Chinese Economics Thread

[gadgetcool5]

delete

 

[ansy1968]

There are a lot of base effects going on due to 2020. I calculated the compound growth rate since 2019. Here is what we've gotten so far if you look at a smoothed rate assuming equal growth in 2020 and 2021:

Exports +15%
Industrial production +8%
Imports +8%
Retail spending +3%
Fixed asset investment +2%
========

Overall, it seems that overseas trade and industrial output is doing a lot of the heavy lifting, domestic spending and investment seem stagnant. IMO these numbers validate that the government is correct to focus on increasing domestic demand. But to do that, they will have to put more money into consumers' pockets.

@gadgetcool5 because Western Countries have done an enormous fiscal stimulus while China do the opposite

 

[Deleted member 15887]

There are a lot of base effects going on due to 2020. I calculated the compound growth rate since 2019. Here is what we've gotten so far if you look at a smoothed rate assuming equal growth in 2020 and 2021:

Exports +15%
Industrial production +8%
Imports +8%
Retail spending +3%
Fixed asset investment +2%
========

Overall, it seems that overseas trade and industrial output is doing a lot of the heavy lifting, domestic spending and investment seem stagnant. IMO these numbers validate that the government is correct to focus on increasing domestic demand. But to do that, they will have to put more money into consumers' pockets.

Weird, I calculated 6%+ increase in retail spending (not averaged)

 

[LesAdieux]

There are a lot of base effects going on due to 2020. I calculated the compound growth rate since 2019. Here is what we've gotten so far if you look at a smoothed rate assuming equal growth in 2020 and 2021:

Exports +15%
Industrial production +8%
Imports +8%
Retail spending +3%
Fixed asset investment +2%
========

Overall, it seems that overseas trade and industrial output is doing a lot of the heavy lifting, domestic spending and investment seem stagnant. IMO these numbers validate that the government is correct to focus on increasing domestic demand. But to do that, they will have to put more money into consumers' pockets.

there's no point to take the two years average when one year was simply lost due to the pandemic.

 

[gadgetcool5]

Weird, I calculated 6%+ increase in retail spending (not averaged)

Well let's see,

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says:

"Retail sales increased 33.8%, also faster than a forecast 32% rise and marking a significant jump from 4.6% growth in December and a 20.5% contraction for January-February of 2020."

If 100=2019 base value for January-February 2019, then a 20.5% drop gives 79.5 for 2020. If you take 79.5 x 1.338 = 6.4%. And indeed, the article states:

"Despite the statistical noise in the latest data, other measures show a broad-based recovery with industrial output up 16.9% and retail sales growing 6.4% compared with the first two months of 2019."

A 6.4% rise over two years is the annual growth rate compounded. (1.032 x 1.032 = 1.065) or 6.5%. Thus, the annual rate of retail spending growth over the period was roughly just under 3.2%.

 

[LesAdieux]

Come on guy back to Chinese economy It is getting boring reporting on Chinese economy keep winning even consumption went up

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China's factory output surges as recovery accelerates​

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's industrial output growth quickened in January-February, beating expectations, as the vast manufacturing sector started 2021 on a firm footing and the economy consolidated its brisk recovery.

Retail sales in the period also rose in a boost to domestic demand, giving a strong lift to business activity on top of the recent upsurge in exports growth.

Industrial output rose 35.1% in the first two months from a year earlier, up from a 7.3% on-year uptick seen in December, data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday. That was stronger than a median forecast of a 30.0% surge in a Reuters poll of analysts.

consumption and investment have not fully recovered yet.

 

[canniBUS]

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China has 1,058 billionaires, outpacing the US: Hurun report​

BEIJING (Global Times): China has outpaced the US to become the first country in the world with more than 1,000 billionaires, according to the newly released 2021 Hurun Global Rich List.

In total, at the beginning of 2021, China now has 1,058 billionaires with their wealth denominated in US dollar, an increase of 259 billionaires from the number last year.


"Despite the trade war with the US, China adds 259 billionaires and becomes the first country with more than 1,000 known billionaires, suppassing other countries including the US, India, and Germany," said the report.

Globally, 412 new billionaires have been added this year, which brings the world'stotal billionaires to 3,228 at present.


Even after being impacted by the pandemic last year, entrepreneurs from China have performed well on the Hurun List.

Zhong Shanshan, founder of Nongfu Spring, became the first Chinese entrepreneur to make it to the top 10 of the world's wealthiest people list with 550 billion yuan US$84.96 billion) in personal wealth.

Ma Huateng, CEO of Tencent, ranks second on the list of China's wealthiest people with an 70 percent of increase of his wealth to 480 billion yuan.

Huang Zheng, founder of Pinduoduo, surpassed Jack Ma and ranked third on the list of China's wealthiest people with 450 billion yuan.

ByteDance founder Zhang Yiming's wealth tripled last year, and he was ranked on the top 5 of China's wealthiest people for the first time with 350 billion yuan.

Lei Jun, founder of Xiaomi, doubled his wealth to 204 billion yuan and entered the top 50 of the world's wealthiest people list. - Global Times

This is not something to be celebrated, this is a misallocation of wealth. All these billions would be better off being invested into key industries and infrastructure.

 

[hashtagpls]

It's inevitable that China with its largest population and wealth is going to have more billionaires than the US, what they should be reminded of, is their loyalty to China since billionaires and the ultra rich tend to forget about these things and become "globalists", in reality american stooges.

 

[Sleepyjam]

This is not something to be celebrated, this is a misallocation of wealth. All these billions would be better off being invested into key industries and infrastructure.

What makes you think rich people don’t invest? Besides a lot of the wealth is from shares of stocks.

 

[voyager1]

A lot of rich people.previously invested millions and billions of dollars outside China in real estate in other countries. This phenomenon is so strong that other countries have part of their countries supported by real estate taxes produced by Chinese investments lol.
China should seriously start tackling this huge problem of the "elite" rich people abandoning China which allowed them to build their wealth in the first place.

Imagine having half the population in poverty or poor conditions, urgently requiring investments and then watching rich Chinese people which built their wealth upon the back of countless poorly paid, hard working Chinese labour to piss their money away in foreign hostile countries.

Billionaires must learn that the money they made with China's help must be at least partly reinvested back into the country to help improve the the lives of the people. I give Xi credit that he is starting doing some of this and the Jack Ma situation.