Chinese UAV/UCAV development

Gloire_bb said:

Well, I don't think either Russia or China really want to show that China does support Russia with actual weapons during the conflict.
After the conflict - probably many things will change.

Click to expand...

The fact that it's been 4 months and we've not seen any sign of Russians buying Chinese drones is concerning. And I don't mean top of the line military ones, but commercial ones like the one we saw the Ukrainians use.

If Russians are too stubborn to buy any now they probably won't once the war is over. "Why would we need Chinese drones? We can make our own!"

Gloire_bb said:

Well, in fact they do stand a good chance of operating smoothly. Just don't fly them over the line of contact in areas with known presence of major enemy SAM systems.

Click to expand...

"known enemy SAM systems" is the problem. Ukrainian SAMs are mobile and thanks to NATO intelligence are likely turned off 99% making traditional SEAD not possible.

Gloire_bb said:

I.e. near the frontline - it's still a very viable maneuverable "balloon" - raised observation point with very powerful optics/IR/SIGINT/SAR sensors and EW(provided we have enough onboard power) - suitable for both reconnaissance, spotting, and even interference.
Larger drones(HALEs) can drop stand-off PGMs against targets of opportunity, too (though those bite quite heavily into loiter time).

Click to expand...

If you're only going to use them near frontlines, what's the point? That's just duplicating what the the RuAF is doing right now.

Gloire_bb said:

Consequently, in the areas without significant SAM presence - drones can be more aggressive without suffering prohibitive losses.
Or, if the prise is worthy - even MALE/HALE drones can penetrate and bypass those areas at low altitudes, and climb back near the target area.

Neither Ukraine nor even Russia can have SAMs everywhere on a theater this large.

Click to expand...

The advantage of having a drone is it enables you to do more things, like missions that would be considered too risky for piloted aircraft.
If you're going to babysit your drones you may as well not bother.

FairAndUnbiased said:

if it's cheap enough, trading 1 for 1 with a SAM might not be so bad. And it doesn't have to go to the front lines to act as a recon asset.

Click to expand...

For WL-2 that could be correct, it would depend on the manufacturing cost. My point is, instead of one big drone with a 500kg payload, why not 20 smaller ones with a 25kg payload? That same SAM site that took out one WL-2 with one missile will need 20 to take out 20 smaller drones. That's much more uneconomical in the long run.

My question would be....what are the real advantages of having one large drone or 20 with 25kg? You have the advantage of only requiring one person/team to control the drone instead of 20. But drones can be pretty easy to operate, and operators can be far from frontlines.

To me it's putting all your eggs in one basket.

Abominable said:

For WL-2 that could be correct, it would depend on the manufacturing cost. My point is, instead of one big drone with a 500kg payload, why not 20 smaller ones with a 25kg payload? That same SAM site that took out one WL-2 with one missile will need 20 to take out 20 smaller drones. That's much more uneconomical in the long run.

My question would be....what are the real advantages of having one large drone or 20 with 25kg? You have the advantage of only requiring one person/team to control the drone instead of 20. But drones can be pretty easy to operate, and operators can be far from frontlines.

To me it's putting all your eggs in one basket.

Click to expand...

There will naturally be various tradeoffs when you go down in size though (in general less capable, although, like you said, cheaper and more attritable as well).

Abominable said:

The fact that it's been 4 months and we've not seen any sign of Russians buying Chinese drones is concerning. And I don't mean top of the line military ones, but commercial ones like the one we saw the Ukrainians use.

If Russians are too stubborn to buy any now they probably won't once the war is over. "Why would we need Chinese drones? We can make our own!"

"known enemy SAM systems" is the problem. Ukrainian SAMs are mobile and thanks to NATO intelligence are likely turned off 99% making traditional SEAD not possible.

If you're only going to use them near frontlines, what's the point? That's just duplicating what the the RuAF is doing right now.

The advantage of having a drone is it enables you to do more things, like missions that would be considered too risky for piloted aircraft.
If you're going to babysit your drones you may as well not bother.

For WL-2 that could be correct, it would depend on the manufacturing cost. My point is, instead of one big drone with a 500kg payload, why not 20 smaller ones with a 25kg payload? That same SAM site that took out one WL-2 with one missile will need 20 to take out 20 smaller drones. That's much more uneconomical in the long run.

