Chinese semiconductor industry


vincent

Senior Member
Personally, I think it's time for HiSilicon to be spun off as an independent entity or sold to Unisoc/Tsinghua.
It means HiSilicon can continue designing and manufacturing chips without restriction, and then selling them to anyone.

This means more competition for Huawei, as their competitors can buy those chips as well.
But at least Huawei still has access, which is better than the alternative.
And Huawei gets a cash infusion to invest in R&D in other areas..
you seriously believe the Hegemon care if HiSilicon is part of Huawei or not? The Hegemon wants to stop China’s tech progress cold.
 

Weaasel

New Member
Registered Member
I agree, they do play it low key. With that said, this is not as secretly guarded as 5th gen fighters, so I wouldn't expect them to suddenly pull out a J-20 equivalent (i.e. EUV lithography machine) in the next year or two. Just getting their DUV machine ready for 28 and 14nm will take a while.

My personal impression is that they set up the 02 project with two considerations:
  1. Have a back up plan so that in case of a complete loss of outside technology before 2025 (for whatever reason), they still have the capability to build any military electronics needed, as well as "good enough" civilian electronics to keep a modern society running
  2. Gradually catch up to have top-tier semiconductor manufacturing capability around 2025-2030, be able to compete with the likes of ASML/TSMC around that period.
While their plan started early, actual research funding on lithography and other fabrication technology was not that much, probably tiny if compared to what ASML and TSMC had spent. If they invested 10-20x more (roughly guessing) into this over the last 10 years, it's possible that they'd have caught up much faster.

After all, advanced semiconductor manufacturing is hard, but it's not "moon landing in the 1960s" hard.

But it's hard to say China made a mistake either. There's a limited budget to work with. When you try to accelerate research ahead of your industry base it's always less cost effective making it very hard to justify.

Another thing is that China's policy planners may not have expected Huawei to lead the market so decisively and quickly. Huawei ran well ahead of China's other players in the semiconductor sector, so when attacked it couldn't get enough "cover fire" from its peers. Yet this also means if China can keep Huawei strong, it will generate a great pulling effect for China's tech supply chain to upgrade rapidly. In that sense alone it is guaranteed that Huawei will have China's full support, not just from the government, but also from the industry and consumer base.

I hope that no one in China or no Chinese national believes that Huawei alone is under attack, but that the United States is thoroughly determined to damage Chinese technological capability as much as it possibly can. Huawei is not under attack, neither is just the Chinese government or the CCP. China as an entity is under attack. China must now thoroughly pull out all the stops to be capable of ENTIRELY and without exception producing the entirety of the production and value chain to meet its domestic demand for IC chips domestically. High tech Semiconductor wafer and IC chip manufacturing equipment should be produced in China, as should the IC chips themselves, and the designing of circuits and all equipment should be done in China. The rest of the world CANNOT be trusted. Even if many resent the United States and are indignant at the United States attempting to dictate their own trade and industrial policies - which is what the United States is trying to do - they fear that the United States can punish them severely themselves, and the US probably will, for trading with China in ways the United States does not like.
 

superdog

Junior Member
I hope that no one in China or no Chinese national believes that Huawei alone is under attack, but that the United States is thoroughly determined to damage Chinese technological capability as much as it possibly can. Huawei is not under attack, neither is just the Chinese government or the CCP. China as an entity is under attack. China must now thoroughly pull out all the stops to be capable of ENTIRELY and without exception producing the entirety of the production and value chain to meet its domestic demand for IC chips domestically. High tech Semiconductor wafer and IC chip manufacturing equipment should be produced in China, as should the IC chips themselves, and the designing of circuits and all equipment should be done in China. The rest of the world CANNOT be trusted. Even if many resent the United States and are indignant at the United States attempting to dictate their own trade and industrial policies - which is what the United States is trying to do - they fear that the United States can punish them severely themselves, and the US probably will, for trading with China in ways the United States does not like.
Oh you don't have to worry about that because it's not a matter of belief, it is a matter of fact. There are a ton of Chinese companies and academic institutions already on the entity list. Another 33 were being added to the list yesterday, just as we make these posts.

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By adding more and more "entities" to the list and repeatedly stressing its hostility towards "Made in China 2025", the US is making sure no one in China (and in most parts of the world) could stay under the illusion that this was just about Huawei breaking some "law".

It also ensures that even a US paid "advocate" in China would have a very hard time finding excuses to argue against uniting the domestic industry for an upstream upgrade.

As a Chinese I sincerely hope Trump could spend 4 more years in the office, because what a great teacher he is.

One thing I don't agree with you is to assume that countering US sanction means self-isolating from the world. That is falling into the Trump line of thinking and not how China handle things (see what they did in the recent WHO resolution?). Some western MSM may make you think the entire world is against China, but in reality that is not the case. China should be working towards building a de-Americanized global supply chain and it's not necessarily contradictory to being self-sufficient. In fact, this is the real blow towards US hegemony, retreating into your own cocoon isn't. I think China as well as Huawei has clearly shown such vision in their planning and actions.
 
