Chinese semiconductor industry

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ansy1968

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The Chinese should do a lot of Press release like what the Japanese are doing, BUT they wouldn't, it's both a source of frustration and excitement (speculation and surprises) for all of us in this forum. And I'm wondering I thought both Canon and Nikon are struggling? where did they get the confidence to expand their production especially at the prospect of an economic downturn?

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18 hours ago — Canon plans to spend $345 million to build a new plant to produce semiconductor lithography equipment by the spring of 2025.
 
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hvpc

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ansy1968 said:
The Chinese should do a lot of Press release like what the Japanese are doing, BUT they wouldn't, it's both a source of frustration and excitement (speculation and surprises) for all of us in this forum. And I'm wondering I thought both Canon and Nikon are struggling? where did they get the confidence to expand their production especially at the prospect of an economic downturn?

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18 hours ago — Canon plans to spend $345 million to build a new plant to produce semiconductor lithography equipment by the spring of 2025.
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The consensus has been that semiconductor industry market will almost double to $1 Trillion by 2030. At SEMICON West a few month ago, everyone I talked to still believe in the growth to $1T, but sentiment was not as bullish with some tapering the target date by a few years.

Canon investing to get a piece of the long term growing market should not be surprising. This especially when ASML is unable to fulfill the demand even in KrF and iLine.
 
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ansy1968

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hvpc said:
The consensus has been that semiconductor industry market will almost double to $1 Trillion by 2030. At SEMICON West a few month ago, everyone I talked to still believe in the growth to $1T, but sentiment was not as bullish with some tapering the target date by a few years.

Canon investing to get a piece of the long term growing market should not be surprising. This especially when ASML is unable to fulfill the demand even in KrF and iLine.
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Thanks bro BUT 2025? within that time frame ASML may have sort out its supply chain problem , same can be said of SMEE and other Chinese equipment makers with impending ban across the board, to whom will the Japanese sell to?
 
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european_guy

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ansy1968 said:
Thanks bro BUT 2025? within that time frame ASML may have sort out its supply chain problem , same can be said of SMEE and other Chinese equipment makers with impending ban across the board, to whom will the Japanese sell to?
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I agree. If Japan does not embark itself in a sensible local fab expansion in the next years, who will buy litho systems from Canon in 2025?

China? By then the market for litho system that are still not banned, possibly 28nm and above, will be split between ASML and SMEE. Any ASML banned litho, will be banned also for Canon.

Korea? Well, to buy Japanese equipment does not seem to be their first choice

Taiwan? Maybe, but ASML is market leader there. TSMC buys ASML. And definitely nobody knows what Taiwan will do in 2025!

Europe? ASML is local incumbent here.

US? Maybe, but it's very risky to bet on US. They are very unreliable and unpredictable. There is no international rule or contract that can bind them: they just do what they want, the moment they want it. Maybe someone in US has promised Japan that they will buy Canon machines, this would make sense to avoid ASML monopoly, but anything can change few years down the road. And especially it is not clear how many fabs US is actually going to build for real in the next 10 years, and for which nodes.


Regarding ASML capacity, ASML currently has a capacity for 375 DUV systems annually...

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...and it does not seem they are pushing very hard to increase that. Actually with all the geopolitical unknowkns and the start of a recession, I would be surprised if they invest in added capacity at this point.
 
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hvpc

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ansy1968 said:
Thanks bro BUT 2025? within that time frame ASML may have sort out its supply chain problem , same can be said of SMEE and other Chinese equipment makers with impending ban across the board, to whom will the Japanese sell to?
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@european_guy already shared an official announcement from ASML that they will not be able to increase capacity until 2025 or 2026.

Based on the industry's vantage point, we are not expecting SMEE to be able to fulfill much of the overall needs.

Canon has a dominant hold on iLine market. Canon is also able to gain marketshare in KrF due to ASML's supply limitation.

