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Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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Is this the way for Intel X86 to stay relevant against RISC-V and ARM? @wxw456 bro your sentiment is being shared in this video, Is Intel the one that will kill TSMC? For TSMC now is the time to reconsider and invest more in the Mainland, they may put up a subsidiary that is China centric. Being currently dominant they may bargained with the US cause choosing between them and Intel, they should already know the expected outcome as Intel for most American is an institution.
Since Intel veteran Kissinger returned to Intel as CEO, he intends to change the company, this is already very clear. Now, how to change it has become clearer. One of his transformation plans for the chip manufacturing giant is to vertically integrate IDM 2.0. Intel has promised to launch its own full-featured customer manufacturing department to compete with TSMC and Samsung. Intel has also mentioned making chips for other companies before, but the business has never been taken seriously. The tepid OEM business, coupled with Intel's manufacturing dilemma, further confirms this point. And this time, Intel seems to be serious.
28 views8 minutes ago
Since Intel veteran Kissinger returned to Intel as CEO, he intends to change the company, this is already very clear. Now, how to change it has become clearer. One of his transformation plans for the chip manufacturing giant is to vertically integrate IDM 2.0. Intel has promised to launch its own full-featured customer manufacturing department to compete with TSMC and Samsung. Intel has also mentioned making chips for other companies before, but the business has never been taken seriously. The tepid OEM business, coupled with Intel's manufacturing dilemma, further confirms this point. And this time, Intel seems to be serious.
28 views8 minutes ago
Intel is easily able to compete against TSMC or Samsung, but no Asian company will even try to compete against ASML, Microsoft, Google, or Apple. This is why the US has an advantage - it is determined to achieve dominance in every major market area and supply chain link, whereas Asian companies are happy if they can just be competitive in one niche. Even China is only trying to develop semiconductor equipment now because it was kicked in the nuts by Pompeo, if not for the Huawei sanctions, that company would probably still be naively and blindly using Qualcomm/Android to this day.
You won't achieve what you don't aim for.
You won't achieve what you don't aim for.
D
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Delete this plz
Many years ago before all the sanctions Huawei has started to develop their Kirin chips and Harmony OS.Intel is easily able to compete against TSMC or Samsung, but no Asian company will even try to compete against ASML, Microsoft, Google, or Apple. This is why the US has an advantage - it is determined to achieve dominance in every major market area and supply chain link, whereas Asian companies are happy if they can just be competitive in one niche. Even China is only trying to develop semiconductor equipment now because it was kicked in the nuts by Pompeo, if not for the Huawei sanctions, that company would probably still be naively and blindly using Qualcomm/Android to this day.
You won't achieve what you don't aim for.
Those Kirin chips started to rival qualcomm some years ago and then the US used their lawfare to put almost unbeatable roadblocks on HiSilicon's road.Many years ago before all the sanctions Huawei has started to develop their Kirin chips and Harmony OS.
Gigaphoton CANNOT sell to Chinese companies that would be very willing to buy from it because of the American and Japanese governments.To really understand Gigaphoton's predicament you have to travel back in time to the year 2000. In 2000 Nikon was the largest lithography machine supplier with two other major competitors ASML and Canon. At the turn of the millenium lithography machine companies were looking to develop Next-Generation Lithography (NGL) technology. Nikon was focused on the development of its electron beam projection (EPL) lithography tool and opted not to develop an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tool. Whereas ASML and Canon opted to develop an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tool.
Here is an EETimes article from 2001:
Here is an article from 2001 about Canon:
This was essentially a race/competition between EPL and EUV lithography for the next-generation lithography technology that started in 2000. 20 years later we know the outcome of this competition.
By 2008 Nikon, Canon and ASML decided that EUV lithography was the winner:
Nikon's failed bet put them behind ASML in the EUVL development race:
The problem was that Nikon's bet on EPL lost to EUV and that put the company a decade behind ASML. This leaves just Canon and ASML that started EUVL research right from 2000. The answer to why ASML beat out Canon in the race to EUVL is economic. In 2000, Nikon had 40% of the lithography-tool market share, ASML had about 30% market share, and Canon held 20% market share. ASML had more money and invested more into EUVL. When ASML won the race to develop the first commercial EUVL machine Nikon and Canon instantly lost billions of dollars in future sales and the first mover advantage. Canon eventually cancelled their EUVL development work. In 2008 the Canon SFET tool was still only for R&D. Whereas ASML in 2009 was planning to ship its "pre-production" EUV tool to customer sites.
In 2021 Gigaphoton may have a 250W EUV power source, but it doesn't have a customer. The only EUVL producer ASML has Cymer to supply its power source. Nikon and Canon dropped out of the EUVL market so Gigaphoton has no domestic customers. Only companies in China are actively working on developing a EUVL machine, but Gigaphoton can't/won't sell the product to them. So Gigaphoton is a company with a wonderful product without any customers (polite way to say business failure).
