Chinese semiconductor industry

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ansy1968

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It looks like a new fab to me.

If China is serious about ending semiconductor import dependency, my guestimate was a minimum requirement of 187 new fabs (200mm+300mm)

So I reckon SMIC could aim for more than 2 new fabs every year
@AndrewS a new 28nm domestic line? I hope its true bro together with the Beijing FAB that's a potential 200,000 12 inch wafer (100,000 per FAB) monthly production.
 

AndrewS

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@AndrewS a new 28nm domestic line? I hope its true bro together with the Beijing FAB that's a potential 200,000 12 inch wafer (100,000 per FAB) monthly production.

If the technology is ready and cost-effective, why not?

If SMIC announced 2 new fabs every year, that is still only 20 fabs after 10 years, which is still nowhere near enough.

China does huge industrial expansions all the time.
 

AndrewS

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The scenario below was based on half the capacity expansions in China being 300mm and the other half 200mm

But if you were to go with predominantly 300mm plants, you would be looking at 76x Huge Fabs (120,000 wafers per month@ 300mm)

These numbers illustrate that China needs to build fabs like sausages (dumplings) if they are serious about semiconductor self-sufficiency.

I get much bigger numbers.
10 big fabs is less than 15% of Chinese demand.

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In December 2020, global monthly capacity of semiconductors was 21 million wafers per month (200mm equivalent)

So if you wanted to add an additional 50% of current global capacity inside China, you could need the following combination:

38x Huge Fabs (120,000 wafers per month @ 300mm)
AND
131x Large Fabs (80,000 wafers per month @ 200mm)

Once domestic Chinese technology is mature, China could start mass-producing semiconductor equipment.
I imagine it would be like producing dumplings / sausages.

Due to economies of scale and lower costs, theoretically Chinese semiconductors would be the LOWEST cost in the world.

And yes, a big problem would be finding customers for this capacity.
But also ramping up expertise in operating the fabs and designing chips.

But remember that memory chips are commodities and have the biggest demand. Plus they are most cost effective at older process nodes which use DUV lithography.
 
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