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azesus

Junior Member
Registered Member
Dont you know Trump is secret undercover China Uniter-in-Chief? A united statesman from america, he alone equals 50 PLA divisions, a Chinese national treasure, modern day Trump Genghis Khan, he wasn't joking when he referring to himself as Abe Lincoln, for China of course, like mobile suit Gundam he mobilize Chinese national effort
 
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hullopilllw

Junior Member
Registered Member
Personally, I think it's time for HiSilicon to be spun off as an independent entity or sold to Unisoc/Tsinghua.
It means HiSilicon can continue designing and manufacturing chips without restriction, and then selling them to anyone.

This means more competition for Huawei, as their competitors can buy those chips as well.
But at least Huawei still has access, which is better than the alternative.
And Huawei gets a cash infusion to invest in R&D in other areas..

It also means Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo can ditch Qualcomm in favour of HiSilicon for high-end smartphone chips.
And that ZTE could potentially build better 5G base stations as well.

So overall, the Chinese technology industry should end up stronger, whilst still working as hard as possible to de-Americanise.
Whoever bought over HiSilison will be added into the entity list.

You need to understand the underlying intent of US State Dept here, it is not really only against Huawei, but China's ascend in the semiconductor sector as a whole.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Junior Member
Registered Member
China should be working towards building a de-Americanized global supply chain and it's not necessarily contradictory to being self-sufficient.
I agree with you for the most part on the process of de-Americanization of supply chains. There are huge incentives for countries like Japan and Korea to develop "Certified 100% America Free" technology products for the Chinese market - however, that assumes the US is willing to play by at least some rules and not sanction these countries for supplying advanced technology even if it contains no US components or IP whatsoever. Given the perfidy and thuggery we've seen from the US, there's no reason to assume any such restraint on its part. Hell, Japan faced sanctions in the '80s for developing such technology itself! Any objection that that would be against the law (whose law?) is futile. The US is dying and it's determined to play Samson and pull the temple down on itself and everyone else, that's just a fact. Therefore, there must be total Chinese self-reliance (not just that, but world leadership) in core technologies like semiconductors no matter what it takes.

I also want to question you a little on your timelines for DUV and EUV introduction. You say it'll take time for the first commercial Chinese DUV machine to reach 14nm (even 28nm), let alone 7nm. Ordinarily I would agree, given the lackadaisical pace of Chinese research in lithography prior to US sanctions, but now I simply cannot see anything but a full-on war emergency effort to get this technology to the cutting edge. It would be a mistake for Chinese DUV to spend a day at 28nm - straight to 14nm and in months transition to 7nm. As for EUV, I'm not exactly sure what the Changchun Institute announcement in 2017 is about, but if it's a complete tech demonstrator then I expect the first generation of commercial machines to appear, J-20 like, in the next year or two (or three, just to cover my rear).
 

hullopilllw

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think the mental image of China being merely a producer for US has been too etched into our mind.

Actually, it no longer matters if China is a net importer or exporter, because 5 years down the road, China will be both the largest importer and exporter on planet Earth. This is a fundamental seismic shift we are talking about here.
 

hullopilllw

Junior Member
Registered Member
I agree with you for the most part on the process of de-Americanization of supply chains. There are huge incentives for countries like Japan and Korea to develop "Certified 100% America Free" technology products for the Chinese market - however, that assumes the US is willing to play by at least some rules and not sanction these countries for supplying advanced technology even if it contains no US components or IP whatsoever. Given the perfidy and thuggery we've seen from the US, there's no reason to assume any such restraint on its part. Hell, Japan faced sanctions in the '80s for developing such technology itself! Any objection that that would be against the law (whose law?) is futile. The US is dying and it's determined to play Samson and pull the temple down on itself and everyone else, that's just a fact. Therefore, there must be total Chinese self-reliance (not just that, but world leadership) in core technologies like semiconductors no matter what it takes.

I also want to question you a little on your timelines for DUV and EUV introduction. You say it'll take time for the first commercial Chinese DUV machine to reach 14nm (even 28nm), let alone 7nm. Ordinarily I would agree, given the lackadaisical pace of Chinese research in lithography prior to US sanctions, but now I simply cannot see anything but a full-on war emergency effort to get this technology to the cutting edge. It would be a mistake for Chinese DUV to spend a day at 28nm - straight to 14nm and in months transition to 7nm. As for EUV, I'm not exactly sure what the Changchun Institute announcement in 2017 is about, but if it's a complete tech demonstrator then I expect the first generation of commercial machines to appear, J-20 like, in the next year or two (or three, just to cover my rear).
Very true for the first part. US used to justify their sanction by pointing out that parties used USD and the SWIFT system to carry out payment for activities which the US does not condone. In recent years, the reason is no longer based on the dollar system but rather the activities itself. Just like how my nation Indonesia got threatened with economic sanctions for barter trading Su-35 with crude palm oil and other agricultural commodities. This is nonsense, the US is positioning her own domestic laws into international law above all nations, and her lawmakers are not elected by the world. It works because countries still have stockpiles of savings in USD.
 

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