Chinese Economics Thread

[Bellum_Romanum]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2000061282482090200

China is only US$770 billion behind the import level of the world's largest importer: the USA.

The difference was US$1 trillion before. China will eventually become the world's largest importer in the future, surpassing the USA, and will be the world's largest exporter and importer.

Well, if you combine HKs import, the total import value would be only short of $70B to equal that of the U.S. import would it not?

 

[Gloire_bb]

Conversely there needs to be relative disincentives to staying single. Not saying you must punish people for not getting married, but rewarding family formation is effectively the same thing.

A devoted legist would disagree!
(joke ofc, but precedent for state family management stands firmly in Chinese history from early on)

 

[PopularScience]

Well, if you combine HKs import, the total import value would be only short of $70B to equal that of the U.S. import would it not?

Does it count the import from mainland?

 

[antiterror13]

Well, if you combine HKs import, the total import value would be only short of $70B to equal that of the U.S. import would it not?

Hong Kong’s domestic market is tiny (7.5 million people), but its re‑exports are enormous. In 2023, Hong Kong re‑exported HK$2,661B worth of goods. Imports were HK$2,144B in 2024.

Most goods that “enter” Hong Kong don’t stay — they are immediately shipped onward to: Mainland China. Southeast Asia, The US, Europe. Hong Kong is basically a giant logistics hub.

Hong Kong’s economy is built on trade, not manufacturing. Hong Kong is a gateway for Mainland China

 

[tphuang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2001649846260814062

Shandong Lanzhou found its largest underwater gold mine project to date. This is quite interesting if they have actually developed large scale underwater mining. Creates a lot of new opportunities.

 

[tphuang]

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This is rather interesting for Hainan Free Trade Port now that it has been expanded to island wide. I'm curious how this will work out for the local development. I see a lot of PR on this recently.

 

[tphuang]

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I find this Hainan Free Trade Port rationale rather interesting. Looks like it is trying to replace Singapore in ASEAN related trading

再回过来说海南洋浦港

1、取代了（至少是部分取代）新加坡的服务区的作用，中国、日本、韩国、朝鲜、乃至俄罗斯（东亚部分）蒙古的货物运输的商船，都不需要停靠新加坡来进行加油补给等操作了，在海南就做掉了。

2、取代了新加坡的货物集散的作用，以后东亚的货物尤其是中日韩朝俄蒙的货物都可以先在洋浦港卸货，再装上大船运往欧洲了。同样的欧洲的货物也可以运到海南，再卸货，分发到各地。

3、海南由于土地面积大，不像新加坡寸土寸金，海南可以建设庞大的加工中心，越南的石油天然气可以在海南加工后出口到欧洲非洲美洲，又或者是菲律宾，印尼的棕榈油也可以在海南加工后出口到全世界，这里加工门类更多、技术更好、价格更低。

4；随着海南取代了新加坡的上述功能，资金也就在海南周转，不再从新加坡周转了，跨国企业也就在海南建立办事处和分公司了。银行也就在海南结汇和建立分行了。

论：

1、你在家门口开服务区，是要被警察抓的，对吧？服务区不是你想开就能开的，以前东亚的服务区只能新加坡开，别的国家敢开服务区的话，老美就会开着军舰让你知道什么能干什么不能干。

这是大前提，由于中国军事力量的强大，所以我们敢自己开服务区，这也是南海这么多年斗争的成果之一。

2、服务区一旦开起来，中国这边的货物肯定会走海南，这是国家任务，没人敢和政府对着干，所以光是中国的货物就能让新加坡减少70%的集散总量，这部分货物走海南就能让洋浦港超过新加坡的货物集散量。

3、海南的加工贸易服务能力会远超新加坡，要知道很多小国家他即使有能力自己加工，但是由于本国的加工量太少，他建工厂做加工是亏本的，除非他能把其他国家的加工业务也接过去，新加坡就是因为把东亚这一圈的加工都接过去了，他才能盈利，但是随着海南承接加工业务，中国的大量加工业务就不会从新加坡走了，新加坡的加工业务会很快的倒闭的，因为一旦加工的业务量低于某个阈值，新加坡做加工就是亏本了。

