Chinese semiconductor industry


FairAndUnbiased

Junior Member
Registered Member
My latest article is about China and Lam Research so I thought there may be an interest. This article was published as my Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter. The articles available on Seeking Alpha's website are abridged versions of these newsletters also available on Seeking Alpha.
Thank you for the paper.

Just a small thing: you may have a typo in the title of section 1 (Semiconductor vs Semiconductor industry).

What are your thoughts on AMEC as a future competitor for Lam, since it is also in the etch and deposition market, has recently won a 2018 VLSI small supplier award and has reportedly sold equipment even to leading edge customers like TSMC?
 

asta

Banned Idiot
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They don't even know what is upcoming.

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ASML only makes 17% of their revenue in China (and that's going to decrease given how quickly TSMC is building EUVL fabs in everywhere but China - ha); even assuming the SMEE isn't vaporware (it is), the EUVL growth would more than compensate for lost China sales and ArFi platform growth in China (if it doesn't get banned) just because customers like diversification
 

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ansy1968

Major
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ASML only makes 17% of their revenue in China (and that's going to decrease given how quickly TSMC is building EUVL fabs in everywhere but China - ha); even assuming the SMEE isn't vaporware (it is), the EUVL growth would more than compensate for lost China sales and ArFi platform growth in China (if it doesn't get banned) just because customers like diversification
@asta Yes you're correct, but how many can afford an EUVL and how many can operate them 3, TSMC, SAMSUNG and Intel (IP steal from TSMC), its a niche market. after 2025 ASML income will be lessen after fulfilling those orders there will be a lag cause the big 3 need to re coup its investment and we may see a glut ( who are their main customer its China...lol). Bro whether its a vaporware (DUVL) or not the Chinese market will be closed and good luck for ASML to find new customer for their overpriced product. I'm not an expert but I can comprehend the crucial role SMEE 28NM DUVL will and had played. A monopoly buster, hope you stay around cause there will be more good news coming out inside China, you will be surprise! :cool:
 

asta

Banned Idiot
Registered Member
@asta Yes you're correct, but how many can afford an EUVL and how many can operate them 3, TSMC, SAMSUNG and Intel (IP steal from TSMC), its a niche market. after 2025 ASML income will be lessen after fulfilling those orders there will be a lag cause the big 3 need to re coup its investment
Once TSMC goes on their globe-trotting adventure building EUVL fabs in Japan, Arizona, Taiwan and Germany; the US forces Samsung to do the same and Intel steals KR/TW technology and builds their own EUVL fabs - ASML will be overflowing with money and they will be able to push the frontier in high-NA EUVL, thus driving the next generation of investment and leaving China far far far far far behind.
and we may see a glut ( who are their main customer its China...lol). Bro whether its a vaporware (DUVL) or not the Chinese market will be closed and good luck for ASML to find new customer for their overpriced product. I'm not an expert but I can comprehend the crucial role SMEE 28NM DUVL will and had played. A monopoly buster, hope you stay around cause there will be more good news coming out inside China, you will be surprise! :cool:
SMEE is vaporware, no one can replace ASML's ArFi's sales in China. No one. Well, unless the US bans it or makes its vassal, the EU ban those shipments to the EU but the US holds all the cards given how cucked Germany (Zeiss/ASML optics) is as well as the Cymer laser made in San Diego.
 

ansy1968

Major
Registered Member
Once TSMC goes on their globe-trotting adventure building EUVL fabs in Japan, Arizona, Taiwan and Germany; the US forces Samsung to do the same and Intel steals KR/TW technology and builds their own EUVL fabs - ASML will be overflowing with money and they will be able to push the frontier in high-NA EUVL, thus driving the next generation of investment and leaving China far far far far far behind.
Not in Japan (they may using a Japanese DUVL) Yup ASML had reach its zenith but like I said after 2025 where will they get the addition revenue as most of those FAB need to re-coup its investment? TSMC is sounding an alarm about a possible glut in the market but nobody is listening? Bro I think you're smart enough to answer that question and I'm all ears.
SMEE is vaporware, no one can replace ASML's ArFi's sales in China. No one. Well, unless the US bans it or makes its vassal, the EU ban those shipments to the EU but the US holds all the cards given how cucked Germany (Zeiss/ASML optics) is as well as the Cymer laser made in San Diego.
Okay that post of yours is a click bait and I hope some members will not fall for it, I'm not here to change your opinion (if possible please reread this thread) and hope you stay around and not get banned cause eventually with more news coming from Inside China I want you to be there to rebuke those claimed. :cool:
 

FairAndUnbiased

Junior Member
Registered Member
Once TSMC goes on their globe-trotting adventure building EUVL fabs in Japan, Arizona, Taiwan and Germany; the US forces Samsung to do the same and Intel steals KR/TW technology and builds their own EUVL fabs - ASML will be overflowing with money and they will be able to push the frontier in high-NA EUVL, thus driving the next generation of investment and leaving China far far far far far behind.

SMEE is vaporware, no one can replace ASML's ArFi's sales in China. No one. Well, unless the US bans it or makes its vassal, the EU ban those shipments to the EU but the US holds all the cards given how cucked Germany (Zeiss/ASML optics) is as well as the Cymer laser made in San Diego.

How is SMEE vaporware? Like what do you base your assertion on?

It already sells photolithography tools for advanced packaging applications and according to this source has a 40% marketing share in that segment. There's nothing saying that photolithography tools for packaging can't also be used for front end of line processes.

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Your obsession with "stealing" to get ahead, seems oddly familiar.
 

pmc

Junior Member
Registered Member
ASML only makes 17% of their revenue in China (and that's going to decrease given how quickly TSMC is building EUVL fabs in everywhere but China - ha); even assuming the SMEE isn't vaporware (it is), the EUVL growth would more than compensate for lost China sales and ArFi platform growth in China (if it doesn't get banned) just because customers like diversification
ASML has 16 locations world wide to run its business. Europe will lose its Fertilizer production at current Gas prices if they are not bailed out. if this year bail out. what about next year. This is just one industry example.

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