Plot Twist:The problem for chip and equipment manufacturers in SK, Taiwan and Japan is that they don't have control over the market/customers. Nikon and Canon stumbled in the EUVL development race and the consequence was a massive loss in market share and complete loss of the EUVL market. In contrast look at Intel, they stumbled in the race to manufacture 7nm and below chips, but what are the consequences?
Intel still holds large market share and is no where near dropping out of the market or going bankrupt. Intel has a large 330 million person domestic market to fall back to if they stumble in their product development. TSMC's domestic market is 23 million, Samsung's domestic market is 51 million and Japan's domestic market is 126 million. Essentially the SK + TW + JP market is 130 million less than just the US market alone. Even worse is that SK, TW and JP companies are export competitors with each other.
Alarmists often daydream and talk about PLA missiles destroying TSMC fabs, but I think the real TSMC killer will be Intel and Samsung. Let's look at TSMC's future markets:
Essentially TSMC has to always keep ahead of the competition or lose major market share with no domestic market to fall back on. This process won't happen overnight, but over the course of decades. Yes Chinese companies are behind on several technological aspects, but like Intel they have a large and secure domestic market to fall back to.
- The US cut off TSMC's China market with sanctions and threats.
- In the US, TSMC is going to face stiff competition against Intel (a preferred domestic US company).
- In the rest of East Asia, TSMC is facing Samsung and Intel. SK will prefer Samsung and the US can apply pressure on Japan to work more with Intel.
- Europe is actually the best prospect for TSMC since TSMC is one of ASML's largest customers and Europe doesn't have a major chip manufacturing competitor. But even then it's still competing against Samsung and Intel who are also ASML customers. This is also assuming that the EU does not eventually move/fund its own chip manufacturer.
TSMC is desperately hoping that SMEE or any other Chinese companies can come with an EUV or other similarly effective lithography breakthrough for < 7nm nodes, so that it can have an unrestricted access to the Chinese domestic market and not be vulnerable to any US Alliance threat to withdraw lithography and other advanced chip making equipment and material supplies to it.
Truly interesting to see how things change incredibly fast in this arena. I was not aware of the Nikon x Canon x ASML history. Most interesting.To really understand Gigaphoton's predicament you have to travel back in time to the year 2000. In 2000 Nikon was the largest lithography machine supplier with two other major competitors ASML and Canon. At the turn of the millenium lithography machine companies were looking to develop Next-Generation Lithography (NGL) technology. Nikon was focused on the development of its electron beam projection (EPL) lithography tool and opted not to develop an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tool. Whereas ASML and Canon opted to develop an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tool.
Here is an EETimes article from 2001:
Here is an article from 2001 about Canon:
This was essentially a race/competition between EPL and EUV lithography for the next-generation lithography technology that started in 2000. 20 years later we know the outcome of this competition.
By 2008 Nikon, Canon and ASML decided that EUV lithography was the winner:
Nikon's failed bet put them behind ASML in the EUVL development race:
The problem was that Nikon's bet on EPL lost to EUV and that put the company a decade behind ASML. This leaves just Canon and ASML that started EUVL research right from 2000. The answer to why ASML beat out Canon in the race to EUVL is economic. In 2000, Nikon had 40% of the lithography-tool market share, ASML had about 30% market share, and Canon held 20% market share. ASML had more money and invested more into EUVL. When ASML won the race to develop the first commercial EUVL machine Nikon and Canon instantly lost billions of dollars in future sales and the first mover advantage. Canon eventually cancelled their EUVL development work. In 2008 the Canon SFET tool was still only for R&D. Whereas ASML in 2009 was planning to ship its "pre-production" EUV tool to customer sites.
In 2021 Gigaphoton may have a 250W EUV power source, but it doesn't have a customer. The only EUVL producer ASML has Cymer to supply its power source. Nikon and Canon dropped out of the EUVL market so Gigaphoton has no domestic customers. Only companies in China are actively working on developing a EUVL machine, but Gigaphoton can't/won't sell the product to them. So Gigaphoton is a company with a wonderful product without any customers (polite way to say business failure).
"....TSMC is desperately hoping that SMEE or any other Chinese companies can come with an EUV or other similarly effective lithography breakthrough for < 7nm nodes,"Plot Twist:
TSMC is desperately hoping that SMEE or any other Chinese companies can come with an EUV or other similarly effective lithography breakthrough for < 7nm nodes, so that it can have an unrestricted access to the Chinese domestic market and not be vulnerable to any US Alliance threat to withdraw lithography and other advanced chip making equipment and material supplies to it.
Problem is, if SMEE does develop such technology why would China need TSMC?
If TSMC is not willing/can't ignore American sanctions now, why would China help it when it does not need TSMC any longer?
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