4、一旦集散和加工的量没了，资本也就不走新加坡了，因为不在你这里结算，资本来你这里干嘛？？同样的，跨国企业、银行、贸易也都会离开新加坡。

所以海南和新加坡是你死我活的关系，新加坡的一切的基础都是贸易，没有贸易他就什么都没有了。其他的什么金融中心、物流中心、跨国企业办事中心之类的，都是皮之不存 毛将焉附。

Well, I didn't know 70% of cargo coming in and out of Singapore to/from China. So, if this all just congregate in Hainan, then it would be quite interesting.

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Following the launch of the special customs operations, the flow of factors of production between Hainan and overseas markets will become ever more convenient and efficient. Backed by the vast Chinese market, the Hainan FTP is well-positioned to become a key convergence point of multinational supply chains, offering solid institutional support for enterprises that are willing to explore and seize development opportunities in China. Meanwhile, the Hainan FTP provides a "calm harbor" for advancing international economic and trade cooperation amid the impact of rising trade protectionism.

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Port, a key hub in the free trade port, is stepping up efforts to upgrade through berth expansion and route densification, to establish itself as an international shipping hub serving western

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and connecting with

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. Since 2020, Yangpu Port has added a cumulative total of 10 berths, increasing its container throughput capacity from 1.25 million TEUs to 4.2 million TEUs, and upgrading its largest container terminal from a 50,000-ton class to a 200,000-ton class.

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Another article on this

The first show to drop is Siemens

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Siemens Energy became the first foreign-invested enterprise to register, receiving its business license at the Yangpu administrative service center in Danzhou. The company simultaneously broke ground on a new gas turbine assembly base and service center, a project it calls its first of its kind in China. Siemens Energy began its partnership with Yangpu power plant in 1993.

Joern Schmuecker, senior vice-president, Gas Services Central of Siemens Energy, said: "Establishing a gas turbine assembly base and service center in Hainan aligns perfectly with the Free Trade Port's vision of becoming a new high ground for openness and international cooperation. Together with our partners, we will drive collaborative innovation across the industry value chain, continuously enhance equipment delivery and service capabilities, and build an industrial ecosystem that contributes to energy resilience in China and across the world."

"We've seen very fast that we will receive a lot of support," said Lars Voelker, general manager of Siemens Energy (Hainan) Co Ltd, highlighting the efficient logistics and reduced administrative effort enabled by the FTP. He also highlighted the operational benefits. "With the free trade port option, we have the chance to optimize our logistic processes and to reduce administration effort and make everything faster."

on how goods into Hainan being tariff free link up to rest of China

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Hainan, a province, completed a milestone by launching fully independent Customs operations islandwide on Dec 18. This allows 74 per cent of goods going into Hainan to be tariff-free, up from 21 per cent previously, lowering costs for firms doing business there.

The idea is for Hainan to trade freely with the rest of the world, with tariff-free goods being circulated freely within the island, while imported goods going from the island to the rest of the country will be taxed as usual.

Hainan is already the world’s largest free trade port in terms of geographical area, at 35,400 sq km.
But it aims to eventually rival Hong Kong and Singapore as a globally influential free trade port, focusing on duty-free shopping, offshore finance, high-tech industries, modern services and tourism.

So the key here is if they can do the 30% value add, then it can go into rest of China tariff free.

A key policy, put in place in 2021, is an import tariff waiver given to goods sold from Hainan to the rest of mainland China if they gain over 30 per cent added value in Hainan. This is to encourageforeign manufacturers – including those in the biopharmaceutical, high-end equipment and electronics industries – to use Hainan as a gateway to the Chinese market by doing the final processing of their products on the island.

Last year, it had already signed agreement with Datang, Shenergy & CHN Energy to develop hydrogen in Hainan in terms of production of green fuel and refueling infrastructure.

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