Chinese Economics Thread

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China says last year’s GDP growth was worth more than Australia’s whole economy
  • Beijing plays down concerns about a slowdown by highlighting the size and scale of its growth last year
  • Per capita GDP close to US$10,000 benchmark after 6.6 growth rate last year
Updated: Sunday, 3 Mar, 2019 3:35pm
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China’s added GDP last year exceeded the value of Australia’s total output, the country’s statistics agency said as it sought to highlight the country’s economic resilience.

In 2018, China’s economic growth rate slowed to the lowest level in 28 years – a fact that has fanned concerns about the country’s economic outlook.

In response Beijing is trying to direct attention to the absolute value of its growth and highlight the country’s ongoing role as the engine of the world economy.

Last year’s growth figure was still a healthy 6.6 per cent – well above those of the G7 economies – and China accounted for around 30 per cent of the worldwide increase in gross domestic product.

According to data compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics, the value of China’s economy, the second biggest in the world, reached US$13.6 trillion last year.

“China remains a source of power for the global economy,” Sheng Laiyun, a deputy head of the agency, wrote in an official “explanation” of China’s economic data last week.

“China’s additional economic output was worth US$1.4 trillion [last year], which is equivalent to the total economic size of Australia in 2017.”

Australia’s total output was US$1.32 trillion in 2017, according to the World Bank, which has yet to publish data for last year.

Last year China’s per capita income also reached 64,644 yuan, close to the benchmark figure of US$10,000, the official data showed. However, the per capita figure for Australia is more than five times bigger than that of China.

China also said its economic growth in 2018 was mainly driven by domestic consumption, which contributed 76.2 per cent of growth, while capital formation, or investment, contributed 32.4 per cent.

Net exports dragged down growth by 8.6 per cent.

China’s statistics bureau is playing a key role in Beijing’s campaign to rebut “negative” interpretations of its economic performance.

The government has been forced on the defensive in recent years as China has increasingly been seen as a source of economic risk rather than the poster child for development – concerns amplified by the ongoing trade war with the US.

Scepticism about the accuracy of China’s official data also remains a concern.

There is widespread suspicion that growth figures have been inflated for years despite the efforts of the national bureau to improve the accuracy of its statistics.

In video footage that was leaked last year, Xiang Songzuo, a Chinese economist, told an event at Renmin University that two “internal” reports suggested that the country’s actual growth rate could be just 1.67 per cent – or may even have gone into recession.

Calculation of China’s GDP in US dollar terms is based on the official exchange rate, which is heavily influenced by Beijing under a managed floating exchange rate system and a closed capital account system.
 
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13:36, 04-Mar-2019
New Foreign Investment Law draft to be voted on Mar. 15
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China's top legislature will vote on its draft Foreign Investment Law on March 15, Zhang Yesui, spokesman for the second plenary session of the 13th National People's Congress (NPC) said Monday in a press conference in Beijing.

"This is a fundamental change in our foreign investment management system, which will improve the openness, transparency and predictability of the investment environment, and provide more effective legal protection for comprehensive opening up," Zhang said.

The Foreign Investment Law draft clearly stipulates that China's foreign investment shall be subject to the pre-entry national treatment plus negative list management system, and the case-by-case approval management mode shall be abolished, according to Zhang.

The negative list will clarify the areas for prohibiting and restricting foreign investors' investment. China's domestic and foreign investment will enjoy the same treatment in areas outside the negative list which will fully open, Zhang explained.

Meanwhile, the draft responds directly to common concerns of foreign investors and makes clear protection provisions for issues such as expropriation and compensation, intellectual property protection, and technology transfer, Zhang added.

As China continues to open up, foreign investors are holding greater expectations for the burgeoning Chinese market. Now the newly proposed law on foreign investment seeks to strengthen the confidence of foreign investors.
 
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Commentary: Sprinting toward a moderately prosperous society
Xinhua| 2019-03-04 20:36:43
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The good news at the start of 2019 is that the risk of an outright global recession is low. The bad news is that we are heading into a year of global deceleration. In some regions, growth will fall below potential.

To be sure, in 2019, China will not be immune to external uncertainties.

But that should not, and will not, keep China from sprinting toward its first centenary goal, completing the building of a moderately prosperous society, or Xiaokang, in all respects by the time the Communist Party of China celebrates its 100th anniversary.

The People's Republic of China will also be celebrating its 70th anniversary this year.

Held at a critical moment in the nation's development, it is particularly important for this year's "two sessions" to build consensus and pool wisdom of the whole nation.

When former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping used the term of building a "xiaokang society" in 1979 as the goal of China's modernization, he was thinking of a China where all citizens live a comfortable life. No one lives in absolute poverty.

After four decades of reform and opening-up, China is now very near to this goal, as it has never been.

The country's gross economic output exceeded 90 trillion yuan (13.6 trillion U.S. dollars) for the first time in history, accounting for 16.2 percent of the global economic output.

Its GDP growth rate slowed to 6.6 percent last year, after years of double-digital growth. However, the economy's increased amount, about 1.4 trillion U.S. dollars, remained significant, which was roughly equal to the GDP of Australia.

Notable changes have taken place in China's economic structure. Consumer spending contributes more than 70 percent of the GDP. Less dependence on investment and exports has made its economic growth more healthy and sustainable.

More than 13 million jobs were created each year, for six years in a row. Each percentage point of growth of the current GDP brings 2 million jobs for the Chinese people.

There is no better statistic to test China's economic vitality than the fact that about 18,600 market entities emerge every day in China. Businesses are confident they can make money.

Last but not least, more than 13 million people were lifted out of poverty in 2018. The poverty rate has declined to 1.7 percent by the end of last year.

