I believe that the 003 will have 4 ships. Conventional powered carriers has their unique advantages. I think China should build at least 4 of these.
CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread
- Thread starter Jeff Head
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I believe that the 003 will have 4 ships. Conventional powered carriers has their unique advantages. I think China should build at least 4 of these.
That's fair. We can use the 00x to refer the x carrier.
For the reason you given, I would say leaks about what model the vessel is will come way ahead we discover the hull construction. For example, I'd heard 075 before 2015 from the Chinese forum, but was only able to confirm until early 2019 when those pictures came out. Similarly, we know the newer LHD will be model 076 way before we can see it.
The story about 003 was there since 2013. Back then reliable sources all said it's going to be steam catapult. But who would know the top leader decided to pause the construction and change to EMALS.
I would say 4x 003 is not that likely. Unless the Chinese faces some serious issues in the next CVN designing/building/operationing.
The 003 is most likely similar to the Kitty Hawk class. 7-80,000 ton with 3 catapults and 3x fighters. When they can build the 3/4 003, they probably can build 004 already, which is comparable to Nimiz/Ford class. Time for the construction is similar yet they gain much marginal performance. If I were to plan out the building I will at most build two 003.
Intrepid
Major
... and when we have evidence that the first Chinese nuclear powered aircraft carrier is OFFICIALLY named "004", we will change our minds.
This time the opposite way as with 002 alias 001A. One day in the future we will get a feel for the Chinese way of classifying aircraft carriers.
unlikely. China would have move on to nuclear powered for longer time at sea
I disagree, I think the construction of CVN is in no way the same as the construction of 003. It will certainly take a lot longer time for CVN to be built. In my opinion, building 4 type 003 will take less time than you think if both Dalian and Jiangnan Cangxin are utilized. A conventional CV is NOT that much worse than a CVN, especially for fulfilling China's needs. The US needs CVNs because almost all of areas she intended to use the CVNs are far far away from the US mainland. China, on the other hand could get away building 4 CV, since the military/strategic hot spots for China are much closer to home.
Building 4 CVs are much less risky and will be done a lot faster and cheaper. Imagine by 2025 all 4 CVs have already launched. That's already a sizable force, to deal with any problems in most of the hot spots in the Asia pacific region.
As long as they are adequately replenished at sea, I don't see the problem in fulfilling the current military needs of the PLAN. The PLAN is NOT fighting a naval war far far away from its home bases.
Force building is also a big issue. 004 will certainly take longer time to build. Therefore if only 2x003 are built before moving on to 004, this would mean that the navy will get their hands on 4 CATOBAR carrier a lot later than the 4x003 scenario. For a big country like China to have a meaningful fix-winged naval aviation strike force, it will need at least 3 CATOBAR at the same time, following the "one on active duty, one on maintenance, one on training" model.
If 004 gets delayed, which I am sure it will get delayed (because you always assume the worst to happen), this means that the PLAN will have only 2x003 CATOBAR. This would be meaningless, as there will be periodic gaps between on duty shifts of the two carriers.
It's not just about stroking our nationalistic ego. It's about risk aversion. It's about making sure the PLAN has enough carrier for operation before jumping into another risky project.
The key point of having nuclear power is NOT just operating range. It is also endurance at speed and rapid deployment.
For example, if Chinese carrier fleets need to sortie to the Arabian Sea which is an integral part of the trade route between Pakistan and Europe - they would have to sail through the Straits of Malacca and around India to get there. Distance-wise it isn't far, Hainan to Pakistan is probably a shorter voyage than from Shanghai to Hawaii - only 3,500 nm compared to 4,500 to Hawaii, or 5,700 nm to go across the entire Pacific.
With a conventional carrier cruising at 16 knots, you can make the 3,500 nm journey from Hainan to Pakistan in 9 days. You can't afford to go much faster unless you want to burn all of your fuel. Sure you can bring a supply ship like the 901 and cruise at 23 knots without having to worry about fuel, but then that one replenishment vessel would become your lifeline. And at 23 knots, the journey would still take over 6 days.
But with a CVN, you can forget about all the constraints like cruising speed and fuel replenishment and keeping a big, defenseless fleet oiler afloat. The moment something bad happens, your carrier can set off from Hainan and sprint the 3,500 nm journey to Pakistan in just over 4 days at 32 knots non-stop.
The US went nuclear for not just the long-term endurance, but also the short-term endurance. If a crisis emerged in Europe while US carriers were stationed on the East Coast, they could make the sprint across the Atlantic into the Mediterranean in just 4 days. With a conventional carrier, it would take 2 to 5 days longer depending on your available supporting resources - an eternity if an enemy has already mobilized.
For example, if Chinese carrier fleets need to sortie to the Arabian Sea which is an integral part of the trade route between Pakistan and Europe - they would have to sail through the Straits of Malacca and around India to get there. Distance-wise it isn't far, Hainan to Pakistan is probably a shorter voyage than from Shanghai to Hawaii - only 3,500 nm compared to 4,500 to Hawaii, or 5,700 nm to go across the entire Pacific.
With a conventional carrier cruising at 16 knots, you can make the 3,500 nm journey from Hainan to Pakistan in 9 days. You can't afford to go much faster unless you want to burn all of your fuel. Sure you can bring a supply ship like the 901 and cruise at 23 knots without having to worry about fuel, but then that one replenishment vessel would become your lifeline. And at 23 knots, the journey would still take over 6 days.
But with a CVN, you can forget about all the constraints like cruising speed and fuel replenishment and keeping a big, defenseless fleet oiler afloat. The moment something bad happens, your carrier can set off from Hainan and sprint the 3,500 nm journey to Pakistan in just over 4 days at 32 knots non-stop.
The US went nuclear for not just the long-term endurance, but also the short-term endurance. If a crisis emerged in Europe while US carriers were stationed on the East Coast, they could make the sprint across the Atlantic into the Mediterranean in just 4 days. With a conventional carrier, it would take 2 to 5 days longer depending on your available supporting resources - an eternity if an enemy has already mobilized.
The escorts aren’t nuclear powered
Well, take a look at the example you are using:
1. The US responding to a crisis in the Mediterranean, which requires a CVN to be sailed across the Atlantic.
2. PLAN need to respond to a crisis in Pakistan, which requires a CVN to be sailed from Hainan to Karachi.
Well, the first example is a real need for the US, because the US is a global power/world police needing to uphold its defense promise to the Europeans.
The second example is not at all a dire need for China and the PLAN. Currently, China's most dire need for CVs are close to home shore: East China Sea and South China Sea. I believe that at least 3 CATOBAR CVs (of the conventional 003 class) will be needed before going on to the CVN, because you will need at least 3 of these ships to make sure there will be one ship on active duty at any given time.
I didn't say that CV should be valued more than CVN. For this I believe no more than 4 ships of 003 should be built. 4 ships presents a complete force structure that will allow at least one ship to be on active duty at all time.
I know CVN is better than CV. But being better doesn't mean it's more suitable for the time being. CVN is bound to have some technical delays, even without such, it would still take longer to build. Having a 4x003 ready to fulfill current needs, will give the PLAN and China plenty of time to sort out the 004 CVN.
003s are more than adequate in potential conflicts China is most likely to have currently: South China Sea, Taiwan Straight or East China Sea. It's better to have a sufficient number of ready-to-fight 003 for the current situation, than to have a couple of 004s still in the making (only to have them arrive a bit sooner).