CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread

[plawolf]

The main constraint right now seems to be the number of carrier rated pilots available. It makes little sense to be pumping out carriers faster than you can qualify new pilots.

There is going to be a limit in terms of how many pilots one carrier can qualify and maintain due to the need for already qualified pilots to continue to do regular carrier flight ops to maintain proficiency. On top of that the PLAN would want to have at least one carrier ready for operational deployment at short notice.

Building a single 003 would minimise spin up times for it so you don’t end up with finished carriers sitting at dock waiting on crews and pilots. Once it is operational, I expect it will take up the ready-to-deploy carrier role, which will free up the Liaoning and Shandong to do more regular training to qualify new pilots. It is with 004 and beyond that the PLAN should have developed the capacity to commission multiple carriers at once, so I would say it is most likely that for 004, which will be the PLAN’s first nuclear carrier, that we may see true mass production of multiple carriers being built at the same time at different yards.

 

[Gloire_bb]

The 002 and 003 represent different mix of capabilities suitable for different missions. The fact that new 003 instead of further copies of 002 followed 002 is likely driven a target date for achieving a specific capability, and not just how many carriers by what date.

... which means exactly that - lack of rush to get hulls into water.
Because if it was about the rush (say, to match deployable capacity of the USN ASAP) - both processes could be done in parallel.
p.s. also, missions of 001(A) and 003 are the same, 003 is just individually that much more capable.

The 002 were already outdated to US...

US nuclear supercarriers date back to the 1970s(early 1960s if we count in Enterprise).
001A is a 2010s design, dating back to the early 1980s.
Smaller may mean unsuitable(weaker), but it isn't the same as outdated.

 

[Volpler11]

The main constraint right now seems to be the number of carrier rated pilots available. It makes little sense to be pumping out carriers faster than you can qualify new pilots.

There is going to be a limit in terms of how many pilots one carrier can qualify and maintain due to the need for already qualified pilots to continue to do regular carrier flight ops to maintain proficiency. On top of that the PLAN would want to have at least one carrier ready for operational deployment at short notice.

These two lines of arguments seem to be self-contradictory. If the number of pilots that can be trained is limited by the number of carriers, then more carrier = more capacity to train pilots. I think China now trains carrier pilot directly from new pilots instead of retraining existing land base pilots.

 

[plawolf]

These two lines of arguments seem to be self-contradictory. If the number of pilots that can be trained is limited by the number of carriers, then more carrier = more capacity to train pilots. I think China now trains carrier pilot directly from new pilots instead of retraining existing land base pilots.

You are not considering the ramp up time needed to bring new carriers online.

If, just plucking numbers out of the air illustrate, 001 can support the training needs of 50 fighter pilots, with 25 as normal deployment complement, and 003 can support 100 with 50 being the normal complement, which is also the max for carriers in terms of size

Between 001 and 002, you have have 100 qualified pilots, 50 of which are spares who can immediately bring 003 up to full squadron strength and allowing all carriers to train another 100 pilots between them. Which is basically what the PLAN is doing.

Then for 004 class, they can afford to build two simultaneously and have all 5 carriers with full fighter complements ready to go as soon as the new carriers are commissioned.

Sure, you can build two 003 at the same time, but then you will only have half the number of pilots they can accommodate and need to wait a number of years to bring both up to full fighter strength before you even think about training additional pilots for future new builds. What’s the benefit in building more carriers than your ability to have pilots available for?

 

[Andy1974]

China takes its new pilot recruits from Piloting High Schools, kids at schools are already training. The new recruits have a very fast progression to 3rd and 4th Gen jets. Of which there are many thousands.

The simulator training facilities are top notch, and we often see entire classes being trained in them.

I think China can make as many pilots as it needs in much less time than the west could do it, and those pilots would be excellent.

 

[Richard Santos]

... which means exactly that - lack of rush to get hulls into water.
Because if it was about the rush (say, to match deployable capacity of the USN ASAP) - both processes could be done in parallel.
p.s. also, missions of 001(A) and 003 are the same, 003 is just individually that much more capable.

One might as well say they could get even more hulls into the water much more quickly by building viking long ships. The 002 doesn’t provide a key capability they believe they need quite soon, and the need for the more of the capability they can provide is less than the need for the capability they don’t provide, hence there is no need to be saddled with more of them.

