Chinese semiconductor industry

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voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
This is the most obvious sarcastic "oh wha? no way!!" lol

How these people didn't see this coming from 2019 if not earlier has to be beyond me. Is there a chance they are that naive? Perhaps. That's worrying. On the plus side, it aides in removing any naivety in any other Chinese person who is tuned in.

It also means China needs to put more effort and resources in brute forcing its way out of the set backs.

Does anyone understand what blacklisting access to US tech means for these supercomputers? They can't stop from using architecture right? That's like the Indians demanding the world stop using their numerals for maths. I thought the newer Chinese supercomputers have been using Chinese designed and made chips already.

I'm not very familiar with these technical aspects at all though. Perhaps more knowledgeable members can explain for readers the technical consequences and the technical playing field.
If I am not mistaken I remembere from an article that they were using American EDA tools for designing. So I guess they cant use them now
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Well they didn’t do direct product rule so they can turn to SMIC as Taiwan has indicated they will start working with US to cut off sanctioned firms. Means no below 10nm chips for these companies. At the end of the day China is screwed in semiconductors until they develop their own IC fab supply chain, which they seem utterly incapable of doing so.

Yeah China is basically forced to develop the entire fab supply chain which is something that if achieved, would bring China's to the level of Korea and Japan? The two closest to having the entire ecosystem? The US controls everything indirectly from Netherlands to Germany, South Korea to Japan, and Taiwan but they don't have it all under their roof. If China can manage this within 5 or so years, even to a degree that isn't market competitive, it would put it at an impressive and near peerless league (save for US which we could consider as the "owner" of the other five primary suppliers each with their own niches).

Why do you think they are incapable of doing so? When all that's left seems to be EUV lithography (with the others either mastered, near mastered or obsolete but still usable?) and EDA tools. That's two things within the domain of diminishing Moore's law silicon semiconductors within 5 years or so.

If I understand this field correctly, China's own is far from market leading but it's damn sure second place to the group of five suppliers Netherlands, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Germany held by the US puppet master. There are no third places. Niche fields exist in UK of course but when it comes to fab I don't think so? Russia and India are around the same level and well behind even this but they do have access to the entire set of supply chain equipment which China is now totally banned from. What China's got without the bans are market leading. Without the latest EUV lithography machines and EPA tools, China cannot be market competitive and can only depend on stockpiled supplies of chips for uses because it cannot manufacture <28nm without at least those two things.
 
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caudaceus

Senior Member
Registered Member
Well they didn’t do direct product rule so they can turn to SMIC as Taiwan has indicated they will start working with US to cut off sanctioned firms. Means no below 10nm chips for these companies. At the end of the day China is screwed in semiconductors until they develop their own IC fab supply chain, which they seem utterly incapable of doing so.

For tools, there have been discussions that 7nm is still within reach using indigenous tooling.
Again what I am curious about right now are the material and chemical. News about indigenous material and chemical seem rare.
 

Skywatcher

Captain
Yeah China is basically forced to develop the entire fab supply chain which is something that if achieved, would bring China's to the level of Korea and Japan? The two closest to having the entire ecosystem? The US controls everything indirectly from Netherlands to Germany, South Korea to Japan, and Taiwan but they don't have it all under their roof. If China can manage this within 5 or so years, even to a degree that isn't market competitive, it would put it at an impressive and near peerless league (save for US which we could consider as the "owner" of the other five primary suppliers each with their own niches).
Japan. Korea doesn't make its own lithographic tools or other IC equipment.
 

BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
For tools, there have been discussions that 7nm is still within reach using indigenous tooling.
Again what I am curious about right now are the material and chemical. News about indigenous material and chemical seem rare.
Wasn't there news some time ago that China could fabricate 12 inch wafers or something?
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
This is the most obvious sarcastic "oh wha? no way!!" lol

How these people didn't see this coming from 2019 if not earlier has to be beyond me. Is there a chance they are that naive? Perhaps. That's worrying. On the plus side, it aides in removing any naivety in any other Chinese person who is tuned in.

