Chinese oversea bases

badoc said:

Yes, this is true.
I have read it on paper, The Straits Times, so no online link unfortunately.
Haha, we are in a difficult position, no doubt.

We need both of them now.
With our massive investments in China, I believe our future lies with China.

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"
Since 2013, China has been Singapore’s largest trading partner, and Singapore has been China’s largest foreign investor. "
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I know you're trying to paint Singapore a good picture, but your bolded fact isn't really a good argument. Singapore is a globally accepted tax haven, funded a large part by Chinese capital. Chinese capitalists hedging against the CPC would often move their capital to Singapore, then reuse that capital to reinvest in China.

coolgod said:

I know you're trying to paint Singapore a good picture, but your bolded fact isn't really a good argument. Singapore is a globally accepted tax haven, funded a large part by Chinese capital. Chinese capitalists hedging against the CPC would often move their capital to Singapore, then reuse that capital to reinvest in China.

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Chinese parking money in Singapore is a recent event.
Our economic relations with China goes back a long time.
From ethnic Chinese Singaporeans sending money back and personally carrying televisions back to their homeland.

27 years and counting: Suzhou Industrial Park goes from strength to strength

In 1985, former Deputy Prime Minister Goh Keng Swee was appointed by the Chinese government as the Economic Advisor to the State Council of the People’s Republic of China on coastal development, and later Advisor on tourism. The appointments played a crucial part in the formal establishment of Diplomatic Relations in 1990.
Now you know where the Free Economic Zone ideas in China came from.
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Andy1974 said:

If China ever opens a base in ASEAN, it ought to be in Singapore. This will follow the pattern in Djibouti which is to choose a host country that already hosts multiple foreign bases.

This will actually allow China to access the Malacca strait, and have the ability to close it to others.

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LOL, we'd be thanking our ancestors if Singapore doesn't stab us in the back the first chance it gets. Going against the US? No way in hell, not until the US is actually no longer in the picture, at which point China won't really need a base there anyway.

Now, for their own interests, Singapore doesn't want outright conflict between the US and China, but when the chips are down there's no doubt in my mind which side they'd be on. Make no mistake, Singapore is the single nation most hostile to Chinese interests in the ASEAN, and I am counting Vietnam. For its own self interest, at least, there's a limit as to how far Vietnam will go in dancing to the US' tune... Singapore asks 'how high' when Uncle Sam asks them to jump.

Preux said:

LOL, we'd be thanking our ancestors if Singapore doesn't stab us in the back the first chance it gets. Going against the US? No way in hell, not until the US is actually no longer in the picture, at which point China won't really need a base there anyway.

Now, for their own interests, Singapore doesn't want outright conflict between the US and China, but when the chips are down there's no doubt in my mind which side they'd be on. Make no mistake, Singapore is the single nation most hostile to Chinese interests in the ASEAN, and I am counting Vietnam. For its own self interest, at least, there's a limit as to how far Vietnam will go in dancing to the US' tune... Singapore asks 'how high' when Uncle Sam asks them to jump.

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My read is that Singapore will be officially neutral in any US-China war.

AndrewS said:

My read is that Singapore will be officially neutral in any US-China war.

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How ?

By denying access of US and her allies' warships and warplanes to Singapore bases ? By refusing to implement sanctions demanded by the West on China ?

Rettam Stacf said:

How ?

By denying access of US and her allies' warships and warplanes to Singapore bases ? By refusing to implement sanctions demanded by the West on China ?

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I would think both. Keep in mind that 25% of Singapore's trade are with China/HK. Implementing sanctions on China would be very costly. More importantly, there will be a lot of outraged mainlanders in Singapore if this happened. China is not Russia. And I cannot imagine Singapore allowing US to use its bases, since that would subject Singapore to large bombardment.

tphuang said:

I would think both. Keep in mind that 25% of Singapore's trade are with China/HK. Implementing sanctions on China would be very costly. More importantly, there will be a lot of outraged mainlanders in Singapore if this happened. China is not Russia. And I cannot imagine Singapore allowing US to use its bases, since that would subject Singapore to large bombardment.

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Between a rock and a hard place is the situation Singapore will find itself if conflict erupt between the two powers.

Thanks to LKY, Singapore have extensive contacts and backdoor communication with officials in China, so it is the US that may worry about any backstabbing.
As a tiny nation dependant on trade, we cannot afford to offend either powers.
We have to try our utmost to stay neutral to the very end.

Aug 01, 2018
New era of mutual learning for China and Singapore
"
Singapore has become one of the most important overseas training places for Chinese officials, with the most well-known training programmes offered by the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore and the Nanyang Centre for Public Administration at Nanyang Technological University. So far, nearly 50,000 Chinese officials of different levels have participated in study or training programmes in Singapore. "
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tphuang said:

I would think both. Keep in mind that 25% of Singapore's trade are with China/HK. Implementing sanctions on China would be very costly. More importantly, there will be a lot of outraged mainlanders in Singapore if this happened. China is not Russia. And I cannot imagine Singapore allowing US to use its bases, since that would subject Singapore to large bombardment.

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Compare to her fellow ASEAN countries, Singapore is in a far more difficult position if a US-China war breaks out.

The other ASEAN countries are already in a fairly neutral positions, so they just have to maintain the status quo. For Singapore, she has to shift from a US ally to a neutral country. It will not sit well with the US and her allies. And Singapore does not have the geopolitical and strategic value of India to temper any wrath from the West.

Rettam Stacf said:

Compare to her fellow ASEAN countries, Singapore is in a far more difficult position if a US-China war breaks out.

The other ASEAN countries are already in a fairly neutral positions, so they just have to maintain the status quo. For Singapore, she has to shift from a US ally to a neutral country. It will not sit well with the US and her allies. And Singapore does not has the geopolitical and strategic value of India to temper any wrath from the West.

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Singapore currently has 1 child per couple. Among the lowest in the world. It has to continue to import Chinese people to keep the han majority. Without china, Singapore is screwed. That's even ignoring the economic impact and the impact of Chinese military action against Singapore bases with American forces. Singapore is a very small country. You can drive from the Malaysian border entrance to vivocity in 30 minutes. siding with either side will be catastrophic to Singapore infrastructure. Singapore cannot afford to do anything but stay neutral.

tphuang said:

I would think both. Keep in mind that 25% of Singapore's trade are with China/HK. Implementing sanctions on China would be very costly. More importantly, there will be a lot of outraged mainlanders in Singapore if this happened. China is not Russia. And I cannot imagine Singapore allowing US to use its bases, since that would subject Singapore to large bombardment.

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You've given some good reasons why Singapore should at least remain neutral in a US-China war, but acting on those reasons assumes that Singapore has the sovereignty to do so. I do not believe that to be the case. Singapore is "independent" in the sense that it can run its own post office, but its foreign policy is set in Washington. Its military gear is entirely supplied by the US; if the US abandons it, Malaysia can knock it over in an afternoon.

What's worse is that Singapore's elite seem perfectly content with this. I point to what the Singaporean defense minister responded with to a PLA officer's warning that China could choose not to attend the Shangri-La summit.

tphuang said:

Singapore currently has 1 child per couple. Among the lowest in the world. It has to continue to import Chinese people to keep the han majority.

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There isn't any reason to think this factors into Singaporean decision making. It's a very long term problem, and a war in which China is damaged would increase the flow of Chinese immigrants to Singapore.