COMAC C919


by78

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tphuang

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I see NMA like I see any other early Boeing project announcement. The lead time between when they announce these ideas and when they actually commit to a project is always at least 5 years. Until you see them commit to a project timeline it’s vaporware, and that’s pretty in line with the product cycle for a new Boeing design being at least a decade away even without the pandemic.
Except that almost nobody thought Boeing would wait until near end of this decade before announcing an all new project.
RISE is an innovation on fan design, not components, and only just launched as a project with no clear product pipeline. Ultrafan is a tech demonstrator for R&D purposes, not something intended for production. Neither of these projects are ready for adoption, hence the point about needing time to accumulate new gas turbine R&D.
Exactly, they have projects that is supposed to yield real products for new project. RR Ultrafan was definitely started with NMA as one of the possible airliner to be paired with.

Without all new airliner project, engine projects also don't move as fast.
Extremely unlikely.

Realistically you don’t really need an *all* new design for the C919 to be competitive in the narrow body space. You just need to iterate on the C919 the way the A320neo iterated. It’s not even entirely clear that a long range narrow body the way you’re defining it would be what the market wants in the 2030s.
well, that's how the market has moved for many years now. I anticipate that eVTOL ideas to take over the short range/regional stuff. After that, everyone will want single aisle families that can occupy large segments of the market. Single fleet type is a huge thing for airlines.

Boeing’s problem is symptomatic of Wallstreet’s negative influence on American industries. Boeings executives are more interested in pumping up their stock prices then developing new products. All the money Boeing spent on stock buybacks in the past 10 years is probably enough to develop the NMA instead of patching a 50+ years old platform.
Yes, I called BYD the anti-Boeing, but I really should've called it the anti-Wall Street. Boeing is a typical example of company ruined by Wall Street.

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should be obvious here, but Boeing is in trouble if the current geopolitical tension between China/US doesn't come down. This will be a huge problem from Boeing. Again, a Boeing that wins 30% market share in narrow body range is going to sink into irrelevance, especially if Wall Street continues to push for short term profit at Boeing.

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This a good window for COMAC. This is definitely causing a lot of Western aerospace companies nervous who have been used to cushy sales out of China. I think Airbus is likely to command a huge portion of airplane sales from China for a while. The current Biden administration don't seem to want to sell anything to China.
 

latenlazy

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Except that almost nobody thought Boeing would wait until near end of this decade before announcing an all new project.
Everyone thought Boeing would be doing a supersonic transport in the mid 2000s. In my experience it’s more sensible to read the market dynamics than to read industry gossip hovering around Boeing, especially with this iteration of its corporate leadership. Speaking ideally, they should have just started a new narrow body design like a decade ago and gone with a three tier fleet with new narrow body, 787, and 777X. NMA and 787 have way too much overlap.
Exactly, they have projects that is supposed to yield real products for new project. RR Ultrafan was definitely started with NMA as one of the possible airliner to be paired with.


Without all new airliner project, engine projects also don't move as fast.
Ultrafan is *way* too big to be for an NMA. That one was *definitely* for R&D not for potential product development. Anyways, both RISE and Ultrafan aren’t exactly ready for production projects. I don’t think you can count them as turnkey pieces of technology just waiting for a new plane to carry them.

well, that's how the market has moved for many years now. I anticipate that eVTOL ideas to take over the short range/regional stuff. After that, everyone will want single aisle families that can occupy large segments of the market. Single fleet type is a huge thing for airlines.
We’ll see where the market goes. Electric planes are probably another two cycles away. Even if they nibble away at shorter routes they’re not taking anything that’s 1000 miles or more. Maybe not even anything beyond 500 miles.
 

luosifen

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C919 completes successful trial flight before formal delivery​


2022-11-21 11:03:03 chinadaily.com.cn Editor : Li Yan
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A C919 jet takes flight at the 14th Airshow China in Zhuhai, Guangdong province on Nov 9, 2022. (Photo by Wang Zhuangfei/China Daily)
A C919 jet completed its trial flight successfully on Sunday morning, departing from Pudong International Airport in Shanghai and landing at the Yangzhou Taizhou International Airport in Yangzhou, Jiangsu province, reported Sunday by the official WeChat account of the Yangzhou Taizhou Airport.
It was a test flight of the C919 (B001F) before its formal delivery to China Eastern Airlines, the first global customer of C919.
Besides nearly 100 support personnel from the Test Flight Center and Customer Service Center of the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC), the first batch of pilots for the C919 jet of China Eastern Airlines also arrived at the Yangzhou Taizhou International Airport for the trial flight.
Multiple departments of the Yangzhou Taizhou International Airport, including air traffic management, security check, maintenance, special vehicle and site service departments, worked together and guaranteed the successful test flight, the report said.

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gelgoog

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Everyone thought Boeing would be doing a supersonic transport in the mid 2000s. In my experience it’s more sensible to read the market dynamics than to read industry gossip hovering around Boeing, especially with this iteration of its corporate leadership. Speaking ideally, they should have just started a new narrow body design like a decade ago and gone with a three tier fleet with new narrow body, 787, and 777X. NMA and 787 have way too much overlap.
Boeing needs to finish the 737MAX 7 and 10 certification and push the 777X out into production. Otherwise they are really going to go down the tubes. They will lose out to the Airbus A220 and A321NEO from not even having a product which can compete with either. And the regular 777 is pretty much obsolete and out competed by the A350. So either Boeing upgrade it into the 777X which is larger or that will stop selling as well. You already have the Gulf states with Emirates and Qatar threatening Boeing unless they deliver this aircraft.

The NMA was a pointless waste of a design much like the Sonic Cruiser. I never expected that aircraft to be made to be honest. They should have spent their time instead on a proper 737 replacement. And they still need to work on one. But right now they no longer have the capital even with government pork barrel handouts like the Air Force tanker program. That is what you get for distributing dividends instead of working on your product.
 

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