Chinese semiconductor industry

gelgoog said:

you underestimate the effort in having your own complete semiconductor chain. It is greater than to manufacture jet engines.
Just think about this. The US can manufacture jet engines with 100% US made equipment and supplies. But it cannot manufacture chips with 100% US made equipment and supplies.

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Only time will tell but the distinction I am pointing out is precisely that China has/had no aviation market/supply chain whereas that is completely the opposite for semiconductors, the market, industry champions and talent/expertise is all there already.

Furthermore, you are missing the most important part. The US/west also completely overlooked the importance of semiconductors and AI, because guess what, they can't tell the future better than any one else despite being leaders in R&D. China is on a more equal footing that you are giving them credit for. The sanctions is simply policy playing catch-up; and it is in all likelihood too little too late because as I said the ecosystem has already been established in China and greater degree Asia.

quantumlight said:

A blanket ban is declaration of war, probably within an hour of this announce TSMC will get some DongFeng Express packages

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To me honest, I welcome US complete ban of semiconductor to China in 3 years.

Even if China uses outdated tech but self controlled

No EUV means China unable to serve western market due to noncompetitiveness.

That's fine. China export ultimately needs to come down more to less than 10%.

China 's bedrock for domestic consumption is revitalization of rural area and modernizing it's rural townships including high-tech farming, agriculture livestock raising, and then high-tech food , fruit, wine processing plant and then distribution nationally. Modernized townships will have good infrastructure and resources.
Majority of it's labor force will stay at their modernized rural townships.
Water diversion projects will create more green areas in desert place. Ecological industry will spring up.


China is modeling after Japan where some rural folks make more money than city people.

Forget the western world.

Forget about import huge amount of high end semiconductor chips and assembled them and export back to western market.

Let US relocate it's supply chain. Pack it's bags and leave.

US complete ban of semiconductor to China is nothing.

China focus on its own industries to serve its own needs.

Oldschool said:

No EUV means China unable to serve western market due to noncompetitiveness.

That's fine. China export ultimately needs to come down more to less than 10%.

China 's bedrock for domestic consumption is revitalization of rural area and modernizing it's rural townships including high-tech farming, agriculture livestock raising, and then high-tech food , fruit, wine processing plant and then distribution nationally. Modernized townships will have good infrastructure and resources.
Majority of it's labor force will stay at their modernized rural townships.
Water diversion projects will create more green areas in desert place. Ecological industry will spring up.


China is modeling after Japan where some rural folks make more money than city people.

Forget the western world.

Forget about import huge amount of high end semiconductor chips and assembled them and export back to western market.

Let US relocate it's supply chain. Pack it's bags and leave.

US complete ban of semiconductor to China is nothing.

China focus on its own industries to serve its own needs.

Click to expand...

Ideally I concur

But you forget the reality of Peak Oil...

For each calorie of food, it needs nine calories of oil to make.

China imports most of its oil, as it imports most of its IC chips...

If China turn inward and dont produce nor compete with West on high tech and high value chain stuff it will get priced out of the resource markets...

America's peak oil mitigation plan is to cannalbalize its vassals so US stays afloat, it can do this by forcing TSMC to knowledge transfer and its Federal reserve print to kingdom comes...

US goal is to squeeze China out of the international scene so thats there are no competitors and it can rape the world however it sees fit as we slide down the slope of deminishing EROEI

Oldschool said:

No EUV means China unable to serve western market due to noncompetitiveness.

That's fine. China export ultimately needs to come down more to less than 10%.

China 's bedrock for domestic consumption is revitalization of rural area and modernizing it's rural townships including high-tech farming, agriculture livestock raising, and then high-tech food , fruit, wine processing plant and then distribution nationally. Modernized townships will have good infrastructure and resources.
Majority of it's labor force will stay at their modernized rural townships.
Water diversion projects will create more green areas in desert place. Ecological industry will spring up.


China is modeling after Japan where some rural folks make more money than city people.

Forget the western world.

Forget about import huge amount of high end semiconductor chips and assembled them and export back to western market.

Let US relocate it's supply chain. Pack it's bags and leave.

US complete ban of semiconductor to China is nothing.

China focus on its own industries to serve its own needs.

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@Oldschool bro straight from the Xi DUAL CIRCULATION strategy..

quantumlight said:

Ideally I concur

But you forget the reality of Peak Oil...

For each calorie of food, it needs nine calories of oil to make.

China imports most of its oil, as it imports most of its IC chips...

If China turn inward and dont produce nor compete with West on high tech and high value chain stuff it will get priced out of the resource markets...

America's peak oil mitigation plan is to cannalbalize its vassals so US stays afloat, it can do this by forcing TSMC to knowledge transfer and its Federal reserve print to kingdom comes...

