CSIS Geopolitical Futures Video


AndrewS

Major
Registered Member
A series of videos from CSIS with 4 Geopolitical Futures scenarios.

It was released on 16 September 2020, but many of the talking points are completely divorced from what has already happened in real-life by the time the videos were released.

Eg.
China has already won the 5G race.
China has completely eradicated and contained the Coronavirus, whilst the USA is looking at 3rd and 4th waves.
The Chinese economy is actually powering ahead, whilst the US is struggling.






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AndrewS

Major
Registered Member
No doubt they will never update they videos to reflect the reality or admit they were wrong

You wouldn't expect all projections in the future to come true.

But it's ridiculous to release these scenarios in September 2020, based on fictional events in the past, rather than with the events that actually happened.

China being crushed politically and economically by the Coronavirus?
China had already demonstrated by June 2020 that it could comprehensively defeat multiple small outbreaks.

The USA defeating the coronavirus and powering ahead economically?
That had already been disproven by July 2020 when multiple Coronavirus epicentres appeared in the USA with no effective containment.
 

gelgoog

Captain
Registered Member
Disagree with this point, China has won the development portion of the race, but not the implementation portion, especially with all the US interference.

Not the implementation portion? Are you joking? The US was selling 4G as 5G just a couple of years back while everyone else was rolling out 5G. They were behind right at the starting gate. China will have nation wide 5G before the US rolls it out across all the major cities. Let alone the rural areas.
 

AssassinsMace

Brigadier
The US has poor coverage of 4G. I was once next to a major freeway in a city and coverage was weak going in and out. I doubt they'll do better will 5G. One of the reasons they said the US has poor coverage is because 4G towers are expensive. I read that 5G has lower coverage area than 4G meaning you'll need more to cover the same area.
 

crash8pilot

Junior Member
Registered Member
Last I checked China had the most patents for 5G patents, which gives us a massive head start on the race of 5G rollout. So unless the US and their coerced allies intend on keeping their course of excluding Chinese companies out of the fold, the only way they'd catch up on developing 5G is if they disregarded and violated said patents, or if they swallowed their western hegemonic pride and paid up for using key 5G Chinese patents.... Either way it would be hilarious to see them step off their moral high horse, given how much they crap on us for breaking intellectual propertype.

We'll be rolling out 5G to cities and rural areas across the nation, developing smart cities and improving the overall quality of life... While those that have banned Huawei and ZTE are still caught up finding a work around our patents to deliver a 5G product
 

silentlurker

Junior Member
Registered Member
Last I checked China had the most patents for 5G patents, which gives us a massive head start on the race of 5G rollout. So unless the US and their coerced allies intend on keeping their course of excluding Chinese companies out of the fold, the only way they'd catch up on developing 5G is if they disregarded and violated said patents, or if they swallowed their western hegemonic pride and paid up for using key 5G Chinese patents.... Either way it would be hilarious to see them step off their moral high horse, given how much they crap on us for breaking intellectual propertype.

We'll be rolling out 5G to cities and rural areas across the nation, developing smart cities and improving the overall quality of life... While those that have banned Huawei and ZTE are still caught up finding a work around our patents to deliver a 5G product
Yes, this is why I said China has won development of 5G. It is probably going to win the implementation race, but probably win != has won.
 

weig2000

Senior Member
Disagree with this point, China has won the development portion of the race, but not the implementation portion, especially with all the US interference.

We need to look at the 5G race in several phases:

1. Technology development phase - China won. The 5G standards have largely set and Huawei/ZTE and other companies have most patents and their technologies lead the competitors.

2. 5G deployment phase - If we're talking about China vs. US, then leads by wide margin, in terms of speed and availability. There is no chance that the US will ever catch up with China, judging by the comparison in 5G. If you're talking about preventing Huawei/ZTE from world domination in 5G deployment, then the US has made some dent after two years' intimidation/coercion. But that's fat from the US winning the 5G race in this phase. Huawei/ZTE will still be deployed in many, many countries in the world.

3. 5G application phase - This is actually one of the biggest worries of the US originally. The fear is that unlike 4G stage, which the US believes it had won and created many hugely successful companies and large economic value, if China leads in 5G deployment, it may create new business models and innovative companies to the beat the US. This phase is going to be long term, say 10 years, but China is positioned to lead in a number of potentially related applications such as in smart city, drones, autonomous driving, industrial IoT. But I'd agree it's premature to declare winner for this phase. This would be where the biggest economic impact will be.
 

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