Chinese Economics Thread

s002wjh

Junior Member
the % of H1B visas being issued is tiny compared to the graduates of Chinese universities.

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only 40k issued to Chinese, 70%+ issued to Indians but even that is only 300k.
i know, but i dont think US tech have the capacity to handle millions foreign tech worker. just recently there are layoff in the meta field. also alot these graduate will get valuable experience working in place such as intel/amd/applied materials etc, those XP and knowledge can't been acquired easily in grad school.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
i know, but i dont think US tech have the capacity to handle millions foreign tech worker. just recently there are layoff in the meta field. also alot these graduate will get valuable experience working in place such as intel/amd/applied materials etc, those XP and knowledge can't been acquired easily in grad school.
but that has nothing to do with your original assertion that a large fraction of graduates from Chinese universities goes to work for the US. Less than 1% are even capable of doing so. Maybe a sizable portion of India, but not China. And the biggest users of H1B is not semiconductor, materials, aerospace, etc, but software.
 

s002wjh

Junior Member
but that has nothing to do with your original assertion that a large fraction of graduates from Chinese universities goes to work for the US. Less than 1% are even capable of doing so. Maybe a sizable portion of India, but not China. And the biggest users of H1B is not semiconductor, materials, aerospace, etc, but software.
i didn't say majority of grad went to US for work, i said there are alot foreigner worker in US. software is probably require the most amount of workers compare to other fields. but US company certainly have alot options when choosing foreign tech worker. Consider majority of US grad school are filled with indian, chinese etc. Many of them will submit resume , attend job fair etc
looking at university etc, when was the last time there are more white american professor than someone from india/china or other countries in STEM.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
i didn't say majority of grad went to US for work, i said there are alot foreigner worker in US. software is probably require the most amount of workers compare to other fields. but US company certainly have alot options when choosing foreign tech worker. Consider majority of US grad school are filled with indian, chinese etc. Many of them will submit resume , attend job fair etc
looking at university etc, when was the last time there are more white american professor than someone from india/china or other countries in STEM.
That is a totally different concept, but note that 40k Chinese H1B holders is a combination of people hired directly from China and those who go to US, educated at US expense, and then work in US.

Btw your original statement:
yea except alot these chinese or indian graduates work in US. US just import talents from all over the world.

Alot is relative. 40k is a lot in isolation, it is nothing compared to 4000k total graduates. And not all of these are STEM, this is total H1B so includes accountants, propaganda workers, etc.
 

horse

Major
Registered Member
it seem even slight different opinion than yours, you get so work up. got a mental maturity of teens ;) anyway no point to reply more cause i know u just gonna bring out all the curse language every time someone had different opinions than you :eek: so out of curiosity why dont you be a hero and work in china. because like you said.

You are just lying, that is why.

It is like saying a country relying mercenaries is a source of strength.
 

hans_r

New Member
Registered Member
No, those numbers were not cobbled from random sites that report differently; they were obtained from the same site with the functional purpose of making things comparable to each other. The numbers on that site are directly comparable, maybe not to other sites, but certainly to each other.

Your 1.25X has no formula and came out of nowhere. If you wish to establish it, list your sources and your formulas, yes, both of them. Like I did, list the sources for your numbers (make sure they are comparable), the formula through which you've arrived at America's 2022 Q1-3 total and China's 2022 Q1-3 total. |
Sure thing:

For China:
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, "
In the first three quarters, China's GDP grew by 3 percent year-on-year to 87.03 trillion yuan ($12 trillion), up from 2.5 percent rise in the first half, the bureau said."

