Chinese Economics Thread

[manqiangrexue]

i didn't say majority of grad went to US for work, i said there are alot foreigner worker in US. software is probably require the most amount of workers compare to other fields. but US company certainly have alot options when choosing foreign tech worker. Consider majority of US grad school are filled with indian, chinese etc. Many of them will submit resume , attend job fair etc
looking at university etc, when was the last time there are more white american professor than someone from india/china or other countries in STEM.

Yo you should work for Justin Trudeau's "Create the Conditions" Office cus you are really really good at saying nothing LOL. What does "a lot" and "many" mean?? You're calling other people teenagers while they give empirical evidence and you try to rebutt with "But I saw a lot."

I have a lotttt of sprinkles on this ice cream; it's gotta be a record or something! It's amazing; other guys gotta be reeling! Sprinkle guy's gotta be kickin' himself for accidentally giving me so many! [Insert smiley face to show how confident you are that it's totally a lot.]

Actually, you have 216 sprinkles; the average is 259 with a standard deviation of 23. It's not that impressive.

What?! You're being a teenager! This is a lot! It's so many; I'm looking at it! It's my opinion; why are you so sensitive/agitated that I have a different opinion?!

 

[xypher]

Hope Sleepy will be there again when the US releases news about the "unexpected" GDP contraction for the 2022 in January.

 

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

See, when you show your work, I can show you why you're wrong! I mean... you can't read it from this account anymore but when you get a new account, you can see now why you're wrong. Year to date growth means how much you've grown since Q4 of last year. You don't average 3 quarters and compare them to the average of 3 of last year's quarters because there's no such thing as an average of 3 continuous quarters; the sole concept doesn't make sense. The GDP number is continuous; they don't add onto each other because every quarter is what the last quarter became. So!

According to your chart, the US gdp was 20,006.2 in Q4 2021 and now it is 20,021.7 in Q3 2022 and you divide the latter by the former and you get a 200217/200062=1.00077. That's 0.077% growth year-to-date for the US. This is why if you search for year-to-date growth, all US economists say it took Q3's 2.6% to bring that number barely positive. Year-to-date growth shows how the economy is doing this year, which is what we are trying to compare.

For China:

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"On a yearly basis, the economy also grew by 3.9% in the third quarter, picking up from a 0.4% expansion in the prior period and bringing the year-to-date growth to 3%."

In other words, since Q4 2021, China grew 3% while the US grew 0.077%. What's 3/0.077? It's ugly; you know it's ugly, right? It's almost 40 times.

lol. Please we all get confused here, because the USA as a country almost every time, everywhere (media) uses annualized rate, when we want to compare YoY growth. That's why we need to dig more to get USA numbers right. And the rest of the world uses yoy rates, so in the media, that data is easily available.

Every few weeks someone here or on Twitter etc. compares China YoY growth rate to USA's annualized rate lol. So let's end it here and when new data comes go there

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for the USA and there for China

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So in the end, for the first 3q of 2022, China's yoy growth over 2021 is about 3%, and USA's 2,4%. End of topic.

China 2022 yoy growth
1q= 4,8%
2q= 0,4%
3q= 3,9%


USA 2022 yoy growth rate
1q= 3,7%
2q= 1,8%
3q= 1,78%

 

[supercat]

A lot of IPO in China in 2022:

China leads global equity IPO volumes this year​

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There are almost 1,000 South Korea companies in Yancheng, northeastern Jiangsu.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595604202599763970

 

[manqiangrexue]

lol. Please we all get confused here, because the USA as a country almost every time, everywhere (media) uses annualized rate, when we want to compare YoY growth. That's why we need to dig more to get USA numbers right. And the rest of the world uses yoy rates, so in the media, that data is easily available.

Every few weeks someone here or on Twitter etc. compares China YoY growth rate to USA's annualized rate lol. So let's end it here and when new data comes go there

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for the USA and there for China

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So in the end, for the first 3q of 2022, China's yoy growth over 2021 is about 3%, and USA's 2,4%. End of topic.

China 2022 yoy growth
1q= 4,8%
2q= 0,4%
3q= 3,9%
View attachment 102383

USA 2022 yoy growth rate
1q= 3,7%
2q= 1,8%
3q= 1,78%

View attachment 102384

Those are three different types of economic measures for the first 3 quarters of 2022.

Quarter on quarter: China 2.7% vs USA 0.35%

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China goes 1.016x0.973x1.039=1.027 which is 2.7% and the US goes at 0.984x0.994x1.026=1.0035, which is 0.35%.

Year-to-date: China 3% vs USA 0.0077%

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China gets 3% as declared (first link again) and the US one needs to be calculated as it was 20,006.2B in Q4 2021 and now it is 20,021.7B in Q3 2022 and you divide the latter by the former and you get a 200217/200062=1.00077. That's 0.077% growth year-to-date for the US.

Year on year is what you laid out.

