I guess the animator expects that after 2025, 004 will carry mostly 5th gen fighters. Which is a reasonable assumption.
CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread
- Thread starter Jeff Head
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2030 is likely reasonable. 2025 is likely not reasonable. If tomorrow a stealthy pritotype plane based on fc31 flies, it will still need at least 2 to 4 years of testing before initial serial production starts. (Depending on how different the plane is from fc31) then another 2 to 3 years will be needed before first active duty unit stands up. Basically 2026 to have first 12 or so planes serving on a carrier. Which will still not constitute as "mostly 5th gen plane airwing on the carrier".
Given that we will likely have a few months of imminent flight rumors before flight happens, and before ramp up towards 24 planes on carrier takes longer, I believe 2028 is a more realistic estimate.
Given that we will likely have a few months of imminent flight rumors before flight happens, and before ramp up towards 24 planes on carrier takes longer, I believe 2028 is a more realistic estimate.
If the carrier designated deep deep strike jobs, and not for sea control.
True, but remember the FC31 first flew in 2012 and is currently already in V3. So, it's not unreasonable to assume that the FC31 will have first carrier test flight as soon as the 003 comes out this year together with the J-15T, or soon after J-15T (maybe in 2022). With this timeline, it's not "pure fantasy" that 004 will be mostly carrying FC31 as soon as it comes out in 2025.
There is actually no V3, only the second demonstrator numbered 31003. Therefore I would be very careful with any too high hopes and expectations... and to expect any 004 carrier to come it out in 2025 is plain ridiculous.
IMO not even the 003 carrier will be ready for service in 2025.
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It's pretty well accepted that PLA plan is to have 6 carriers by 2035. Given this timeline, it's not ridiculous at all that by 2025, the 4th carrier will come out, by 2030, the 5th, and 2035 the 6th. If you don't think this timeline is credible, then when do you think 004 will come out and when will it be in service then?
Why wouldn't the 003 be ready for service by 2025? It's taken 001 4 years from launch to service (2012-2016). Why wouldn't we expect a similar timeframe for 003?
Also, even if it's not in service, it doesn't mean it won't be carrying mostly FC31s. I mean, the 002 is not in service right now. But it's sure carrying a lot of J-15s. Correctly if I'm wrong, but I believe the last time we saw a serialized J-15, it was in the 60s.
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If a Type 004 is to be launched by 2025, work needs to be done like right now. So far, no evidence(satellite etc) has hinted type 004 is under construction or is beginning. So, it is unlikely to be ready by 2025.
Just because there's no satellite image doesn't mean it's not being worked out. Work on the 002 began in 2013, but it was only first laid down in 2015. So we probably won't seen any satellite images of the 004 for another 2 years.
We should probably first define what you rate as „will come out“? If you think this means launch, you are maybe right, if you rate this as in service it is impossible.
Just look at the current status of the 003, which I expect to take at least one year until launch and then due to being not yet another Liaoning, shipyard testing, PLAN acceptance and operational testing cannot be done in less time than it took for 002 simply since it is a very different vessel and much more complex one. As such I’m pretty sure that operational ready in 2025 is impossible.