Germanium export continues to be down big time YoY.
copper production globally is shrinking YoY, China is up YoY, but the overall question of where copper is coming from will be increasingly louder.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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Germanium export continues to be down big time YoY.
copper production globally is shrinking YoY, China is up YoY, but the overall question of where copper is coming from will be increasingly louder.
i think property appreciation matching inflation while other asset classes beating inflation does lead to affordability as it takes away the incentive for speculators , affordability also depends on what kinds of homes are on the market , if someone wants a smaller house they should have the option to buy exactly that rather than a larger home because that is the only kind available , plus wage growth in china has beaten inflation for many years now and will continue to do so in future which will also contribute to affordability
also more than 20pc urban households own multiple homes in china per this link : "" , i would rather see they are able to sell these homes at reasonable prices that dont result in great losses for them and they reinvest that money into the equity mkts
Property increases that match general inflation will inevitably incentivise speculators, whilst also worsening affordability.
Stable prices won't result in losses. It's just break-even for investors as they sell at a "reasonable" price.
If property increases with inflation, it will inevitably retain or draw more money into property speculation, rather than into the stock market.
I don’t think things will change much until China starts feeling the real effects from a rapid developing ageing population. Most times only a crisis can force a lethargic bureaucracy from slumber . Else things just go slowly or get stuck with status quo .
Moreover , even if the government offered every incentives , it won’t have a drastic effect. I think only a change in mentality(where there is a positive marketing of having a large family, just like its done in Israel) about children can have a drastic effect of reversing this steep decline in birth rates, this goes a long way when people look at women who don’t have children/family as weird/frowned upon. That has an even bigger effect on those choosing to have kids as well apart from woe pressure/money .
It’s actually amazing and shocking how fast Chinas birth rate has fallen, especially since China is not yet a developed country actually. So it’s surprising to see the country facing this issue so early in her development age (baring the folly of one child policy), since it makes no sense for China to now have a lower birth rate than Japn(a country who has been hyper developed and conservative for over half a century now). Something definitely needs to be done .
The crisis isn't actually about "demographics", so much as it is about instability. The ideal population pyramid should be either slightly expanding at the bottom, or perfectly flat. This creates predictable cycles and avoids a structural mismatch between labor demand and labor supply. Of course, technology and advances will always create a structural mismatch, but a demographic pyramid that's inverting inwards hardly helps.
Structurally, what happened, happened. You can't really "fix" an imbalance once it occurred, so China should prepare itself for a transition towards a smaller population. Understandably, it's very difficult to predict and know the full effects of these changes, especially since they are very gradual in nature.
At the same time, it has to focus on creating a stable fertility outcome. Structurally and culturally, having kids has to make sense and become a desirable, and most importantly, attainable, part of being an adult. Individual perceptions, social expectations, and economic outcomes are all part of this. What we think of as "culture" is ultimately a reflection of these three things.
Personally, I think a large reason for why young adults avoid having children and prefer a DINK (Double Income, No Kids) lifestyle isn't just selfishness, though there is some of that too no doubt, but a rather poor childhood. Not in a literal sense, but think of the most successful Chinese kids. What was their time like growing up? Watching their parents work themselves to the ground providing a home, food, and education. Then harsh expectations of needing to cram and stady for many, many hours of the day instead of playing sports, enjoying a better social life, or wasting time playng video games. Insane competition and studying to get into the best schools. Slaving for hours before finally getting that dream job where you can finally relax a bit and enjoy life.
Now again, I am purely guessing here, but I would think, that many of these young professionals and even those who aren't necessarily young professionals but lower-income young adults, don't want to think about having kids and putting that much energy into being a Parent. Not only that, but being the parent that forces their child to go through 20 years of constant studying and sacrifice to ensure a better life.
Or worse, being a chill parent with the knowledge that they are setting up their children to achieve less. At what point do you get to enjoy life? If not in your mid 20s and 30s then when?
IMO, this is a brutal structure for a life that's not very fulfilling if you just go from one grinder into another. The party has to align the economics and show its people that there is a much easier path to... "abundance". Or perhaps that the way to the promised land is to have children.
But again, just my pure guess.
