Chinese semiconductor industry


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Now Xiaomi is the next target. The US empire is losing the plot!
They never had the plot; they're just panicking at China's fervent rise. They're basically button-mashing at this point. Under Trump, the US fought like a red-faced boxer with sand in his eyes and steam coming out of his ears swinging at a laser pointer while something keeps poking him in the ass.
 
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Crang

Junior Member
Registered Member
They never had the plot; they're just panicking at China's fervent rise. They're basically button-mashing at this point. Under Trump, the US fought like a boxer with sand in his eyes swinging at a piñata while something keeps poking him in the ass.
Throwing the kitchen sink

1610652287757.png
 

gadgetcool5

Junior Member
Registered Member
I know, but I feel like there’s some “China shouldn’t have gotten off the lithography bandwagon we could have gotten the lead if we just stuck with it from the 80s” sentiment when there’s callback to that history and...I guess I’m just a party pooper.
Well the 8080 came out in 1974 and China was able to clone it by 1978... China was only four years behind then, unlike being 15+ years behind now. Amazing to think that despite all of China's economic growth it has actually lost ground since 1978.
 

Oldschool

New Member
Registered Member
I know, but I feel like there’s some “China shouldn’t have gotten off the lithography bandwagon we could have gotten the lead if we just stuck with it from the 80s” sentiment when there’s callback to that history and...I guess I’m just a party pooper.
The olden days of self reliance spirit due to US led sanction making a comeback like a cycle. Its reasonable and can be anticipated as there is no gradual acceptance of China being number 1 economy in world by US. Not in their makeup.
 

Hendrik_2000

Brigadier
Well the 8080 came out in 1974 and China was able to clone it by 1978... China was only four years behind then, unlike being 15+ years behind now. Amazing to think that despite all of China's economic growth it has actually lost ground since 1978.
Well here is the answer to your question It is not so much as falling behind. They question that should be asked is what is the use of high tech when you go hungry at night In 1074 Chinese GDP/capita is $175 for the WHOLE YEAR. The industrial base is weak back the when China design the Type 91 submarine they used ABACUS instead of computer. It is more urgent to spend money raising the living standard and use it for frivolous pursuit of mindless semiconductor at that time as the country is not ready for high tech. See it for yourself. Having said that I fault more to captain of the industry who refuse to spend money for high tech investment instead take the cheap and easy way to but instead of making it.

You can say the same thing with civilian jet liner China actually had a working prototype Y 10 that is actually doing very well but out of consideration for more urgent matter China decide to cancelled the project.
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You see there is priority in national development and people livelihood is more important than anything else!
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1610654931857.png
 
Well the 8080 came out in 1974 and China was able to clone it by 1978... China was only four years behind then,
It hasn't been 4 years yet since the tech war started indications are that it won't take the full 4 to get to EUVL.
unlike being 15+ years behind now.
That doesn't give you an excuse to start pulling imaginary numbers out of your rear.
Amazing to think that despite all of China's economic growth it has actually lost ground since 1978.
Imaginary number's aren't that amazing to me but people like you depend on them.
The olden days of self reliance spirit due to US led sanction making a comeback like a cycle. Its reasonable and can be anticipated as there is no gradual acceptance of China being number 1 economy in world by US. Not in their makeup.
The key is gradual. Given time, the US will accept it because they can do nothing about it and have no choice but to accept it. Then, they will say GDP is not important; only GDP per capita, and comforted by that, their lives can go on.
 

gadgetcool5

Junior Member
Registered Member
China's semiconductor task is nigh impossible:

"The manufacturing chain for any given semiconductor is extraordinarily complex and relies on as many as 300 different inputs, including raw wafers, commodity chemicals, specialty chemicals, and bulk gases; all
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and
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by
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of 50 different types of processing and testing tools. Those tools and materials are sourced from around the world, and are typically highly engineered. Further, most of
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in semiconductor manufacturing, such as
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and metrology machines, rely on complex supply chains that are also highly optimized, and incorporate hundreds of different companies delivering modules, lasers, mechatronics, control chips, optics, power supplies, and more. The “installed base” within a semiconductor factory today represents the cumulation of hundreds of thousands of person-years of R&D development. The manufacturing process that integrates them into a single manufacturing chain could represent hundreds of thousands more.

The types of products for which these manufacturing processes are designed are nearly as varied as the manufacturing inputs themselves. There are at least 20 major semiconductor product categories (from optical sensors to battery management modules to CPUs) and each category usually contains hundreds of different stock keeping units—distinct items for sale—for specialized applications. This complexity leads to a large market filled with myriad niches, in which specialized world-class companies have built defensible market positions through decades of targeted research and development.