My question would be....what are the real advantages of having one large drone or 20 with 25kg? You have the advantage of only requiring one person/team to control the drone instead of 20. But drones can be pretty easy to operate, and operators can be far from frontlines.

To me it's putting all your eggs in one basket.

Click to expand...

“Russia to launch production of combat drones in three shifts”

Latest -

According to Aero Engine Corporation of China, on July 1st, the company signed the first order for the 1000kw class commercial turboshaft engine "ASE100" that was originally developed by the company. The ASE100 will be used to power the large tilt rotor UAV "rainbow".

edit - The ASE100 will fully meet the output demand of a 5 or 6 ton twin-engine helicopter or a 4 or 5 ton single-engine helicopter. Naturally, the CH-10, which is the tilt rotor UAV of the Saihong series, does not apply. The weight is more than 10 times that of CH-10, so is it some kind of new model? interesting

sunnymaxi said:

Latest -

According to Aero Engine Corporation of China, on July 1st, the company signed the first order for the 1000kw class commercial turboshaft engine "ASE100" that was originally developed by the company. The ASE100 will be used to power the large tilt rotor UAV "rainbow".

edit - The ASE100 will fully meet the output demand of a 5 or 6 ton twin-engine helicopter or a 4 or 5 ton single-engine helicopter. Naturally, the CH-10, which is the tilt rotor UAV of the Saihong series, does not apply. The weight is more than 10 times that of CH-10, so is it some kind of new model? interesting

Click to expand...

Here's a larger image showing that tilt-rotor UAV.

Abominable said:

The fact that it's been 4 months and we've not seen any sign of Russians buying Chinese drones is concerning. And I don't mean top of the line military ones, but commercial ones like the one we saw the Ukrainians use.

If Russians are too stubborn to buy any now they probably won't once the war is over. "Why would we need Chinese drones? We can make our own!"

Click to expand...

Not sure anyone wants China being a "supporter of aggression". Neither China nor ironically Russia itself.
The battlefield advantage of drones is not negligible, but absolutely not worth it.

Abominable said:

"known enemy SAM systems" is the problem. Ukrainian SAMs are mobile and thanks to NATO intelligence are likely turned off 99% making traditional SEAD not possible.

Click to expand...

Well, at the very least, they won't cross the line of contact (and won't really approach to close to it either).

Furthermore - while precise positions may be unknown - approximate positions are very much findable.
p.s. NATO intelligence doesn't mean too much for anti-air operations over Eastern Ukraine - Ukraine can for the most part only rely on itself there. And Soviet army air defense has looked more or less like this for almost half a century - it's tricks are known till at very least late 1960s. It's about as traditional of a threat as possible.
Moreover, Russia has the very same system of systems - with more advanced and all-round better versions of all the same systems - and more knowledge on those systems than probably anyone else - Ukrainian AD network is a (very large) part of the very same network Russian one came from - many people on two sides literally studied together.

Abominable said:

The advantage of having a drone is it enables you to do more things, like missions that would be considered too risky for piloted aircraft.
If you're going to babysit your drones you may as well not bother.

Click to expand...

I'd like to point out that it is a mistake.

Drone(unmanned) doesn't mean expendable - it only means that human presence on board isn't justified by the mission. Much like piloted platform can be attributable. Cynical, sure but it's life. Yes, unmanned platforms often are expendable - but those are just overlapping bubbles and nothing more.

200 mln-priced (almost a 054A frigate, and a whole bunch of F-35As!) RQ-4C isn't exactly for "missions too risky for piloted aircraft".
It's to fly longer and higher without humans, their cockpits, life support systems, and physical and psychological limitations.

Same is true for many other systems and situations. For example, A-10s were originally procured (in modern dollars) for significantly less money than MQ-9s.

If observation function doesn't need a person on board (which it doesn't) - it's good to don't have him there. If function does demand for him(so-called "manned drones", COIN aircraft etc) - well, it's the other thing.

Gloire_bb said:

Not sure anyone wants China being a "supporter of aggression". Neither China nor ironically Russia itself.
The battlefield advantage of drones is not negligible, but absolutely not worth it.

Click to expand...

Maybe China would be uncomfortable selling military drones right now, but private Chinese companies can sell whatever they want to Russia.

America could sanction the individual companies, but who cares about that? Just set up a shell company and you're golden. America does a lousy job enforcing sanctions on companies anyway.

Gloire_bb said:

I'd like to point out that it is a mistake.

