Chinese semiconductor industry


ansy1968

Senior Member
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Hi Peter2018,

A big thank you and perfect timing, well there it is folks, America had gotten what it wanted the 5nm tech from TSMC. If you can't produced it coerced it, with caviar on top with promise of financial support. It's the same as state intervention the US and the rest of the Western nation accused China of, such hypocrisy.
 

Skywatcher

Captain
Hi Peter2018,

A big thank you and perfect timing, well there it is folks, America had gotten what it wanted the 5nm tech from TSMC. If you can't produced it coerced it, with caviar on top with promise of financial support. It's the same as state intervention the US and the rest of the Western nation accused China of, such hypocrisy.
What a waste of $12 billion. If the schedule slips past 2025, then it's even a worse deal than the Nanjing TSMC scheme.
 

gelgoog

Senior Member
Registered Member
We shall see. Nothing has been built yet. Plus half a million for a traffic light? There's inflation for you.
TSMC is pretty reliable as far as corporations go but if the clients don't come it will just be like Samsung Austin Texas fab. They don't even bother upgrading to the latest manufacturing process anymore because of lack of clients.
 

gelgoog

Senior Member
Registered Member
...
Your opinion, do you think by that time 2025 China WILL had the same level of tech the 5nm?

It depends on if China can develop an EUV light source and masks. As we can see with the 28nm masks I think once someone has the materials available for them to sample it is pretty hard to keep it under wraps. With regards to the light source, we know there are EUV light sources available in China, the question is, the intensity of light, i.e. is it enough for manufacturing or not.
We have mixed signals about that. Also consider that SMEE only plans to release 28nm next year and 14nm(?) the year after that. Given their limited resources I doubt you'll see EUV from them before that period. Unfortunately, like I said, China under invested in its semiconductor tools sector for a long time. It is a bit of a miracle they have as much as they have.

Yes I think 2025 is not an impossible timeframe. But a lot of things need to happen right. By that time TSMC might be on 3nm or lower than that. The tools won't be that different, probably the major difference by then will be intensity of light source, so that is where I think the most efforts need to be focused. That and transistor design for the 3nm and lower nodes.
 
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horse

Junior Member
Registered Member
...Continued

-----------

What the Trump Administration never understood, and the authors of “The China Challenge” do not quite grasp, is that 5G broadband by itself is a cost, not a profit center. It is like the railroads of the 19th century, which enabled the First Industrial Revolution without making any money for their investors. Huawei and Ericsson accept a return on equity in the single digits because telecom infrastructure is inherently a low-margin business. All the real economic benefit comes from the businesses that 5G makes possible: Smart cities, flexible manufacturing, telemedicine, pollution controls, autonomous vehicles and so forth.
This part written Goldman, just want to regurgitate it one bit. It is that old expression, "a means to an end."

Huawei 5G is not the end, it is the means to the end.

That is very important. I thought that was understood by everybody, but I realized that people have trouble understanding tech. What Goldman is saying here, that the Trump administration did not understand, and that the professors and ex-officials from the Clinton/Obama administration did not understand. Essentially Goldman was saying these people are stupid.

Hehe . . .

David Goldman is correct. That is why he cannot write for mainstream media. He gives his honest opinion and tell what he believes is the truth. In his opinion, these people, cough cough, the ruling American elite, they don't get it.

That is unusual. America is a big country. If those goof balls do not understand, just get Bill Gates or Elon Musk to explain it to them.

The American ruling class cannot fathom how far behind they really are in the race for 5G. They probably 3 to 5 years behind just building the 5G network. Who knows what would be left for them to innovate on and not encroach on a patent already filed.

They cannot write 5G software when there is no 5G network, which has to be a standalone network. That is the strangest thing about the Trump administration. Why didn't they go ahead and just build out the base stations like mad? Try to stop Huawei or slow it down? They did not do a good job a that either. The 5G network has to be built, regardless of what anyone else does. And they did not do it.

Goldman knows it is stupid what happened these last 4 years. But he cannot say anything because if he does he will be labelled unpatriotic and lynched. Since he is an ethnic minority, that is assured.