It also means China needs to put more effort and resources in brute forcing its way out of the set backs.

Does anyone understand what blacklisting access to US tech means for these supercomputers? They can't stop from using architecture right? That's like the Indians demanding the world stop using their numerals for maths. I thought the newer Chinese supercomputers have been using Chinese designed and made chips already.

I'm not very familiar with these technical aspects at all though. Perhaps more knowledgeable members can explain for readers the technical consequences and the technical playing field.

Remember in 2015 when Obama (and VP Joe Biden) banned Intel chips for Chinese Supercomputers? Didn't China develop their own indigenous chips for their Supercomputers that became among the top 3 or top 5 in the world?

So this is consistent of Obama-era officials, bans on supercomputing-related tech. This is no surprise actually. Still a significant level lower than Trump-era bans on actual Chinese tech (TikTok, WeChat, Huawei, ZTE, etc...).

It's largely symbolic action since Chinese already LEAD the US in supercomputing race in total Supercomputers, so Biden isn't even really targeting anything important.
 
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voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
Remember in 2015 when Obama (and VP Joe Biden) banned Intel chips for Chinese Supercomputers? Didn't China develop their own indigenous chips for their Supercomputers that became among the top 3 or top 5 in the world?

So this is consistent of Obama-era officials, bans on supercomputing-related tech. This is no surprise actually. Still a significant level lower than Trump-era bans on actual Chinese tech (TikTok, WeChat, Huawei, ZTE, etc...).

It's largely symbolic action since Chinese already LEAD the US in supercomputing race in total Supercomputers, so Biden isn't even really targeting anything important.
Yes but they banned them from using American EDA tools and maybe they banned them from using TSMC 7nm process (US tech yada yada..)
 

quantumlight

Junior Member
Registered Member
Yeah China is basically forced to develop the entire fab supply chain which is something that if achieved, would bring China's to the level of Korea and Japan? The two closest to having the entire ecosystem? The US controls everything indirectly from Netherlands to Germany, South Korea to Japan, and Taiwan but they don't have it all under their roof. If China can manage this within 5 or so years, even to a degree that isn't market competitive, it would put it at an impressive and near peerless league (save for US which we could consider as the "owner" of the other five primary suppliers each with their own niches).

Why do you think they are incapable of doing so? When all that's left seems to be EUV lithography (with the others either mastered, near mastered or obsolete but still usable?) and EDA tools. That's two things within the domain of diminishing Moore's law silicon semiconductors within 5 years or so.

If I understand this field correctly, China's own is far from market leading but it's damn sure second place to the group of five suppliers Netherlands, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Germany held by the US puppet master. There are no third places. Niche fields exist in UK of course but when it comes to fab I don't think so? Russia and India are around the same level and well behind even this but they do have access to the entire set of supply chain equipment which China is now totally banned from. What China's got without the bans are market leading. Without the latest EUV lithography machines and EPA tools, China cannot be market competitive and can only depend on stockpiled supplies of chips for uses because it cannot manufacture <28nm without at least those two things.

it is obvious now that US will go all the way with this pressure point... I'd bet my last dollar the GPU ban for China is coming soon... the US policy has crossed the Rubicon on this semiconductor issue and there is no turning back, only tripling down... likewise for China, the only way out of this is to become independent as quickly as possible, there are no other options unless China wants to unconditionally surrender to the West because that is what is essentially at stake at this point
 

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
it is obvious now that US will go all the way with this pressure point... I'd bet my last dollar the GPU ban for China is coming soon... the US policy has crossed the Rubicon on this semiconductor issue and there is no turning back, only tripling down... likewise for China, the only way out of this is to become independent as quickly as possible, there are no other options unless China wants to unconditionally surrender to the West because that is what is essentially at stake at this point
Yep, when they played the Chip card there was no coming back from it. So the US might decide to go all in now and not to wait until 2025 when China would have developed strong domestic capabilities
 
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