Chinese semiconductor industry

Oldschool said:

TSMC pretty done in China as it strictly follow US policy. I don't see TSMC move any EUV equipment into China for foundry.

So whatever they got in Nanjing is the last dance. And knowing that they won't bring in any more advance tech onto China, taking over their Nanjing fab is doable.

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@Oldschool very insightful thanks very much, The way I see it is that Tsai had sold the Taiwanese and the decoupling is being set up, with TSMC the FAB of choice among the US corporation. Do you think it will fail? Cause picking winners may had unintended consequences, a major sample is Samsung they are TSMC major competitor and are more stronger cause they're doing IDM. and they may tip the balance.

It may sound strange but I have a suggestion in this tech battle with the US, why not put a publish list of component used and from which country for every electronic product being sold in China. In this way the Chinese may be guided and decide which to buy and force the manufacturer to use domestic parts instead, A kind of patriotic duty without violating any trade agreements. Its better this way rather than banning a brand like Apple which didn't produce any parts aside form its OS.

ansy1968 said:

@Oldschool very insightful thanks very much, The way I see it is that Tsai had sold the Taiwanese and the decoupling is being set up, with TSMC the FAB of choice among the US corporation. Do you think it will fail? Cause picking winners may had unintended consequences, a major sample is Samsung they are TSMC major competitor and are more stronger cause they're doing IDM. and they may tip the balance.

It may sound strange but I have a suggestion in this tech battle with the US, why not put a publish list of component used and which country for every electronic product being sold in China. In this way the Chinese may decide which to buy and force the manufacturer to use domestic parts. Its better this way rather than banning a brand like Apple which didn't produce any parts aside form its OS.

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I think Tsai must not be allowed to escape.

China must have a new class of crimes called "Crimes against the Chinese people" and she should rot in prison forever for undermining the safety and wellbeing of Chinese worldwide.

By building that Arizona fab, she basically forfeited Taiwan and tributed more Chinese hardwork.



This is why intel failing

ansy1968 said:

@Oldschool very insightful thanks very much, The way I see it is that Tsai had sold the Taiwanese and the decoupling is being set up, with TSMC the FAB of choice among the US corporation. Do you think it will fail? Cause picking winners may had unintended consequences, a major sample is Samsung they are TSMC major competitor and are more stronger cause they're doing IDM. and they may tip the balance.

It may sound strange but I have a suggestion in this tech battle with the US, why not put a publish list of component used and which country for every electronic product being sold in China. In this way the Chinese may be guided and decide which to buy and force the manufacturer to use domestic parts instead, A kind of patriotic duty without violating any trade agreements. Its better this way rather than banning a brand like Apple which didn't produce any parts aside form its OS.

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More and more domestic firms use domestic parts provided that they are good enough


I can't wait for the day TSMC frustrated and pulling it's hair out for not making advancement

I am looking at 2nm road block it may not able to pass through
Maybe TSMC has one more period of good time at 3nm.

But it's getting close now.

This will coincide with China's days for unification.

I believe it would be Xi last term before he step down
If succeeded, Xi will be remembered as great as Mao. If failed, he step down but he stepping down anyway due to age.

silentlurker said:

This I don't get, isn't base Android open source? Why design another OS instead?

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From my point of view, it will high degree of autonomy for Huawei to innovate their existing product. Huawei will not bound by hardware deficiency as they can optimize their OS and taking advantage of distributed OS. Meaning, Mobile phone OS can use computing resources other device such as computer, laptop, smartTV, smartCar and Cloud computing. In theory Huawei mobile doesn't need cutting edges CPU to compete with other Mobile Phone company. Its also apply to other their smart watch, smart glass, AR and VR. Google also have their own similar development they call it Google Fuchsia.

This video shows other than lithography most other equipments and materials for the fab is at 28nm and some at 14nm.

Smee ssa600 90nm has a bad review, it got tossed aside. They better do a better job at ssa800 28nm.

So, in the foreseeable future China tech is at 28/14nm

Even with that, China can still compete with US.

Oldschool said:

This video shows other than lithography most other equipments and materials for the fab is at 28nm and some at 14nm.

Smee ssa600 90nm has a bad review, it got tossed aside. They better do a better job at ssa800 28nm.

So, in the foreseeable future China tech is at 28/14nm

Even with that, China can still compete with US.