For the United States: Annualized United States Real GDP in 2021 were 19,216.22; 19,544.25 and 19,678.59 for 1Q, 2Q and 3Q respectively. For 2022, they were 19,924.01; 19,895.27; and 20.021.70. The US 1Q-3Q21 average if GDP was 19,479.69 and for 1Q-3Q22, it was 19,946.99 or a 2.4% increase. (
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3/2.4 = 1.25.
Or we can just wait for annual 2022 data to come out and prove you wrong again.
You can wait, it's going to show China significantly decelerated vis-a-vis the United States
Just now, you're admitting that China accelerated its economic growth in relation to the US during COVID whereas in all your previous accounts, you pretended that that was not the case. In the future, you will admit that China won 2022, 2023, 2024, etc... year-by-year but try to twist data for why it's losing 20XX.
It's unambigiously true that China's convergence vis-a-vis the United States has slowed substantially in the first 3 quarters of 2021 and since China still has zero COVID, well, lol, 2022 counts as part of COVID as well.
There was actually a typo when I got the 3.88X. For China 2020 and 2021, it's actually 1.0224x1.0811=1.1053 to America's 0.966x1.0567=1.0208, which is 10.53% to 2.08%, which is 5.06X. Then 7.71X followed.
1.25x followed. Even if you assume the most bullish growth forecasts for China (i.e.; China grows 4% in 2022) and the most bearish growth forecasts foor the United States (i.e., the US grows at 1.9% in 2022), the US economy would be 4% larger than it was in 2020; China's would be 14.9% larger or about 2x. So indeed, zero COVID has truly cut the rate for which CHina's economic convergence happened from a pre-COVID of 3.88x to a during-COVID of 3.66x (yes, 2022 counts as a during-COVID since China still has fanatical zero-COVID)
Additionally, this is nominal GDP
Um, yes? But in any case, PPP and NOminal GDP growth basically track each other since GDP growth units are always reported in local currency units
1. Even if China was growing at 1.25x the pace of the US, it is still converging in nominal terms.
If the US grew at 2.4% continuously and China grew at 3% continously, China would only surpass the US in 45 years (but it would probably never happen since China's GDP growth would fall substantially due to the demographic crisis)
It's only NOT converging in PPP terms because it's ahead of the US and enlarging that lead.
PPP terms try to correct for cost of living differences but trying to correct for the mechanism by which economic development happens is indeed LOLCOW (
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2. Don't use words when you don't know what they mean, even if in your imagination, they make you sound smart
Metastisize - (of a cancer) spread to other sites in the body by metastasis.
Metastasis - the development of secondary malignant growths at a distance from a primary site of cancer
Here's another word: vernacular which you can look up (
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). Metastasize is used in the vernacular to describe an issue getting bigger and getting worse - the Merriam-Webster has a few examples of that :).
Oh, so now it's not "irreparable" anymore, eh? LOL You so desperately want to see China make a mistake and end up like the US you can't even hide it.
It's irreparable: birth rates have already crashed, labor force participation is already lower and business investment activity is forever lower as well - whether it recovers to some semblance to normal or whether it doesn't is of course, up to China to see if it wants to correct its own fanatical zero COVID mistakes can get to maybe 4-5% growth, maybe not.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
What kind of high level cope is this? China very much wants economic growth (
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), it just can’t get it because of zero COVID fanaticism, business crackdowns and hostility towards the private sector, an inefficient private sector, sanctions, weak educational attainment, bad population health, etc. if China wanted to limit spillovers to western grown: China could stop trade and investment with the West (of course, that’s not happening, the reverse is).
Stopping trade has political consequences. We saw that when China sanctioned Lithuania.

Why are the lockdowns only affecting the non essential parts of the Chinese economy. Why don't we hear about military projects being slowed down?

If China wanted economic growth it could just end the zero covid mandate, we seem to agree on that.
Being able to build almost anything implies being unable to build some things, I.e., future potential growth. Of course, China’s lack of strength or scale in high-tech manufacturing is available for the world to see with the recent semiconductor sanctions (and China’s inability to duplicate what ASML can produce, with its 31K employees).

There’s more to demand growth than export growth - consumption and investment driven growth are also possible (well except for now due to fanatical zero COVID lol)

Except somehow raise incomes. But nah, there’s always more demands for money than there is money to fulfill them.

Fewer resources doesn’t favor the Chinese consumer in any way.
Yes, China needs to move away from export lead growth and switch over to consumer based growth. This can't happen overnight and will take a reorientation of the economy.

As for fewer resources, Chinese manufacturing output is far more than the domestic market can handle.

Slightly offtopic. How do you feel about America bribing and coercing semiconductor manufacturers to relocate to America?
 

Lnk111229

Junior Member
Registered Member
Stopping trade has political consequences. We saw that when China sanctioned Lithuania.

Why are the lockdowns only affecting the non essential parts of the Chinese economy. Why don't we hear about military projects being slowed down?

If China wanted economic growth it could just end the zero covid mandate, we seem to agree on that.

Yes, China needs to move away from export lead growth and switch over to consumer based growth. This can't happen overnight and will take a reorientation of the economy.

As for fewer resources, Chinese manufacturing output is far more than the domestic market can handle.

Slightly offtopic. How do you feel about America bribing and coercing semiconductor manufacturers to relocate to America?
You late mate! He is being exterminatus. Amen for Sleepy Amendment.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Sure thing:

For China:
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, "
In the first three quarters, China's GDP grew by 3 percent year-on-year to 87.03 trillion yuan ($12 trillion), up from 2.5 percent rise in the first half, the bureau said."