US goal is to squeeze China out of the international scene so thats there are no competitors and it can rape the world however it sees fit as we slide down the slope of deminishing EROEI

Click to expand...

@quantumlight bro, can't leave China out if you're the second biggest economy based on western calculation but in real term the largest...

Oldschool said:

To me honest, I welcome US complete ban of semiconductor to China in 3 years.

Even if China uses outdated tech but self controlled

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A blanket ban of semiconductor sales to China will never happen.

Such a ban would be a trade action, and that will be a worldwide trade action.

China will retaliate, and ignite a worldwide trade war.

This has already happen. This was called the Great Depression. That was why the Great Depression was called the Great Depression, because the worldwide trade war created it.

Now why would the west, with grow rates of zero, go start a worldwide trade war?

Why would the RCEP want any part of this worldwide trade war (that lead to a Great Depression in an earlier era).

A blanket ban of semiconductor sales to China is not a serious thought, just American government fantasy because they realize how limited their choices are for action.

That is the American government right now with regards to China, the US government will not put up, nor will they shut up.

quantumlight said:

Ideally I concur

But you forget the reality of Peak Oil...

For each calorie of food, it needs nine calories of oil to make.

China imports most of its oil, as it imports most of its IC chips...

If China turn inward and dont produce nor compete with West on high tech and high value chain stuff it will get priced out of the resource markets...

America's peak oil mitigation plan is to cannalbalize its vassals so US stays afloat, it can do this by forcing TSMC to knowledge transfer and its Federal reserve print to kingdom comes...

US goal is to squeeze China out of the international scene so thats there are no competitors and it can rape the world however it sees fit as we slide down the slope of deminishing EROEI

Click to expand...

By 2030 many countries will ban gasoline cars. Its going electrical. CHina importing oil will come down.

As I mentioned before majority of China import ICs is for assembly and export back and many of them back to western world. It's low profit business. China can do without this type of business.

China compete well against west in many areas. low and medium ended business. there's where the volume lies.

No worry, US cannot squeeze china out of the developing world and third world. No ways.

As of now US import from China is all time high. lol Market force is stronger than US government.

So far. there's really not much western market place for chinese developed chips. Not before and certainly Not in the future.

I don't get the anxiety. China didn't lose anything. Maybe except for huawei. It has pay for its own sins.

Put it this way, even if China has EUV and made high end chips. Western government still gonna keep Chinese branded high-tech goods out of market place. So you end up the same.

As far as its own market, China can use whatever tech. Non EUV products are good enough too and less expensive.

sinophilia said:

Only an Asian would say that. If there is any evidence it is that East Asians have noticeably higher IQs than Whites (105 vs 100, with the disparity being even more in spatial and mathematical ability).

Of course East Asians like yourself lack confidence, willpower, and strength display more than any other race or people on Earth, which is probably one of the two major issues with Chinese attempts at success and international recognition (but really all other East Asians, as even Japanese and to a certain extent Koreans struggle with this). You see it especially in East Asian immigrant communities, whether they be in the US or Australia or Singapore. Within a few generations the great majority are desperate to fit in at all costs despite having no reason to since they outperform all other groups in all measures.

Notice how Indians NEVER change their first names to signify their assimilation and submissiveness, yet it seems every East Asian of influence ends up being named some Western Christian name. Just shitting on thousands of years of history in an attempt to fit in.

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Annihilation98 is most likely Indian. Indians are one of the biggest bashers of China on the internet, especially on YouTube and Quora. My opinion why Indian immigrant never anglicized their first name is because they do not want to be mistaken for Afro-Americans. Many of them are darker than the average Afro-Americans. On the other hand Chinese immigrants anglicized their first name so it's easier for them to assimilate in schools and workplaces.

coolieno99 said:

Annihilation98 is most likely Indian. Indians are one of the biggest bashers of China on the internet, especially on YouTube and Quora. My opinion why Indian immigrant never anglicized their first name is because they do not want to be mistaken for Afro-Americans. Many of them are darker than the average Afro-Americans. On the other hand Chinese immigrants anglicized their first name so it's easier for them to assimilate in schools and workplaces.

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I disagree. Chinese in Western countries are never aggressive like Indians. It's why when you adjust for population Indians have more success in the Anglo World. Aggression and confidence is respected, and East Asians don't act confident. They openly spit on assimilation, the second an Indian gets hired in a leading position they replace everyone with Indians and start lecturing Whites on how they are worse at XYZ, and the Whites eat it up because they don't dare criticize a loud and vocal minority. I see it myself ALL THE TIME.

There are more South Asian CEOs (of course almost all Indian) than there are White CEOs per capita! Intelligence and work ethic isn't enough. Confidence (to the point of arrogance) and argumentativeness, as well as risk-taking are important.