Based on all the fab expansion plan in advanced and mature nodes, there's a commonality in need of Krf scanners. The exponential growth in Krf scanners is something that I don't think any of us see coming until perhaps recently. So, ASML announcing increasing their capacity to 600 DUV (all wavelengths)/year and this Canon announcement (both essentially doubling their capacity) are of the same message. Both seemed to be planning on doubling of demand to support the march to $1T Semi market size.
 
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hvpc

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hvpc said:
@european_guy already shared an official announcement from ASML that they will not be able to increase capacity until 2025 or 2026.

Based on the industry's vantage point, we are not expecting SMEE to be able to fulfill much of the overall needs.

Canon has a dominant hold on iLine market. Canon is also able to gain marketshare in KrF due to ASML's supply limitation.

Based on all the fab expansion plan in advanced and mature nodes, there's a commonality in need of Krf scanners. The exponential growth in Krf scanners is something that I don't think any of us see coming until perhaps recently. So, ASML announcing increasing their capacity to 600 DUV (all wavelengths)/year and this Canon announcement (both essentially doubling their capacity) are of the same message. Both seemed to be planning on doubling of demand to support the march to $1T Semi market size.
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This is a link to ASML's 2022 Q2 investor call transcript (I cut/paste this from a private conversation with @european_guy)

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For those that are interested, you can referred to the last paragraph of page 5 on what ASML said about their capacity expansion plan.
 
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hvpc

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european_guy said:
I agree. If Japan does not embark itself in a sensible local fab expansion in the next years, who will buy litho systems from Canon in 2025?

China? By then the market for litho system that are still not banned, possibly 28nm and above, will be split between ASML and SMEE. Any ASML banned litho, will be banned also for Canon.

Korea? Well, to buy Japanese equipment does not seem to be their first choice

Taiwan? Maybe, but ASML is market leader there. TSMC buys ASML. And definitely nobody knows what Taiwan will do in 2025!

Europe? ASML is local incumbent here.

US? Maybe, but it's very risky to bet on US. They are very unreliable and unpredictable. There is no international rule or contract that can bind them: they just do what they want, the moment they want it. Maybe someone in US has promised Japan that they will buy Canon machines, this would make sense to avoid ASML monopoly, but anything can change few years down the road. And especially it is not clear how many fabs US is actually going to build for real in the next 10 years, and for which nodes.


Regarding ASML capacity, ASML currently has a capacity for 375 DUV systems annually...

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...and it does not seem they are pushing very hard to increase that. Actually with all the geopolitical unknowkns and the start of a recession, I would be surprised if they invest in added capacity at this point.
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@european_guy, I think you may not be aware, but Canon's iLine/KrF scanners main customers are Korean and American and they have finally broke into tsmc's supply chain due to ASML's ineptitude to allocate enough tools to satisfy tsmc. Canon sell a lot of systems to the DRAM & 3D-NAND players. I believe Canon will give ASML more competition now that they will have more capacity to compete. ASML should be worried; maybe they should reconsider their own plan to double their capacity by 2025.

We are also moving into an era where the number of steps to make advanced DRAM, 3D-NAND, Logic will takes more KrF/i-Line than immersion systems; in fact, this is already the case for more than a few segment/node combination.

Canon's iLine and KrF are actually pretty good systems; they are cheaper, run really fast, and mostly good enough. I hear rave review from from associates in the memory segment.

If ASML don't come up with more KrF/i-Line capacity by 2025, then Canon will cannibalize this market. This announcement is not good news for ASML.
 
56860

56860

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sndef888 said:
Does anyone know how far along are YMTC and CXMT in the domestication of their supply chain?

Is it possible for US sanctions to shut them down like they did to Fujian Jinhua or can they continue production?
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YMTC's move to sell 3D NAND to Apple despite significant US pressure indicates they have little to be afraid of wrt sanctions. Note that you do not need EUV to produce NAND. I'm bullish on YMTC.
 
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