For the United States: Annualized United States Real GDP in 2021 were 19,216.22; 19,544.25 and 19,678.59 for 1Q, 2Q and 3Q respectively. For 2022, they were 19,924.01; 19,895.27; and 20.021.70. The US 1Q-3Q21 average if GDP was 19,479.69 and for 1Q-3Q22, it was 19,946.99 or a 2.4% increase. (
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)

3/2.4 = 1.25.
See, when you show your work, I can show you why you're wrong! I mean... you can't read it from this account anymore but when you get a new account, you can see now why you're wrong. Year to date growth means how much you've grown since Q4 of last year. You don't average 3 quarters and compare them to the average of 3 of last year's quarters because there's no such thing as an average of 3 continuous quarters; the sole concept doesn't make sense. The GDP number is continuous; they don't add onto each other because every quarter is what the last quarter became. So!

According to your chart, the US gdp was 20,006.2 in Q4 2021 and now it is 20,021.7 in Q3 2022 and you divide the latter by the former and you get a 200217/200062=1.00077. That's 0.077% growth year-to-date for the US. This is why if you search for year-to-date growth, all US economists say it took Q3's 2.6% to bring that number barely positive. Year-to-date growth shows how the economy is doing this year, which is what we are trying to compare.

For China:
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"On a yearly basis, the economy also grew by 3.9% in the third quarter, picking up from a 0.4% expansion in the prior period and bringing the year-to-date growth to 3%."

In other words, since Q4 2021, China grew 3% while the US grew 0.077%. What's 3/0.077? It's ugly; you know it's ugly, right? It's almost 40 times.
You can wait, it's going to show China significantly decelerated vis-a-vis the United States
Live in the now, and I just showed you what it looks like now with year-to-date growth. Whatever Q4 turns into, China's still converging in nominal terms, leaving the US behind. Next year, US 3rd recession LOL
It's unambigiously true that China's convergence vis-a-vis the United States has slowed substantially in the first 3 quarters of 2021
Proven wrong above
and since China still has zero COVID, well, lol, 2022 counts as part of COVID as well.
Tell that to the US LOL Still people dying, politicians saying it's post-COVID.
1.25x followed. Even if you assume the most bullish growth forecasts for China (i.e.; China grows 4% in 2022) and the most bearish growth forecasts foor the United States (i.e., the US grows at 1.9% in 2022), the US economy would be 4% larger than it was in 2020; China's would be 14.9% larger or about 2x. So indeed, zero COVID has truly cut the rate for which CHina's economic convergence happened from a pre-COVID of 3.88x to a during-COVID of 3.66x (yes, 2022 counts as a during-COVID since China still has fanatical zero-COVID)
Gonna ignore cus the underlying 1.25 was proven wrong but at a glance, 14.9% is actually more than 3X, closer to 4X the value of 4%... and also, 3.88X (corrected to over 5%) is during COVID, 2.48 was pre-COVID and now it's... almost 40X year-to-date. Don't get your numbers "conveniently" mixed up. Fanatical Zero COVID destroyed dumbass "It's gonna disappear like a miracle."
Um, yes? But in any case, PPP and NOminal GDP growth basically track each other
Not when the US is jacking up its currency value by over 10% to try to stop inflation.
since GDP growth units are always reported in local currency units
That's called PPP. They're reported in USD converted value for nominal. That's the difference.
If the US grew at 2.4% continuously and China grew at 3% continously, China would only surpass the US in 45 years (but it would probably never happen since China's GDP growth would fall substantially due to the demographic crisis)
LOL If. That's in your imagination. The US has basically no growth this year to now and is slated for another recession after the recession this year. If LOL
PPP terms try to correct for cost of living differences
ok so far...
but trying to correct for the mechanism by which economic development happens
aaand you're gone. The mechanism by which economic development happens needs to correction; this sentence makes no sense already. PPP is what the nation actually produced.
is indeed LOLCOW (
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The US trying to decouple trade despite trade being the only reason nominal GDP exists falsly propping up the US economy is LOLCOW (dumbass disease).
Here's another word: vernacular which you can look up (
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). Metastasize is used in the vernacular to describe an issue getting bigger and getting worse - the Merriam-Webster has a few examples of that :).
Your link opens up to define it as a cancer mechanism. Your sentence referred to a slowdown as a metastasis when even used loosly, it would mean the opposite. Smiley faces don't reverse the meanings of words, unfortunately for you.
It's irreparable:
Then why does convergence depend on China's use of Zero COVID?
birth rates have already crashed,
They were decreasing with modernization; has nothing to do with COVID.
labor force participation is already lower and business investment activity is forever lower as well
Unfortunately for you, forever doesn't mean for the short time up to now or an undefined period of time according to your hopium. As long as the US suffers worse, and it is, we're more than on track.
- whether it recovers to some semblance to normal or whether it doesn't is of course, up to China to see if it wants to correct its own fanatical zero COVID mistakes can get to maybe 4-5% growth, maybe not.
"Come on, China, get rid of Zero COVID! It'll be so good afterwards LOL It's irreparable but not irreparable; just come on and be like us." LOLOL Sad desperate West
 
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