Drone(unmanned) doesn't mean expendable - it only means that human presence on board isn't justified by the mission. Much like piloted platform can be attributable. Cynical, sure but it's life. Yes, unmanned platforms often are expendable - but those are just overlapping bubbles and nothing more.

200 mln-priced (almost a 054A frigate, and a whole bunch of F-35As!) RQ-4C isn't exactly for "missions too risky for piloted aircraft".
It's to fly longer and higher without humans, their cockpits, life support systems, and physical and psychological limitations.

Same is true for many other systems and situations. For example, A-10s were originally procured (in modern dollars) for significantly less money than MQ-9s.

If observation function doesn't need a person on board (which it doesn't) - it's good to don't have him there. If function does demand for him(so-called "manned drones", COIN aircraft etc) - well, it's the other thing.

Click to expand...

Russia isn't deploying $200 million drones though is it? We're talking about cheap drones that cost tens of thousands not millions.

American drones are massively overpriced thanks to corruption (those politicians need to get their cut in lobbying fees), I'm sure the RQ-4C doesn't cost anywhere near that much to manufacture.

Right now Russia has two options for deep strikes in Ukraine: medium range ballistic missiles and strike/bomber aircraft...and we've seen very little of the latter.

Right now that's not stopping the Ukrainians from resupplying so you need to go back to the drawing board.

Interstellar said:

“Russia to launch production of combat drones in three shifts”

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

So Russia is going from hardly producing any UCAVs to mass producing them? Looks like that Ukrainian kamikaze drone finally woke them up.

What's the bet these will be drones assembled from components imported from China? It's not like WW2 where to mass produce tanks you just need a lot of steel.

Abominable said:

Maybe China would be uncomfortable selling military drones right now, but private Chinese companies can sell whatever they want to Russia.

America could sanction the individual companies, but who cares about that? Just set up a shell company and you're golden. America does a lousy job enforcing sanctions on companies anyway.

Click to expand...

well, proper military drones are quite easily attributable.
If you don't mind, I propose to drop this line of our conversation - it's interesting, but it's politics.

Abominable said:

Russia isn't deploying $200 million drones though is it? We're talking about cheap drones that cost tens of thousands not millions.

American drones are massively overpriced thanks to corruption (those politicians need to get their cut in lobbying fees), I'm sure the RQ-4C doesn't cost anywhere near that much to manufacture.

Click to expand...

But what Russia currently lacks is actually big drones - those are visible.
Small drones for everyone rn are commercial ones, they're perfectly available(and that their supply is somehow continuing despite companies leaving the market is probably more important).
p.s. while it is a big assumption, I think it's reasonable to expect that military products of the same country are overpriced in more or less the same consistent manner. Ratios between comparable(full-sized) manned and unmanned aircraft are much less favourable to drones than it's typically assumed.

Abominable said:

So Russia is going from hardly producing any UCAVs to mass producing them? Looks like that Ukrainian kamikaze drone finally woke them up.

What's the bet these will be drones assembled from components imported from China? It's not like WW2 where to mass produce tanks you just need a lot of steel.

Click to expand...

Well, the main product of Kronstadt is Orion MALE UCAV. Until 2022 it was a delayed product finally reaching service (it was in testing and evaluation for more than 7 years, including combat evaluation in Syria back in 2019 IIRC) - and IIRC the whole reason behind the delay was to make it truly local(including key components - optics and engine). Now they're rushing the airframe line, of course.
Same is probably happening to weapons for it - we had a few very interesting footages back during the early spring - but apparently test ammo stock ended, and now they have to get production ones somewhere.
Thus the irony - large and expensive(every single one of them is comparable to the whole Orion drone) LACMs are essentially endless for Russia, but stupid and small lased-guided gliding bombs are a rare commodity.

sunnymaxi said:

Latest -

According to Aero Engine Corporation of China, on July 1st, the company signed the first order for the 1000kw class commercial turboshaft engine "ASE100" that was originally developed by the company. The ASE100 will be used to power the large tilt rotor UAV "rainbow".

edit - The ASE100 will fully meet the output demand of a 5 or 6 ton twin-engine helicopter or a 4 or 5 ton single-engine helicopter. Naturally, the CH-10, which is the tilt rotor UAV of the Saihong series, does not apply. The weight is more than 10 times that of CH-10, so is it some kind of new model? interesting

Click to expand...

Dramatic landing of Rotor UAV on the ship while the ship is apparently moving! Amazing