Chinese semiconductor industry

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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
News like this is highly depressing to me. The future for Chinese semicon, and thus the rest of being fundamental IT based sectors, looks bleak. Sometimes we understand the Chinese as being bright and highly strategic long term planner, but the lack of any basic effort in investment in domestic basic semicon supply chain for 2 entire decades pre Trump sanction speak volume about their roadmap.

The US, for all their mistakes from Trump era, has successfully execute the impossible, those are :

1. Launched a cold war, now well under way, against Chinese fundamental tech sectors;
2. Instead of US, her allies like Europe, Japan and Korea are the ones now willingly footing the majority of cost of conflict by cutting link to China under whatever reason,
3. Worst of all, US allies are shifting their own resources into US domestic market to further cement her into a position to keep dominance in tech nodes monopoly.

Meanwhile, the news keep giving out this perception that China is catching out, challenging the US(tech war, but in reality it is tech siege )and thus need to be further subjugated by the bloc of western nations.
the only reason China imports so many leading edge semiconductors is as manufacturing intermediates for exports. So if China can't import those semiconductors, who buys them? To compete with China in electronics manufacturing you still need to have the entire rest of the supply chain - batteries, displays, PCBs, analog/mixed signal semiconductors, etc which competitors like India and Vietnam are nowhere close to. Even machining the aluminum casing of an iPhone isn't easy, it requires significant CNC and mechanical engineering expertise that India, Vietnam, etc. don't have, and in the case of India, they don't even have stable power to run CNC machines effectively.

So their costs will skyrocket as they 1. lose economies of scale 2. need to move to far less efficient manufacturers. Then Chinese finished products using domestic semiconductors with advanced packaging competes with them in the global south with a 100% secured domestic market.
 

tonyget

Senior Member
Registered Member
Partially agree, but you can't be a full spectrum great power if you can't produce your own high end consumer products. I don't think the Chinese people would feel fully rejuvenated as a society if they can't crack a domestic sub 10 nm production lines.

There is no room nostalgia,stay backward is not even an option nowadays. Because if you are backward,someone else is going to beat the shit out of you.
 

horse

Major
Registered Member
the only reason China imports so many leading edge semiconductors is as manufacturing intermediates for exports. So if China can't import those semiconductors, who buys them? To compete with China in electronics manufacturing you still need to have the entire rest of the supply chain - batteries, displays, PCBs, analog/mixed signal semiconductors, etc which competitors like India and Vietnam are nowhere close to. Even machining the aluminum casing of an iPhone isn't easy, it requires significant CNC and mechanical engineering expertise that India, Vietnam, etc. don't have, and in the case of India, they don't even have stable power to run CNC machines effectively.

So their costs will skyrocket as they 1. lose economies of scale 2. need to move to far less efficient manufacturers. Then Chinese finished products using domestic semiconductors with advanced packaging competes with them in the global south with a 100% secured domestic market.

This is kind of weird, the American strategy of decoupling from China in regards to tech.

That is the truth, as you posted, that decoupling cannot happen in the short term.

If decoupling happens in the long term, like 20 years, what is the point of that? Suppose Chinese EUV surfaces in 5 or even 10 years, but it will take the Americans and its allies 20 years to do a real decoupling from China.

There is no point there.

We reached a bizarre point in this tech war or decoupling process.

The United States cannot do it. Therefore, they want others to do it.

Why would the others want to do it, when there is no point to it?

All this talk from American politicians about shared values and same security concerns, is just American psychological warfare, that works on nobody.

If that American psychological warfare actually worked, we would not be listening to the same message drone on for years, as they would have been decoupling for real.
 

horse

Major
Registered Member
The article is REAL:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Totally fake. In fact, if you're interested, I got a couple of bridges that Mr. Trump sold to me, which I can sell to you, for a real good price.

However, I will say this.

Deep down, I hope it is really true!

If it is, then that would be great!

China 2025 aiming for 75% self-sufficiency, immediately becomes China 2024 aiming for 95%-100% self-sufficiency, and a free license to wipe those foolish people out.

For good.
 
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