Complexity also makes semiconductors a winner-take-all industry. The top one or two players in any given niche—whether a small one, such as furnaces, or a giant one, such as server CPUs—
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all the economic profits in that niche due to scale, learning efficiencies, and high switching costs for customers. It is rare to see newcomers break into these oligopoly positions. For instance, the market leader in graphics processing units (GPUs), Nvidia,
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the segment in 1999 and never relinquished its lead. While China has early-stage startups in the GPU segment, its market share is essentially zero. TSMC, based in Taiwan, was the first dedicated competitor in the foundry segment and has not relinquished its lead in its 33-year history. Indeed, SMIC, China’s leading competitor in the foundry segment,
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four or five years behind TSMC in technology, despite almost two decades of investment."

Even if China succeeds in becoming 100% independent, it will still fail, because:

For one thing, the economics of an “only in China for China” supply chain do not work. Even if Chinese companies at each stage of the value chain win 80% of potential business from every potential Chinese customer, Chinese companies would collectively generate less than 15% of the industry’s overall R&D capacity—and likely less as prices in China tend to be lower, leaving less profit to re-invest in R&D. Such an indigenization strategy would still leave China behind the rest of the world: How can products developed with 15% of the world’s R&D compete with those from entrenched companies spending collectively far more? Of course, PRC government subsidies can and are closing that funding gap. But keeping such large-scale subsidies in place for the decades required to build the industry would likely generate a set of companies so dependent on government largesse that they may not be commercially viable.

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This is why, at the end of the day, this is not a purely technological or economic problem. China needs allies and good foreign relations abroad so that its companies have access to markets, supplies, talent, and R&D from other countries to reinforce its own. This is not optional; it is mandatory.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Senior Member
Registered Member
China's semiconductor task is nigh impossible:

"The manufacturing chain for any given semiconductor is extraordinarily complex and relies on as many as 300 different inputs, including raw wafers, commodity chemicals, specialty chemicals, and bulk gases; all
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
and
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
by
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
of 50 different types of processing and testing tools. Those tools and materials are sourced from around the world, and are typically highly engineered. Further, most of
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in semiconductor manufacturing, such as
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
and metrology machines, rely on complex supply chains that are also highly optimized, and incorporate hundreds of different companies delivering modules, lasers, mechatronics, control chips, optics, power supplies, and more. The “installed base” within a semiconductor factory today represents the cumulation of hundreds of thousands of person-years of R&D development. The manufacturing process that integrates them into a single manufacturing chain could represent hundreds of thousands more.

The types of products for which these manufacturing processes are designed are nearly as varied as the manufacturing inputs themselves. There are at least 20 major semiconductor product categories (from optical sensors to battery management modules to CPUs) and each category usually contains hundreds of different stock keeping units—distinct items for sale—for specialized applications. This complexity leads to a large market filled with myriad niches, in which specialized world-class companies have built defensible market positions through decades of targeted research and development.

Complexity also makes semiconductors a winner-take-all industry. The top one or two players in any given niche—whether a small one, such as furnaces, or a giant one, such as server CPUs—
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
all the economic profits in that niche due to scale, learning efficiencies, and high switching costs for customers. It is rare to see newcomers break into these oligopoly positions. For instance, the market leader in graphics processing units (GPUs), Nvidia,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
the segment in 1999 and never relinquished its lead. While China has early-stage startups in the GPU segment, its market share is essentially zero. TSMC, based in Taiwan, was the first dedicated competitor in the foundry segment and has not relinquished its lead in its 33-year history. Indeed, SMIC, China’s leading competitor in the foundry segment,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
four or five years behind TSMC in technology, despite almost two decades of investment."

Even if China succeeds in becoming 100% independent, it will still fail, because:

For one thing, the economics of an “only in China for China” supply chain do not work. Even if Chinese companies at each stage of the value chain win 80% of potential business from every potential Chinese customer, Chinese companies would collectively generate less than 15% of the industry’s overall R&D capacity—and likely less as prices in China tend to be lower, leaving less profit to re-invest in R&D. Such an indigenization strategy would still leave China behind the rest of the world: How can products developed with 15% of the world’s R&D compete with those from entrenched companies spending collectively far more? Of course, PRC government subsidies can and are closing that funding gap. But keeping such large-scale subsidies in place for the decades required to build the industry would likely generate a set of companies so dependent on government largesse that they may not be commercially viable.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This is why, at the end of the day, this is not a purely technological or economic problem. China needs allies and good foreign relations abroad so that its companies have access to markets, supplies, talent, and R&D from other countries to reinforce its own. This is not optional; it is mandatory.
You are the reason there has to be serious revision to this forum's rules. You simply can't be allowed to keep trolling like this and any rules that permit it have to be changed.
 

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