 

[Gloire_bb]

One might as well say they could get even more hulls into the water much more quickly by building viking long ships.

You certainly may - if you need them.

But if we're talking carriers - on a concrete example.
Hiryu, as a carrier, was quite clearly inferior to Yorktown class carriers. Comparing it to its immediate follow-ons(Shokaku/Zuikaku) was a non-starter - those were clearly superior carriers - and even by 1940 Soryu/Hiryu design was already insufficient. Then there was yet another generation - even larger(and even more expensive and resource-intensive) Taiho.
But.
As Midway has shown, single Hiryu, inferior or no, could still single strike Yorktown - and in general, was just about good enough.
And then shit really hit the fan for Japan, and everything suddenly came down to the number of fleet carrier decks - it was updated Hiryu (Unryu class) that went into mass production.

The 002 doesn’t provide a key capability they believe they need quite soon, and the need for the more of the capability they can provide is less than the need for the capability they don’t provide, hence there is no need to be saddled with more of them.

And that is exactly lack of urgency.
Because if it would be about urgency - there would be a point in, say, finishing the second brigade of 001As while 003 design - and its concept of operations - is being worked on.

Because if they would have felt this urgency - it is probably not inconceivable to literally have 2 times the number of fleet carriers China will actually have by ~2024-25.

 

[gelgoog]

The only thing which could speed up carrier pilot training would be to have a proper CATOBAR jet trainer aircraft.

I disagree that 003 is obsolete. It is better than any non-US supercarrier. This includes all the carriers of US allies like the Queen Elizabeth class or the Charles de Gaulle. Let alone the ones Japan and South Korea have.

 

[Volpler11]

You are not considering the ramp up time needed to bring new carriers online.

If, just plucking numbers out of the air illustrate, 001 can support the training needs of 50 fighter pilots, with 25 as normal deployment complement, and 003 can support 100 with 50 being the normal complement, which is also the max for carriers in terms of size

Between 001 and 002, you have have 100 qualified pilots, 50 of which are spares who can immediately bring 003 up to full squadron strength and allowing all carriers to train another 100 pilots between them. Which is basically what the PLAN is doing.

Then for 004 class, they can afford to build two simultaneously and have all 5 carriers with full fighter complements ready to go as soon as the new carriers are commissioned.

Sure, you can build two 003 at the same time, but then you will only have half the number of pilots they can accommodate and need to wait a number of years to bring both up to full fighter strength before you even think about training additional pilots for future new builds. What’s the benefit in building more carriers than your ability to have pilots available for?

The math still doesn't make sense. Assuming carrier can be build simultaniously.

Scenario 1: Build one 003. 1 Carrier fully operational in x number of years with existing pilot.

Scenario 2: Build two 003. 1 Carrier fully operational in x number of years with existing pilot. 1 carrier on training duty to produce extra pilots.

Edit: although an argument can be made that the real limitation is the number of PLAN sailor needed to operate the carrier.

 

[AndrewS]

The only thing which could speed up carrier pilot training would be to have a proper CATOBAR jet trainer aircraft.

I disagree that 003 is obsolete. It is better than any non-US supercarrier. This includes all the carriers of US allies like the Queen Elizabeth class or the Charles de Gaulle. Let alone the ones Japan and South Korea have.

There was a US study looking at the historical costs of a nuclear supercarrier (Nimitz) versus a conventional equivalent (like the Kitty/003)

It came out as the conventional carrier being cheaper to operate overall.
Of course, a conventional carrier has a lot less endurance and needs more frequent resupply.

But for the next 15 years, China realistically won't have enough carriers to win a blue water battle beyond Guam in the Western Pacific.
So if conventional Chinese carriers only operate up to 3000km from the Chinese mainland (with land-based air support), the resupply issue is manageable.

Plus I don't see the Chinese Navy flogging its carriers on 6-9month deployments out of every 24months.
That further pushes down the operating costs of a conventional carrier, because the cost of nuclear propulsion is fixed.

Rather than build a nuclear carrier, I suspect it may actually be cheaper to build additional resupply ships with a 003 conventional carrier.
So you get the same sortie rate and endurance overall, but with more frequent resupply operations.