Chinese Economics Thread

bd popeye

bd popeye

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A customer shops for golden jewelry at a store in Zaozhuang, east China's Shandong Province, April 10, 2026. China's consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, rose 1 percent year on year in March, official data showed Friday. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 1.1 percent year on year, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). On a month-on-month basis, CPI fell 0.7 percent in March, the data revealed.

Friday's data also showed that the producer price index, which measures costs for goods at the factory gate, edged up 0.5 percent year on year last month, the first increase following 41 straight months of declines, according to the NBS.
(Photo by Wang Longfei/Xinhua)

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People shop for digital products at a consumer electronics store in Guiyang, southwest China's Guizhou Province, April 10, 2026. (Photo by Yuan Fuhong/Xinhua)

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People purchase fresh vegetables and seafood at a farmer's wholesale market in Qiqihar, northeast China's Heilongjiang Province, April 10, 2026. (Photo by Song Yanjun/Xinhua)

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People purchase a new energy vehicle (NEV) at an automobile dealership in Wuhan, central China's Hubei Province, April 10, 2026. (Photo by Zhao Jun/Xinhua)

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A customer purchases cooking oil at a supermarket in Congjiang County, southwest China's Guizhou Province, April 10, 2026. (Photo by Luo Jinglai/Xinhua)

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People purchase fruits at a supermarket in Nantong, east China's Jiangsu Province, April 10, 2026. (Photo by Zhai Huiyong/Xinhua)

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People buy fresh vegetables at a supermarket in Pingyi County, east China's Shandong Province, April 10, 2026. (Photo by Wu Jiquan/Xinhua)
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tphuang

tphuang

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This is a very interesting article based on China's import behavior since Iran conflict started. You can see the major shifts in where China buys from

Total crude oil exports from the Middle East to China were 581 million barrels from January to May, which marked a 28% fall from the same months in 2025.
To make up for the shortfall from the likes of Iran and Saudi Arabia, China has stepped up imports from South America and Eastern Europe, with Brazil and Russia both registering strong year-over-year volumes to China so far in 2026.
That said, total crude oil imports by China through the first five months of 2026 are down roughly 10% from the same months in 2025, indicating China's enduring difficulties in replacing Middle Eastern supplies.
On the fuels front, China's combined imports of gasoline, naphtha, gasoil/diesel and jet fuel/kerosene are down by around 11% during January to May compared to that period in 2025, to around 51 million barrels.
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From January to May, China's fuel imports from the Middle East are down by 20% to around 19.2 million barrels, while imports from all other regions are down by around 4% on the year to around 31.6 million barrels.
China imported around 40% of its LNG and LPG supplies from Middle Eastern nations in 2025, so the closure of the outbound traffic from the region has also impacted China's gas markets.
From January through May, total China LNG and LPG imports from the Middle East dropped by 43% to just under 9 million metric tons from over 15 million tons during the same months last year.

Total gas shipments from all other regions have also shrunk so far this year, but by only 12%, revealing that Middle East volumes have fallen much more sharply than those from other suppliers.
In LNG, total exports from the Middle East to China during January to May are estimated around 6 million tons, which is around 2.5 million tons or around 30% less than during the same months in 2025.
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tphuang

tphuang

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more on this topic

China's March seaborne crude imports were steady at 10.5 million bpd year-on-year, while inventories rose by 34 million barrels. Middle East cargoes were loaded in January and ⁠February so March imports were not yet affected by Strait of Hormuz disruptions, said Emma Li, analyst at ship-tracking firm Vortexa.
Chinese refineries' capacity utilisation rate was 68.79% in March, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, and down 4.47 percentage points from February, according to Chinese consultancy Oilchem.
Major refiners and independent refiners both lowered operating rates during the month due to factors including crude supply risks, the firm added in a report.

Customs data also showed that exports of refined oil products, including diesel, gasoline, aviation fuel and marine fuel, dropped 12.2% to 4.6 million tons in March.
China ordered a
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on refined fuel exports last month that halted cargoes that had yet to clear customs as of March 11.
The export ban, which does not include jet fuel for aviation bunkering, is poised to
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⁠into April, though exemptions could be applied to small volumes bound for countries in the region that have requested help.
Major refineries raised gasoline and diesel yields in March, after export plans for gasoline and diesel were cut, and China's gasoline and diesel consumption remained relatively low, leaving ⁠supply ample and domestic inventories higher, Oilchem added.
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not too surprising here tbh. My sense is that they need to do more to discourage diesel and gasoline usage and encourage EV purchases. so this can be done in a way that doesn't hurt the chemical industry.
 
sunnymaxi

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China's exports of power generator units rose 49.66% YoY to 12.9 billion yuan ($1.89 billion) in the first two months of 2026, with high-capacity diesel generator sets used in data centers surging 131.81%. Chinese companies are stepping up research and development, accelerating product upgrades and rolling out higher-capacity generator sets designed to operate in more complex environments.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2044371908997902594
 
Wrought

Wrought

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Long piece on the global maritime footprint of ports, as well as the commericial and/or strategic implications thereof.

The U.S. has a long way to go if it wants to fight over every port China has financed: As we document in our new
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, Chinese agencies and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have bankrolled some 363 Chinese loan- and grant-financed projects worth $24 billion supporting 168 unique ports across 90 countries from 2000 to 2025. The year 2000 is our data-collection starting point, as this was the beginning of the implementation of the state-led “Go Out” initiative, which encouraged Chinese agencies and SOEs to focus loans, grants, and investments in foreign countries rather than at home. Our underlying data presents an as-close-to-real-time picture of Beijing’s global port footprint as there is, including new and recent ports that have been proposed but are as yet unfunded. For every high-profile or contentious case like a Piraeus, there is a Chinese-financed, massive port that has been built in a Tema (Ghana), a Kribi (Cameroon), or the new loan we uncovered for the port of Muara, in Brunei.
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