Chinese semiconductor industry

hvpc said:

Right. CXMT had trouble keeping up with the big boy even without the sanctions. We can blame it on it not being able to land EUV scanners. BUT, Micron was able to fab D1a without EUV, using exact systems CXMT has. This speaks to the difference in capability of the new kid on the block, CXMT, and seasoned veteran like MICRON that has a knack at squeezing every bit of capabilities out of a given equipment.

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hvpc said:

YMTC‘s expansion will be limited. Domestic equipments are not all adequate to support their original expansion.

But, if you/we really believe domestic equipments are as ready as we are hyping on SDF, then I guess there’s nothing for us to worry about on SDF. Unfortunately, we in the industry hear a different narrative from the fabs themselve. Well, we will see how things plays out this year. If domestic WFE suppliers could really quickly shape up to fill the gap then no problem, but if they can’t, then YMTC‘s future is also not very good. Not as good as the outlook prior to Oct 7th, but not as doom and gloom like that Bloomberg article someone shared earlier.

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tphuang said:

There are way too many patents coming out to not think that they are making great progress. I think you are letting past failures affect your thinking here. Why things are different with EUV
1) SMEE is not leading the project. It likely will be Huawei or someone more competent than that.
2) Every local foundry is motivated to work with whoever ends up leading the project
3) they will have experience from getting this SSA-800 project into mass production that they can share around (SSA600 clearly provided them lessons on what not to do)
4) captive market. There is no ASML competition, so being commercially competitive is just being better than the latest available DUVi scanner. So even if it's worse than the earliest production ASML EUV, that would still be sufficient.
5) A lot more government support here.

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tonyget said:

Patents are mere academic research，there is a long way from research to experiments to prototype to stable production to commercialisation.

ASML started EUV research back in 1999，got first working prototype in 2006，send out first testing unit TWINSCAN NXE:3100 to Samsung in 2010，started to produce EUV at commercial scale in 2013

Remember ASML met all the criteria you listed：

ALL leading fabs（TSMC INTEL SAMSUNG） were collaborating with ASML to develop EUV
ASML has tons of experiences in DUVi
There was no competition on EUV market for ASML
ASML's EUV project got full support from US gov，European research institutes

Even with all of above，it still took ASML more than a decade to commercialize EUV. So what makes you think that China can get it done in 4/5 years？

There are those who think China can never make EUV，there are also those who think China can make EUV in no time. I fall in the middle，I think China can make EUV，in a decade.

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PopularScience said:

ASML started from 0, and China just need to follow ASML path. I think 2025 should be done.

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hvpc said:

Sounds like you are expecting only a “box” with EUV source, moving stage, and some major components without any regards for all the subtle details/features needed for HVM.

your definition of prototype and HVM EUVL are definitely quite different from what they need to be in reality.

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tonyget said:

Patents are mere academic research，there is a long way from research to experiments to prototype to stable production to commercialisation.

ASML started EUV research back in 1999，got first working prototype in 2006，send out first testing unit TWINSCAN NXE:3100 to Samsung in 2010，started to produce EUV at commercial scale in 2013

Remember ASML met all the criteria you listed：

ALL leading fabs（TSMC INTEL SAMSUNG） were collaborating with ASML to develop EUV
ASML has tons of experiences in DUVi
There was no competition on EUV market for ASML
ASML's EUV project got full support from US gov，European research institutes

Even with all of above，it still took ASML more than a decade to commercialize EUV. So what makes you think that China can get it done in 4/5 years？

There are those who think China can never make EUV，there are also those who think China can make EUV in no time. I fall in the middle，I think China can make EUV，in a decade.

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olalavn said:

For example, in China it is very different, the patent will be made public when it has completed the work of the patent, how long do you think the patent will take to complete the work?

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tonyget said:

Quite the contrary，in China there is a strong motive for relevant entities to file loads of patents，regardless of the quality and practical use case of the patent. Because patent is being used as a criteria for individual promotion in university，also affects how much subsidy companies can get from the gov.

Chinese gov is starting to crack down on this phenomenon recently

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tonyget said:

Quite the contrary，in China there is a strong motive for relevant entities to file loads of patents，regardless of the quality and practical use case of the patent. Because patent is being used as a criteria for individual promotion in university，also affects how much subsidy companies can get from the gov.

Chinese gov is starting to crack down on this phenomenon recently

Click to expand...