabilities, starting CATOBAR operation, evolution of carrier doctrine.
003 => Nuclear Design, China getting on par with Newport News in terms of capabilities, definitive carrier class ?
 

Blitzo

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So that means PLAN is aiming at getting CVN fleet on the long run, while getting CATOBAR experience from a conventionally powered, possibly steam-cat equipped carrier. 002 is going to be the only one ship of its class.

That means PLAN is going this way :

001 => Initial carrier using already existing ship, initial carrier operation, defines fundamental carrier doctrine.
001A => Almost sister-ship with newer equipment, dock gaining construction experience, ramps up training of crew and pilots.
002 => New conventional Design, Chinese design bureau gaining experience and new capabilities, starting CATOBAR operation, evolution of carrier doctrine.
003 => Nuclear Design, China getting on par with Newport News in terms of capabilities, definitive carrier class ?

Too early, much too early to say.

At present I would say that we only know as far as the first 002/second domestic carrier, and even for 002 we do not yet know if it will be steam or EM catapults yet.

this article does suggest the third domestic carrier may be nuclear, but we need big shrimp corroboration and also some consistent state media support over the next few months/years to suggest that the third domestic carrier will be a nuclear carrier rather than a second 002....

at present, we simply don't have enough evidence to make a solid prediction.
 

kwaigonegin

Colonel
Funny you say they got bad project management. The oil and gas industry here have a lot of Indian project managers. Some are really good and some ate terrible. Most of them have a technical background starting as engineers, of which most are very competent. So I don't know why project managers suddenly became poor back in India. I think its the beaucracy, because the individual skill are still very good.

Or possibility because the best engineers and managers are immigrated to Canada and US, so only bad ones ate left there.

They are not mutually exclusive. I'm sure on an individual basis Indians are no different as any other race of folks in the world be they Americans, Chinese, Europeans etc.

However program/project managers no matter how individually skilled can be bogged down and defeated by bureaucracy, internal or external politics, system inefficiency etc.

Every country on Earth and every project that has ever been conceived have faced similar trials however I do agree that on the international level India experiences it a tad more than other ship building nations.

Heck me and the missus wasted a lot of time and inefficiencies on some seemingly trivial projects like painting a dang bathroom for ex.. now, you multiply that by a million times like a carrier project and you get the picture.

The key is to have sound project management, experience and good leadership, best practices, documentation and of course the most important one of all.. good meaningful and effective communication up and down the entire project chain. this ties in with good leadership and champions.

In the case of my bathroom, there were two chiefs, no indians and comms went down the toilet after a few minutes. So in a sense it became like the Indian carrier project ;)
 
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