Chinese UAV/UCAV development

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Blitzo

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Plausible deniability.

A Chinese military micro UAV crashes or gets shot down, and its proof positive of Chinese military involvement. A downed commercial drone widely sold all around the world proves nothing.

Err... okay, but I still do not believe based on the video shots we have right now, that we have evidence to suggest the Chinese individuals there are there in any official capacity.
Also, it wouldn't be impossible for China to say that any downed Chinese military micro UAV was merely one being operated by local combatants in the region who had procured it through various "third party" means. It wouldn't be the first time that a Chinese military drone exported to another nation has crashed either.


I would imagine that for these specific individuals featured in the video, they would likely be civilians there by their own choice. They would never have allowed themselves to be filmed and interviewed if they were Chinese special forces there on a covert mission.

However, these guys may be being promoted as cover for real Chinese covert operations personnel to operate in the region, so if and when pictures and videos of Chinese personnel operating in Syria do surface, the Chinese government could point to that video and suggest they are just Chinese nationals there of their own free choice.

It could be possible that they are there as "cover" for real Chinese covert operatives, but I think it's also possible that they may merely be civilians there on their own accord without any meaningful coordination with the Chinese govt or military.
I'm sure the Chinese govt could point to this video or similar cases and use them as plausible deniability for if any of their actual operatives get captured... but in this specific case, I dont' think we have any reason to believe these DJI drone operators are related to the Chinese govt at all, yet.

Of course, the fact that these individuals may be unrelated to the Chinese govt or military doesn't mean there is no possibility that there are other Chinese operatives in the region.


I think it is a safe bet that the Chinese government would have covert operatives on the ground in Syria from early in the conflict.

They have their own serious concerns about radicalised nationals going there to get training and organised so they could return to launch attacks at home. Even if they did not have such serious direct security concerns, they would want reliable intelligence on what is happening over there.

American Intelligence prefers to observe from a safe distance by send drones, satellites, hack telephones and emails, and developing locals as assets. Chinese intelligence does all of the above, but also have a proud and celebrated history of being very effective at getting agents and operatives right into the thick of the action to provide first-hand observations and intelligence unobtainable otherwise. Its a more risky approach, but it does produce results.

I have little doubt that Chinese agents in the field were keeping close tabs on Uighur extremists and had detailed and extensive target lists ready and waiting when the Russians started their bombing campaign.

The real question, I think, would be whether China has made its assets in the field in Syria available to the Russian and French to help them with targeting information, after action damage assessments etc.

Um, all I'm willing to say here is that I also believe the Chinese govt likely has various operatives in the region, but I'm not willing to compare Chinese intelligence methods with US intelligence in terms of how much "in the field" work they do, given I don't think either of us really know how much of work both sides really do in that regard... If anything I think the US would have a far more extensive SOF and HUMINT presence in the middle east, at any rate, simply on the basis of their much greater resources and longer past presence there.

But this is all a tangent -- I think the key point, is that at the moment there is little to no evidence from the videos to suggest the Chinese operators of the DJI drones are related to the Chinese govt or military.
 

no_name

Colonel
I think these guys may be volunteers unaffiliated with the government. I have read about them already operating before the recent terrorist attack and hostage event.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
If they were a TV crew, then it was unprofessional and irresponsible for them to take such a direct part in the conflict.

They were supposed to report the news, not make it. To cross that line puts all Chinese foreign correspondents at risk. But this is getting OT.
 
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