Chinese shipbuilding industry

Neurosmith said:

This seems like a strategy to not only shift the global shipping industry away from Chinese shipbuilders but also to degrade China's shipbuilding capacity in the long run. A 90% drop in business, if kept up for the long term, means that most of China's shipbuilding companies will have to shut down or consolidate. This in turn will massively hamper China's flexibility and capacity in this industry in times of crisis - such as war.

So the US strategy is actually a twofer: drive business away from Chinese shipbuilders whilst condemning said shipbuilders to an early grave.

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Luckily, American strategies are never long term. They dilly-dally and then they fade, just like this port fee. China has a 3 year buffer from the order backlog to keep operating from. 3 years is an eternity in an administration that wavers their strategy every week. They've already called off the port fee and that's before China even had to retaliate with our port fees (waived to Chinese-built ships) or airport fees to Boeing. The US economy wouldn't survive a 3 year trade war at this rate; they will make themselves irrelevant.

By the way, the 90% reduction was specifically for bulk carriers. For general ship builds, the split was 55% of the global total to Korea and 35% to China, which is farrrr from a 90% drop.

The silver lining is that if this even goes on past the 2028 backlog, China's naval build-up can also get a boost from any unused capacity and that will give them an even bigger buffer.

escobar said:

South Korea Leads Shipbuilding Industry Amid U.S.-China Trade Disputes

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Is this like a republished article? I think someone posted similar before...

Neurosmith said:

This seems like a strategy to not only shift the global shipping industry away from Chinese shipbuilders but also to degrade China's shipbuilding capacity in the long run. A 90% drop in business, if kept up for the long term, means that most of China's shipbuilding companies will have to shut down or consolidate. This in turn will massively hamper China's flexibility and capacity in this industry in times of crisis - such as war.

So the US strategy is actually a twofer: drive business away from Chinese shipbuilders whilst condemning said shipbuilders to an early grave.

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That's the crux. Unlikely to be long term without Chinese response.

Labour limitations and shipyard size will eventually limit Korean ship building. China is large enough trader partner that they will be able to keep Chinese shipyards going for a long time.

US tried to put a fee on Chinese ships, but failed. If it does go through, US would hurt just as much if not more. Their ports are inefficient and costly. More likely shipping companies will offload in other countries and US costs of export will increase.

Neurosmith said:

if kept up for the long term

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If you followed the industry, then you would already know that big quarterly swings in orders and deliveries by country and type are perfectly normal. For example:



Come back after a couple years if you want solid conclusions.

escobar said:

South Korea Leads Shipbuilding Industry Amid U.S.-China Trade Disputes

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Nah, that information has been going around for some time now. I think all of us here (at least those who paid regular attention to this industry) is all aware.

No need to bring up redundant information.

Great. So what can China do to strike the US hard enough in the (non-military) shipping sector?

ACuriousPLAFan said:

Great. So what can China do to strike the US hard enough in the (non-military) shipping sector?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1913027385424814249

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Direct:
1. Charge fees for non-Chinese ships docking in China; it's useless to dock in the US for free if you cannot pick up the goods at the manufacturer for free. If you gotta pay the same money here or there, they cancel out.
2. Charge landing fees for Boeing aircraft. You'll have European support on this.
3. Set up Chinese shipping companies with Chinese ships that just ship from China to non-US countries. If the US throws a tantrum with secondary sanctions on any country that allows them to dock, it's essentially asking countries to choose between China and the US and China is now the largest economy by PPP and by far the largest global trader.
4. Diversity our ship-building type away from bulk carrier. There are still types of ships out there like LNG that Korea has like 90% of the market on. We need to take that and more away from them if they are gonna be eating some of our food in bulk carrier.

Indirect: Long term, we need to reduce the power of the dollar and America's purchasing heft. Make them a smaller part of the global economy by developing ourselves and helping to develop poorer trading partners with our building capacity. If the US screws up any more and loses USD reserve status, they die immediately.

manqiangrexue said:

1. Charge fees for non-Chinese ships docking in China; it's useless to dock in the US for free if you cannot pick up the goods at the manufacturer for free. If you gotta pay the same money here or there, they cancel out.

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Yeah I think it's pretty easy to have a direct counter.

Along the same lines you put but a bit more targeted and is just a mirror opposite of the US ship fee system.

Any ship that dock in a US port and doesn't have to pay a fee, will have to pay a fee if they dock in china.

So then the world will separate into those who dock at the US and those who dock at china. And these groups of ships will be mutually exclusive. Obviously it will cost more to use non Chinese ships, and this will undoubtedly increase US import and export costs.

However This new US fee on Chinese ship only apply if the Chinese ship is used to dock in the US, not companies that have already ordered chinese ships or have Chinese ships in their inventory. So there will be a bifurcation.

Between the two countries, Chinese ports are much bigger, more efficient and lower cost than US ports. China can build more ships than the US. Thus any bifurcation will see china being the bigger commercial maritime economy, win out. Most companies will still rather trade with china and dock at china thus will still use Chinese ships.to do so, as Korean ships will not be cost effective anymore.

MortyandRick said:

Any ship that dock in a US port and doesn't have to pay a fee, will have to pay a fee if they dock in china.

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That's basically what I said except the way I worded it, doesn't make us look US-centric. Our rules are ours, and don't depend on American rules. Therefore it closes the loophole for the US to just charge and take all the fees from everyone with us taking nothing. It prevents our rule from being countered simply by having different rates for different ships at US docks, high for Chinese ships, trivial for others. It also prevents companies from using falsified US payment documents to get out of payment with us because for sure, American port authorities are not going to be cooperative if they get a call from China's port authorities asking to authenticate an American payment document.