The problem is that until Latin America becomes more of an economic powerhouse (and I sincerely hope that they do), there just isn't enough demand for airlines to justify the need to set up direct flights from Asia to Latin America.
COMAC C929 Widebody Airliner
- Thread starter Iron Man
- Start date
Agree. Having a Chinese and/or Russian option is the best safeguard against Western embargo.
Through China's BRI, they will become the economic powerhouses in their own region, soon enough.
Besides, Latin America now sees China as a viable counterweight to US influences in the region, so I do expect that economic plus trade relations and cooperation between China and Latin America to further deepen in the coming years.
This would also let the Latin American countries understand that there is a better alternative than being forced to become forever subservient to the US.
The demand might not be as vibrant today, but it surely will in the future. So now, we just need to gradually make that happen, and flight routes connecting China and the rest of Asia with Latin America is one of the ways to initiate that transformation.
Last edited:
It took the PRC decades to stand on its own feet, it quite frankly is a geopolitical/economic miracle if we looked at the course of human history. I doubt that same miracle will ever be repeated, and that Latin America won't just turn the page overnight despite the backings of BRI. I'm not trying to be a party pooper, I'm just trying to be realistic... and I just can't see that demand to travel without connecting flights to Latin America being created within the next couple years when airlines are expected to start operating the CR929.
Back when I was in college, I'd bitch and moan about the 16 hour flight it took to fly from Hong Kong to JFK. I can't imagine how much it'd suck sitting 20 something hours in economy in order to fly from China to Latin America. Now that I work for the airlines, flying 20 something hours also creates quite the puzzle to solve from a flight ops crewing perspective, especially when it comes to flight time limitations. The day we see direct flights from China to Latin America is the day we see commercial planes that can cruise viably faster than Mach 0.85. The CR929 won't be that jet.
Now to bring things back onto topic thread, a more realistic view/expectation is that the CR929 absolutely needs to have the legs to reach Mexico City.... where passengers can then connect to the Latin America market via Aeromexico, ideally in some sort of a codeshare service (for example both China Eastern and Aeromexico are SkyTeam members). That's more of a win-win geopolitical scenario or expectation than flying direct from Daxing or Pudong to Santiago or Lima.
Last edited:
lcloo
Captain
Developing a cargo plane variant of CR-929 would be good for air freight between China and far off destinations like Latin America. After all China is a trade powerhouse. The time saving by cutting month long sea journey to just days would offset the high air freight costs for high value goods, couriers and e-commerce companies like Taobao, JD.com and TMall.
Putin said since the US started money printing with massive QE that US increased its imports by 50%. But not its exports. It is kind of obvious the US wants to drop the tariffs to get even more Chinese goods for cheap before the inevitable massive inflation hits China and thus US import prices. Already their excessive imports are jamming up ports and transport infrastructure all over the US. The US will probably put the tariffs back once all the dollars hit China, and they will try to make the sanctions in coordination with Europe this time. If their provocation with Taiwan works then they will also default on their debt to China. Just like they did to Russia. Except Russia can take its money back by annexing chunks of Europe.
The problem of South America is poor infrastructure. The distances are too small for aviation to make a dent in most cases. And rail is expensive and they never manage to fund it. China needs to convince those countries to invest in rail so transport from the Atlantic to the Pacific can happen without going through the sea chokepoints.
If China manages to develop both South America and Africa, then those two can be a source of air travel, just like North America and Europe. The absolute populations aren't that different.
Last edited:
The West will certify the CR929 if it's operating safely in China and China threatens not to certify the latest Boeing or Airbus plane. They all regard China as the largest future growth market. Russian parts might be a problem, but China could make a version without Russian components. The Ukraine war will probably have concluded anyway when the CR929 enters service, so today's sanctions on Russia don't really matter
CR929 builds the first prototype will cancel the follow-up
China is now disgusted with cooperating with Russia
Don't think that China and Russia have good relations
95% chance of death in joint Chinese-Russian project
We don't like the Russians, it's just a temporary cooperation
China is now disgusted with cooperating with Russia
Don't think that China and Russia have good relations
95% chance of death in joint Chinese-Russian project
We don't like the Russians, it's just a temporary cooperation
I get it that China prefers to have its own native industry. As can be seen with what happened with Russia, where the West just screwed them over after all the aircraft they bought from them now get no parts and service, you just can't trust foreign suppliers anyway. Not with anything strategic like transportation sector. Russia will have trouble next with gas turbines for electric power generation they imported from the West. You will see.
China also had a bad experience with how the MiG-21 tech transfer was done in Soviet times and I guess they never quite forgot about it. But the thing is, you can't just expect to do a complex project like this without outside help and expect to succeed, the result we can see in Indian projects. Like Kaveri engine. You always get a half baked piece of crap which does not work properly.
Everyone knows in the long run China expects to do the same thing with aviation they did with the high speed rail purchases. Anyone with half a brain at least. Which is why the West will try to kill the major Chinese aviation projects. You will see. Contrary to their rail industry, the aviation industry has huge political power in those countries and is joined to the hip with the MIC. You already had no engines for MA-700 and had never ending ice tests for C919 in Canada. Russia has the largest airspace on Earth because of, well, geography. So it is in China's own best interest to keep decent relations with the Russian government in the aviation space. Try drawing a line from China to North America someday.
Russia is also a not insignificant aviation market by itself. It has huge land area and cities are quite spread out. So allowing Russia to sell some parts or aircraft in exchange for getting access to their market isn't a particularly bad idea either. It also mitigates risk in case crap happens. Russia is in a weak enough position China could make them go into a joint venture with a Chinese company to setup factories with a full production cycle in China proper like they did with Western automobiles. Boeing and Airbus will never do it.
China also had a bad experience with how the MiG-21 tech transfer was done in Soviet times and I guess they never quite forgot about it. But the thing is, you can't just expect to do a complex project like this without outside help and expect to succeed, the result we can see in Indian projects. Like Kaveri engine. You always get a half baked piece of crap which does not work properly.
Everyone knows in the long run China expects to do the same thing with aviation they did with the high speed rail purchases. Anyone with half a brain at least. Which is why the West will try to kill the major Chinese aviation projects. You will see. Contrary to their rail industry, the aviation industry has huge political power in those countries and is joined to the hip with the MIC. You already had no engines for MA-700 and had never ending ice tests for C919 in Canada. Russia has the largest airspace on Earth because of, well, geography. So it is in China's own best interest to keep decent relations with the Russian government in the aviation space. Try drawing a line from China to North America someday.
Russia is also a not insignificant aviation market by itself. It has huge land area and cities are quite spread out. So allowing Russia to sell some parts or aircraft in exchange for getting access to their market isn't a particularly bad idea either. It also mitigates risk in case crap happens. Russia is in a weak enough position China could make them go into a joint venture with a Chinese company to setup factories with a full production cycle in China proper like they did with Western automobiles. Boeing and Airbus will never do it.