Structurally, what happened, happened. You can't really "fix" an imbalance once it occurred, so China should prepare itself for a transition towards a smaller population. Understandably, it's very difficult to predict and know the full effects of these changes, especially since they are very gradual in nature.
At the same time, it has to focus on creating a stable fertility outcome. Structurally and culturally, having kids has to make sense and become a desirable, and most importantly, attainable, part of being an adult. Individual perceptions, social expectations, and economic outcomes are all part of this. What we think of as "culture" is ultimately a reflection of these three things.
Personally, I think a large reason for why young adults avoid having children and prefer a DINK (Double Income, No Kids) lifestyle isn't just selfishness, though there is some of that too no doubt, but a rather poor childhood. Not in a literal sense, but think of the most successful Chinese kids. What was their time like growing up? Watching their parents work themselves to the ground providing a home, food, and education. Then harsh expectations of needing to cram and stady for many, many hours of the day instead of playing sports, enjoying a better social life, or wasting time playng video games. Insane competition and studying to get into the best schools. Slaving for hours before finally getting that dream job where you can finally relax a bit and enjoy life.
Now again, I am purely guessing here, but I would think, that many of these young professionals and even those who aren't necessarily young professionals but lower-income young adults, don't want to think about having kids and putting that much energy into being a Parent. Not only that, but being the parent that forces their child to go through 20 years of constant studying and sacrifice to ensure a better life.
Or worse, being a chill parent with the knowledge that they are setting up their children to achieve less. At what point do you get to enjoy life? If not in your mid 20s and 30s then when?
IMO, this is a brutal structure for a life that's not very fulfilling if you just go from one grinder into another. The party has to align the economics and show its people that there is a much easier path to... "abundance". Or perhaps that the way to the promised land is to have children.
But again, just my pure guess.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Chinese speed. We pick up technology faster than anyone. We industrialize faster than anyone. We pickup influence faster than anyone. We raced past these countries economically and technologically and we ingested the developed nation disease like a side-dish.
I think you are right on one point: China's birth rate will not rise until people see the consequences. Right now, the first generation that has prioritized self and career accomplishment have not yet grayed and died. When they do, when people see the poor state they are in, with all their riches and power offering no shield against the pain of dying alone to disappear forever leaving no legacy, we may find a turning point.
As most people here know, I chose surrogacy with my wife and he had 4 kids in 38.5 months. We are actually seeing some change in attitude, although I don't know how widespread this is. My wife is saying she sees a lot of Chinese couples in their 30's trying all kinds of crazy shit to get pregnant. This is a change from when she says she used to see so many people either brag about how comfortable the DINK life is or actually angry that any grandparents want them to have kids and swearing to never reproduce as if that means they win that fight. So for some people, maybe a rising number of people, the attitude is that they want to have kids, but they wanted to stabilize their careers and finances first. In a China where surrogacy is illegal, this is a dangerous game to play. The female body becomes too old to generate viable ovum and give birth even with help rather early. Late-30's is less than 50% success rate even with the best tech. Mid-30's was your last reliable chance and early 30's you would have breathing room but don't waste it.
So moving forward, there will be 2 ways to do this:
1. Prioritize family over career. The cultural change would be immense. Instead of making the best of yourself and then seeing if you can pass it on, have kids straight out of college or even in college when nothing is certain and see what kind of life you can make from there. This would probably hinder China's tech advance as more young people are pulled out from the extreme work culture that it really takes to haul ass in the tech world.
2. The CCP has to make surrogacy legal. Women should freeze their eggs right out of college, and I mean freeze dozens of them in anticipation of loss from failure, and then reanimate them when their careers are stable and hire a surrogate to bring them to life. An artificial womb is ideal but not nearly here yet.
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You want young families, you need affordable nests to rise their little ones.
They can’t do that, at least not within the country. It’s a slippery slope that would lead to very unpleasant consequences.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
So I've heard. It's up to the CCP to measure the benefits against the potential harm and regulatory processes. If they deem the demographic dangers enough, this will increase the birthrate for 30-38 year olds who put career first but still want a family. These people make great parents in how they teach their kids too. They're not broke people who don't have any means to educate a child and they're not the uber rich who often have strange, sometimes predatory world views with they pass on.
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werent some Chinese guys already availing suggoracy services but abroad?.. saw some in douyin..