Chinese semiconductor industry

FairAndUnbiased said:

Some short sighted market fundamentalists think this is stupid but I disagree. It's insurance.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

Well, I checked the twitter account of the journalist who wrote the article


It seems just one of the many anti-china propaganda little soldiers...nothing to see here. SCMP (owned by Alibaba) is not a bad newspaper, just that sometimes seems to force itself to publish articles by some anti-china journalists...

hvpc said:

Hi, bro.
Question, what is the reason behind the 300K wpm next year statement? I wonder if you heard something that I had missed.

There is not that many equipment available in the market to support a 200K wpm growth in one year. Also, YMTC's second fab could handle maximum another 100K wpm. More cleanroom space would be needed for it to reach the 300K wpm you speak of.

Click to expand...

This is the source


Of course opening the second fab within this year end, does not mean reaching full capacity within 2023, just that second fab seems to be a 200K wpm one, when fully ramped up. I have no idea how much it will take for YMTC to ramp it up at 100%.

Rettam Stacf said:

And who created this privileged position for YMTC ? - Not China, but the West, led by the US, for starting this economic war on China.

The situation is that YMTC does not even need to have products better than Micron or any other memory manufactures. It just need to have a equivalent product just as good and it will find eager and ready Chinese customers wishing to reduce their business risk.

We all wish YMTC to be competitive with high end products too. But so what if it does not. Every single memory chip sold by YMTC will displace an imported. And the market share will never be recovered in the foreseeable future.

Click to expand...

Yes, I agree with your view. I would add that here the target is not just the usual market /commercial one ("every single memory chip sold by YMTC will displace an imported").

This is a real tech war that we are witnessing, it is by all means a zero-sum game. Ancient western people (very ancient, before US even existed) used to say "Mors tua vita mea" (your death is my life), it's the ancient version of "zero-sum game".

The target here is to survive. And I am quite pessimistic that we haven't seen the worst yet....

european_guy said:

Yes, I agree with your view. I would add that here the target is not just the usual market /commercial one ("every single memory chip sold by YMTC will displace an imported").

This is a real tech war that we are witnessing, it is by all means a zero-sum game. Ancient western people (very ancient, before US even existed) used to say "Mors tua vita mea" (your death is my life), it's the ancient version of "zero-sum game".

The target here is to survive. And I am quite pessimistic that we haven't seen the worst yet....

Click to expand...

The situation is not as dire for YMTC than other domestic fabs.

3D NAND is not as litho intensive as Logic nor DRAM (its minimum feature size is quite “big” comparatively speaking). So impact or risk from getting cut off from EUV or advanced immersion scanner have less of an impact on YMTC.

And when SMEE immersion scanner comes into play, it’s enough to support YMTC’s bid to keep pace or exceed its competitor.

Same can’t be said for SMIC or CXMT, so you can feel pessimistic for them, but you can feel more optimistic for YMTC. ; )

hvpc said:

The situation is not as dire for YMTC than other domestic fabs.

3D NAND is not as litho intensive as Logic nor DRAM (its minimum feature size is quite “big” comparatively speaking). So impact or risk from getting cut off from EUV or advanced immersion scanner have less of an impact on YMTC.

And when SMEE immersion scanner comes into play, it’s enough to support YMTC’s bid to keep pace or exceed its competitor.

Same can’t be said for SMIC or CXMT, so you can feel pessimistic for them, but you can feel more optimistic for YMTC. ; )

Click to expand...

You are right from a technical point of view...but it happens that YMTC is the most succesful and fast growing one among them, quickly closing the technical gap with leaders. It even dared to offer its products to Apple!

To keep SMIC in line it's enough to deny them EUV access, this alone will naturally create more and more gap with the leaders as times goes on. For CXMT, they are flying very low and very quietly, they are very wise IMO.

But YMTC is going great and is very successful and this is an unforgivable sin.

european_guy said:

You are right from a technical point of view...but it happens that YMTC is the most succesful and fast growing one among them, quickly closing the technical gap with leaders. It even dared to offer its products to Apple!

To keep SMIC in line it's enough to deny them EUV access, this alone will naturally create more and more gap with the leaders as times goes on. For CXMT, they are flying very low and very quietly, they are very wise IMO.

But YMTC is going great and is very successful and this is an unforgivable sin.

Click to expand...

For instance...

european_guy said:

You are right from a technical point of view...but it happens that YMTC is the most succesful and fast growing one among them, quickly closing the technical gap with leaders. It even dared to offer its products to Apple!

To keep SMIC in line it's enough to deny them EUV access, this alone will naturally create more and more gap with the leaders as times goes on. For CXMT, they are flying very low and very quietly, they are very wise IMO.

But YMTC is going great and is very successful and this is an unforgivable sin.

Click to expand...

Lets see what happens. Necessity is the mother of invention.

european_guy said:

You are right from a technical point of view...but it happens that YMTC is the most succesful and fast growing one among them, quickly closing the technical gap with leaders. It even dared to offer its products to Apple!

To keep SMIC in line it's enough to deny them EUV access, this alone will naturally create more and more gap with the leaders as times goes on. For CXMT, they are flying very low and very quietly, they are very wise IMO.

But YMTC is going great and is very successful and this is an unforgivable sin.

Click to expand...

As Russian President Putin puts it in his reply during a Press Interview:
If we don't sell these Missile Early Warning Technology to China today and try to make some money in the process, the Chinese will just developed it themselves. And indeed they did.

Same applied to Huawei, SMIC and all the other Chinese Tech giants. No advanced nations can denied them the technology.

Now Bill Nelson is worried that CSA will dominated the moon. Conveniently forgetting to mention the Wolf Amendment of 2011 that cuts off al co-operation between China Space Agency and NASA.

I am seeing a repeat in semiconductors. Who will be the eventual losers?

I see the European ASML in the crystal ball for one.


These equipment are not creation of God and man-made and so they will be created by Chinese themselves.

Good day.

This is a bit of topic but just a reminder for all of you that every economic system is boiled down to how to convince a man to work toward something "voluntarily" by offering him: money, happiness, sex, drugs, faith, hatred, reprieve from being torture etc.
A economic system where instead of paying a man 100$/hr is the same as one where the pay is 1gr of met/hr, as long as the man works agreeably. So be grateful to the US for subsidizing Chinese semiconductor industry.

visitor123 said:

This is a bit of topic but just a reminder for all of you that every economic system is boiled down to how to convince a man to work toward something "voluntarily" by offering him: money, happiness, sex, drugs, faith, hatred, reprieve from being torture etc.
A economic system where instead of paying a man 100$/hr is the same as one where the pay is 1gr of met/hr, as long as the man works agreeably. So be grateful to the US for subsidizing Chinese semiconductor industry.

Click to expand...

@visitor123 bro it's very on topic, sanction is effective IF everybody agrees to implement it. Right now with recession looming and the only bright spot is the Chinese market lets see IF everybody comply... lol With the hurt we experiencing due to sanctioning Russia, the Chinese are daring the Collective West to Just Do It. and see the west collapse completely...lol