Now as I understand, to analyze the trend of 2022 as a separate time-block to the years prior, (as they were already compared separately in pre-COVID and COVID categories with the 2022 block being considered "post-COVID" by the US definition), Q-on-Q and Y-to-D would be correct to use. Once the year is over and Q4 is included, the overall year data can be directly compared with prior years and added to the trend for both China and the US. The main reason the US looks better with year on year is because the US was very low in 2020 and recovering in 2021 so the first 3 quarters of 2021 were still low and easy to compare to. The US reached a high point in Q4 and basically held stagnant as the combined effect of 2022 Q1-3. That stagnant hold compared to a previous year's rise from a low point makes the year on year comparison look good for the US but in reality, the US basically did not move so far in 2022 and China moved 3% up. That's my take-away.

 

[TK3600]

Those are three different types of economic measures for the first 3 quarters of 2022.

Quarter on quarter: China 2.7% vs USA 0.35%

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China goes 1.016x0.973x1.039=1.027 which is 2.7% and the US goes at 0.984x0.994x1.026=1.0035, which is 0.35%.

Year-to-date: China 3% vs USA 0.0077%

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China gets 3% as declared (first link again) and the US one needs to be calculated as it was 20,006.2B in Q4 2021 and now it is 20,021.7B in Q3 2022 and you divide the latter by the former and you get a 200217/200062=1.00077. That's 0.077% growth year-to-date for the US.

Year on year is what you laid out.

Now as I understand, to analyze the trend of 2022 as a separate time-block to the years prior, (as they were already compared separately in pre-COVID and COVID categories with the 2022 block being considered "post-COVID" by the US definition), Q-on-Q and Y-to-D would be correct to use. Once the year is over and Q4 is included, the overall year data can be directly compared with prior years and added to the trend for both China and the US. The main reason the US looks better with year on year is because the US was very low in 2020 and recovering in 2021 so the first 3 quarters of 2021 were still low and easy to compare to. The US reached a high point in Q4 and basically held stagnant as the combined effect of 2022 Q1-3. That stagnant hold compared to a previous year's rise from a low point makes the year on year comparison look good for the US but in reality, the US basically did not move so far in 2022 and China moved 3% up. That's my take-away.

My guy you forgot to account for inflation. Let's see how much US really "grow" in 2022.

 

[luosifen]

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2022-11-25 17:39:01Ecns.cn Editor : Zhao Li

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(ECNS) -- China officially issued a personal pension system in 36 cities on Friday, according to the country's Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security.
Citizens can deposit up to 12,000 yuan ($1,675) per year to their individual accounts and receive tax benefits.
They are able to open their personal pension fund accounts with six large state-owned commercial banks, 12 joint-stock banks, five urban commercial banks,11 wealth management companies, 14 securities companies, seven independent fund sales institutions and six insurance companies, etc.
Citizens can voluntarily invest in qualified products, including banking wealth management products, deposits, insurance and public funds.
People receive personal pensions as long as they reached the retirement age, lose their working capability entirely, or settle abroad, etc.
The fund can be inherited after death.

 

[tonyget]

I don't think economic development is the priority of the government at the moment，covid control is.

It's hard to put the economy back on track，under current back and forth covid-lockdown environment，economic activities will be interrupted that's unavoidable.

Is it worth it？We shall see

 

[manqiangrexue]

I don't think economic development is the priority of the government at the moment，covid control is.

It's hard to put the economy back on track，under current back and forth covid-lockdown environment，economic activities will be interrupted that's unavoidable.

Is it worth it？We shall see

Oh yeah, it's worth it. China and the US took polar opposite approaches to COVID and in the end, the US proved that sacrificing lives to save the economy doesn't work and China proved that saving lives is the only way to save the economy.

Chinese Economics Thread

Sounds like more fanatical zero COVID to absolutely pummel business investment and consumption in China for decades (or maybe centuries until broad spectrum antivirals come close to being effective) Not centuries, but millenia! Seriously, this is ROFL... You are not worthy of inheriting Gordan...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

"Before COVID, China was going 2.48 times faster than the US; during COVID, it became 5.06 [edited up from an original 3.88 to correct typo] times, and this year, while the US is totally open and China still with COVID Zero, it became 7.71 times."

@Jiang ZeminFanboy Hold on, I just wanna confirm something. As I understand, you cannot multiply the growth of quarters together if the numbers were taken as year-on-year as that no longer makes them consecutively compared. They are compared to quarters that are 4 quarters prior. You can multiply year-on-year full years because each year is compared to the prior year in a consecutive manner; you can multiply quarter-on-quarter to compare consecutive quarters for the same reason but you cannot multiply quarters together if they were compared on a year-to-year basis. Is this your understanding as well? This is why I don't think the China 3% vs USA 2.4% year on year so far makes sense.

 

[tonyget]

Oh yeah, it's worth it. China and the US took polar opposite approaches to COVID and in the end, the US proved that sacrificing lives to save the economy doesn't work and China proved that saving lives is the only way to save the economy.

Chinese Economics Thread

Sounds like more fanatical zero COVID to absolutely pummel business investment and consumption in China for decades (or maybe centuries until broad spectrum antivirals come close to being effective) Not centuries, but millenia! Seriously, this is ROFL... You are not worthy of inheriting Gordan...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

"Before COVID, China was going 2.48 times faster than the US; during COVID, it became 5.06 [edited up from an original 3.88 to correct typo] times, and this year, while the US is totally open and China still with COVID Zero, it became 7.71 times."

China's GDP vs US GDP，the gap is actually widened not narrowed now. But if the authority believe it's worth it，so be it