:p
 
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ansy1968

Senior Member
Registered Member
It depends on if China can develop an EUV light source and masks. As we can see with the 28nm masks I think once someone has the materials available for them to sample it is pretty hard to keep it under wraps. With regards to the light source, we know there are EUV light sources available in China, the question is, the intensity of light, i.e. is it enough for manufacturing or not.
We have mixed signals about that. Also consider that SMEE only plans to release 28nm next year and 14nm(?) the year after that. Given their limited resources I doubt you'll see EUV from them before that period. Unfortunately, like I said, China under invested in its semiconductor tools sector for a long time. It is a bit of a miracle they have as much as they have.

Yes I think 2025 is not an impossible timeframe. But a lot of things need to happen right. By that time TSMC might be on 3nm or lower than that. The tools won't be that different, probably the major difference by then will be intensity of light source, so that is where I think the most efforts need to be focused. That and transistor design for the 3nm and lower nodes.
Hi gelgoog,

Again thanks bro for the explanation, So SMEE producing an EUVL will be the answer, and IF China had done its homework, by 2025 we will be on the same boat as the US. Hhhmmm not bad, not bad at all ;) ;) :cool:, I like the possibility:D:D:D Forget TSMC, being second to the same HAN race is good enough.
 

quantumlight

Junior Member
Registered Member
This part written Goldman, just want to regurgitate it one bit. It is that old expression, "a means to an end."

Huawei 5G is not the end, it is the means to the end.

That is very important. I thought that was understood by everybody, but I realized that people have trouble understanding tech. What Goldman is saying here, that the Trump administration did not understand, and that the professors and ex-officials from the Clinton/Obama administration did not understand. Essentially Goldman was saying these people are stupid.

Hehe . . .

David Goldman is correct. That is why he cannot write for mainstream media. He gives his honest opinion and tell what he believes is the truth. In his opinion, these people, cough cough, the ruling American elite, they don't get it.

That is unusual. America is a big country. If those goof balls do not understand, just get Bill Gates or Elon Musk to explain it to them.

The American ruling class cannot fathom how far behind they really are in the race for 5G. They probably 3 to 5 years behind just building the 5G network. Who knows what would be left for them to innovate on and not encroach on a patent already filed.

They cannot write 5G software when there is no 5G network, which has to be a standalone network. That is the strangest thing about the Trump administration. Why didn't they go ahead and just build out the base stations like mad? Try to stop Huawei or slow it down? They did not do a good job a that either. The 5G network has to be built, regardless of what anyone else does. And they did not do it.

Goldman knows it is stupid what happened these last 4 years. But he cannot say anything because if he does he will be labelled unpatriotic and lynched. Since he is an ethnic minority, that is assured.

:p
If USGov really wanted Apple out of China, Potus just needs to do an EO. As it stands, US is asymettrically decoupling, only cutting off ties that benefit China but allowing transactions that benefit itself, China/Huawei gets blocked out of the digital tech ecosystem but still allowing America to make profits off backs of Chinese talent and labor. Recall in 2018/19 Ren offered to sell Apple its Huawei 5G chips, now Apple gets full attention of TSMC, working 100% on iPhone 12 5G, whilst Huawei had to sell Honor and can only buy 4G chips from QualComm... this is without doubt the worst of both worlds for China...


Where is Xi rare earth ban? Where is the unreliable list?

Now Verizon is running ads everywhere bragging about being the worlds first, best, and fastest 5G network, Pompeo Clean Network signed up 50+ parnters and 2/3 world by GDP and China is about to lose access to all semiconductors and chips when Trump signs that EO he threatened
 

horse

Junior Member
Registered Member
If USGov really wanted Apple out of China, Potus just needs to do an EO. As it stands, US is asymettrically decoupling, only cutting off ties that benefit China but allowing transactions that benefit itself, China/Huawei gets blocked out of the digital tech ecosystem but still allowing America to make profits off backs of Chinese talent and labor. Recall in 2018/19 Ren offered to sell Apple its Huawei 5G chips, now Apple gets full attention of TSMC, working 100% on iPhone 12 5G, whilst Huawei had to sell Honor and can only buy 4G chips from QualComm... this is without doubt the worst of both worlds for China...


Where is Xi rare earth ban? Where is the unreliable list?

Now Verizon is running ads everywhere bragging about being the worlds first, best, and fastest 5G network, Pompeo Clean Network signed up 50+ parnters and 2/3 world by GDP and China is about to lose access to all semiconductors and chips when Trump signs that EO he threatened
Huawei has handed the US government its ass in this fight.

And you do not approve?

:cool:
 

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