Another "too little, too late" attempt by US.
AMEC has already publicly stated that is able to etch 200 layers. But what makes me persuaded that YMTC can live without US equipment is their bold move of selling to Apple. The reactions of US politicians are always very predictable and YMTC should have known that in advance, so if they did it anyhow, to me it means they think they are safe.
At the moment I only see 3 bans that can still have an impact on sub 28nm advanced nodes for China companies, involved mainly in AI, GPU, CPU and in general in data processing...and maybe in some smartphone chip too.
1. Ban of TSMC foundry services for sub 28nm nodes --> 1/2 years delay before SMIC ramps up enough volume
2. Ban of ASML for sub 28nm nodes -> can be anything between 1 and 3 years delay before SMEE takes over
3. Ban of EDA tools for sub 28nm nodes -> this is the most serious one, top Chinese EDA companies foresee 4/5 years before closing the gap.
Of all these bans, only the last one can be done by US in total autonomy, the first two require a very strong pressure on Taiwan and Holland governments, and although US has strong influence on both, you can never tell if the effort will be successful because it is clear that both TSMC and ASML very strongly want to remain in China market and for very good reasons, especially now, at the beginning of a serious recession cycle.
