Chinese Economics Thread

free_6ix9ine

Junior Member
Registered Member
As it currently stands, there is no reason for any major Western corporation to stick its neck out for Huawei. If any major company defects from Washington, then they will have to bear the pain as well. And for what benefit?

The Chinese market is not influential enough to bear the wrath of Washington for. That much is clear. Beijing therefore has no leverage with these foreign companies.

We can consider the usage of American technology throughout supply chains as an extension of the American network. The American network has its center in Washington, and spreads out like a root system throughout the world. Other technological networks are like that.

The principle task is to challenge this root network directly. One can try to grow their own technological network, but that takes time. And as gadgetcool says, the other networks are all connected to each other, while China's would be isolated. I read somewhere that the key to Huawei's innovation was its global network of campuses, drawing in talent from all countries around the world. Huawei is not a 100% indigenous company, but an attempt to grow the Chinese tech network. It is therefore obvious that "self sufficiency" is not the solution going forward, although it is necessary.

One can try to cut off the American technological network, but that hurts you more than America, since American influence is larger.

Another option may be to "subvert" the network via positive feedback. Technological jujitsu, using the American network's size against it.

Lets consider oil for instance. Oil is used at every level of the industrial chain. The effects of an oil shock would be at first very devastating, but as the shock goes on, the economic effects are transformed into "whole of society effects." Economic devastation begets technological stagnation, which leads to social disintegration, which feeds back into economics, then technological, then social again. A positive feedback loop towards negative ends.

The more oil dependent a network is, the more devastating the effects. Whereas a third world nation with low technology levels will adapt easier to an oil free lifestyle, major technological societies will collapse viciously.

An oil shock is therefore contagious, as damage in one sector cannot be limited to that sector, but spreads to every other sector connected to it. We can consider American sanctions to be just as contagious. Such an incident is very asymmetrical in regards to force applied vs effect achieved. (Remember, Iran's self defense strategy was to blow up the Straits of hormuz, and the world economy along with it).

What contagion can be applied to American technology, such that using it imposes costs on global capital, forcing it to choose the Chinese side?

Is there, for example, some very exploitable flaw in x86 / ARM chip architecture as opposed to RISC-V?

Western corporations may not want to directly help, but if there is a vacuum it will always be filled. Foreign companies are not stupid, if making your equipment in the US means that you can't export it to China, means that they will split off an entity in another country and offshore that part. Businesses by nature are competitive and if there is demand it will be filled. If it isn't filled by foreign companies it will be filled by domestic companies.
 

SPOOPYSKELETON

Junior Member
Registered Member
Western corporations may not want to directly help, but if there is a vacuum it will always be filled. Foreign companies are not stupid, if making your equipment in the US means that you can't export it to China, means that they will split off an entity in another country and offshore that part. Businesses by nature are competitive and if there is demand it will be filled. If it isn't filled by foreign companies it will be filled by domestic companies.

Conceptually speaking, China is trying to break a cartel. It would be interesting to study the failures of other cartels (such as the London Gold Pool) and see if any insight can be derived from those episodes.
 

free_6ix9ine

Junior Member
Registered Member
Conceptually speaking, China is trying to break a cartel. It would be interesting to study the failures of other cartels (such as the London Gold Pool) and see if any insight can be derived from those episodes.

I have a friend who is an investor in a privately held company which does software that is used in chip fabrication. Basically the company is hiring lawyers to identify what is considered US IP and what is not, and then divesting the non-US IP to a newly registered non-US entity, and then setting up a non-US research department in a foreign country, so in the future all new IP is not US. They are determined not to lose out on the biggest super growth cycle in chip equipment in the last 50 yrs.

They are hell bent on taking market share from the more established competitors.
 

Mcsweeney

Junior Member

Ironic how they film a video talking about anti-China propaganda in Western media while going to a Starbucks. I like the idea from one of the members here that the Chinese government should distribute leaflets to every Chinese household listing all the major American corporations and reminding them that if they choose to purchase products from these corporations, they are giving money to a country that is committed to destroying China.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Ironic how they film a video talking about anti-China propaganda in Western media while going to a Starbucks. I like the idea from one of the members here that the Chinese government should distribute leaflets to every Chinese household listing all the major American corporations and reminding them that if they choose to purchase products from these corporations, they are giving money to a country that is committed to destroying China.

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China will get dragged down by these people.
 
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