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At this point China almost 95% self sufficient at 28nm that's why US allows Huawei to use TSMC. No for 16nm, 14nm...etc.

The reason US allows 14nm equipments and materials for SMIC is due to current shortage. But it won't allowed SMIC 14nm for Huawei. TSMC overbooked.


I am hoping for cetc come out with 28nm due to smee 90nm bad reviews in the past. Hedging for another source

Video also suggest second hand asml tools, none of US business

quantumlight said:

Should have started this a decade ago but better late than never, imagine if Trump hadnt tipped his hand, then when US finally use the IC card it could hurt China much more severely...by then China would be even more entrenched

I still think there is a good chance America can anyday declare an outright chip sanction to all of China. As in no chips go to China period, thus overnight forcing all companies to pull out and go to other countries. It would cause global pain but then again so did Covid. This is the only chance America has of rerouting the global supply chain by using the technological chokehold and pressure points to hold the world hostage and force everyone to bypass and isolate China. It would be a bold risky move but its the best remaining trick the US has left

US will figure that short of full scale nuclear war, that this wholesale chip ban would be last ditch effort.

In the 4th industrial revolution and the age of AI, chips and chip fabbing supply chain are the new oil and America has found its new OPEC; Cutting China off all chips will be akin to oil embargo of Japan

Like WMD pretext for invasion of Iraq, they have lined up the genocide declarations to make this more platable when they take this action and the economic toil that comes from this will be blamed on the "China Virus" and how China owes the world reparations

I hope this never happenz but I wont be least bit shocked or surprised if/when it does... If I was the US and saw my hegemony slipping away and nothing else has really worked so far, its what I would do.

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That will not work !!

China can easily block those companies from leaving, if not straight out take them over by force. Remember they are inside China !!

If the US sanction all chips on China, then all China has to do is to take all the FAB labs that TSMC, SAMSUNG and others by force since they are all located in China anyway !!

Then just work on EUV and by 2025 China will be able to make all the chips from 200nm to 3nm and use its leverage to mass producing them dirt cheap and DESTORY TSMC, Intel, SAMSUNG and take over the entire semiconductor industry.

This will actually help China !!

(Also remember, other countries do not have the skill sets China have to make chips. It takes decades to train up the engineers, technical works to even work in a FAB !!)

The purchases at ASML continue.

Oldschool said:

More and more domestic firms use domestic parts provided that they are good enough


I can't wait for the day TSMC frustrated and pulling it's hair out for not making advancement

I am looking at 2nm road block it may not able to pass through
Maybe TSMC has one more period of good time at 3nm.

But it's getting close now.

This will coincide with China's days for unification.

I believe it would be Xi last term before he step down
If succeeded, Xi will be remembered as great as Mao. If failed, he step down but he stepping down anyway due to age.

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I think China can afford to be patient on Taiwan.
As the years go on, China should continue to grow.
By 2050, the Chinese economy could be 3x larger than the USA.

Consider the economic and military implications of this.

AndrewS said:

I think China can afford to be patient on Taiwan.
As the years go on, China should continue to grow.
By 2050, the Chinese economy could be 3x larger than the USA.

Consider the economic and military implications of this.

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That is extremely unlikely, Xi determines to solve this taiwan situation during his term.

1)Xi wants to be remembered as great as Mao. To be considered that, taiwan unification under him must be accomplished
2)CPC allows Xi to have unlimited term all because of the acknowledgement he will be the one finish this task
3)Taiwan Unification is very hard. If cannot accomplished under Xi, the one who born in China tough time and endured all the hardship and that task slide down to next generation who has much easier time growing up? The new generation won't have the mental fortitude. The current leadership in CPC doesn't think the newer generation have enough mental toughness and boldness to undertake the taiwan unification task and thats why most expected Xi to finish this task. Xi expects himself also.

CHinese media talk about the unification within 2 years. Some projected 5 years or 10 years. That's furtherest i have heard is 10 years.
2050, I have not heard a single person talk about stretching out that far.
Korean war, PLA barely had anything under mao yet willing to take on the mighty US and UN allies. Right now, CPC think they have enough. mental toughness is mostly needed.

If it failed, Xi willing to accept that responsibility and he step down. US currently think Xi is the main problem right and China knows that. THe grand finale would be Xi undertake the task. Once the task accomplished, Xi would step down.
Either way, success or failure., Xi would step down. A new page in history book.