The progress made last year was remarkable, considering the complex situation at home and aborad.

The journey ahead will not be easy, but there are plenty of reasons to remain optimistic.

Observers will be watching for the government's policy priorities at the two sessions. Much will be revealed when Premier Li Keqiang delivers the government work report at the annual session of the National People's Congress (NPC) that opens Tuesday. The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) National Committee began its annual session Sunday.

A new growth target will be unveiled. Further moves will also come to light such as supply-side reforms, support of private enterprise, rural revitalization, and further opening-up of the economy.

China has shifted its focus from growth rate to structural change, and most observers have noticed this change.

While the global economic outlook remains uncertain, China will inject certainty with slower growth but greater resilience.

With confidence, China is sprinting toward a moderately well-off society, and more encouraging changes are in sight.
 
here comes the CNN story
China predicts weaker economic growth and warns of 'hard struggle' ahead
Updated 11:15 PM ET, Mon March 4, 2019
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A ceasefire in the trade war is unlikely to stop China's economy from slowing further this year.
The Chinese government on Tuesday predicted economic growth of between 6% and 6.5% in 2019. That would represent a decline from last year's 6.6% rate of expansion, which was already
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.
"There has been a more complex and severe environment facing our country's development this year," Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said in a speech. "There are greater expected and unexpected risks and challenges, and we have to make full preparations for a hard struggle."
Li announced the growth target, which is in line with most economists' forecasts, at the start of this week's annual meeting of the National People's Congress, China's rubber-stamp parliament.
Chinese growth has lost momentum following government efforts to crack down on risky lending, which starved many companies of the funds they needed to expand. The world's second largest economy has also started feeling the effects of the
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with the United States, which has resulted in new tariffs on about $250 billion of Chinese exports.
Trade tensions now appear to be cooling off. US President Donald Trump said last week that the two sides are "very, very close" to a deal and that he plans to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping for a "signing summit."
The Wall Street Journal
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Sunday that the meeting could happen around March 27 and that
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could involve the lowering of China's tariffs on a range of US goods if the Trump administration removes some or all of the new tariffs it imposed on Chinese exports last year.
Global slowdown looming
That would be a clear positive for the Chinese economy, but it's not expected to kick-start its growth engine.
Global economic growth is expected to slow this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. And China, the world's biggest exporter, is expected to suffer from slumping demand.
"The weakness in the global economy that we anticipate over 2019-20 is due primarily to country-specific factors that we believe will cause each of the world's major economic regions to slow," Neil Shearing, chief economist at research firm Capital Economics, said in a note to clients Monday. "So while a deal between the US and China on trade would clearly be good news, we won't be rushing to change our forecasts."
Beijing has in recent months announced a slew of measures worth hundreds of billions of dollars that are designed to
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. They include tax cuts for small businesses, lower import tariffs, higher infrastructure spending and looser monetary policy.
But many of them could take months to have a real impact on the economy.
There will be a "time lag for the economic stimulus measures to take effect," said Tai Hui, Asia-Pacific chief market strategist at investment firm JPMorgan Asset Management. Analysts predict the slowdown is unlikely to bottom out until the middle of this year.
Recent efforts to lift the economy have also prompted concerns they could worsen China's
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, which is what happened in the government's previous stimulus binges. The total amount of
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in the Chinese financial system is now several times the size of the entire economy, according to the Bank of International Settlements.
"They need to strike a balance between boosting economic activity and not restart another debt-fueled boom," Hui said.
 
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China to lower the current VAT rate from 16% to 13% for manufacturing and from 10% to 9% for the transportation and construction industries, reducing enterprises' tax burdens and social insurance contributions by nearly 2 trillion yuan (about $298 billion): government work report

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Commentary: Time to discard growth rate fetish for China's economy
Xinhua| 2019-03-05 12:00:26
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For many years, growth figure has been the most buzzed-about subject regarding the Chinese economy.

Probably because of the "miracle" the Asian giant made with an average gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 9.5 percent in the past 40 years, far exceeding the 2.9-percent global economic growth in the same period.

However, one should not make a fetish of the growth rate. Also, economic slowdown is not necessarily a siren, not to mention a drag on the global growth.

China sets the 2019 GDP growth target at 6-6.5 percent, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said in his government work report on Tuesday at the opening of the second session of the 13th National People's Congress (NPC), China's top legislative body.

Last year, China's economy grew 6.6 percent, above the official target but lower than the 6.8-percent growth registered in 2017.

Some feared the world's second largest economy might experience a "hard landing," but they just cannot see the woods for the trees about the health of the Chinese economy.

Though slowing down, China's economy still grew at a medium-high rate, expanding to over 90 trillion yuan (13.3 trillion U.S. dollars) in 2018, an impressive accomplishment amid a subdued global economic outlook.

A key reason for the slowdown is that the Chinese government has chosen to shift its growth model from an investment-and-export-driven one toward a more sustainable style that draws strength from consumption, services and innovation.

It is a natural result of self-adjustment, and a proactive choice to create a robust, healthy and sustainable economy that benefits both the country and its people.

The shift has already delivered some tangible results with a steady growth of new economic drivers. Last year the tertiary industry accounted for 52.2 percent of China's GDP and consumer spending contributed 76.2 percent to economic growth, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics.

Continuing structural reforms for long-term development, China also implemented counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policies to cope with the downward pressure in the short term.

The People's Bank of China, China's central bank, cut reserve requirement ratios four times in 2018, and announced on Jan. 4 a further reduction of the ratio by 100 base points to widen financial channels for enterprises. Policies including cutting tax rate for the private sector and reducing business red tapes will also boost investment and foster a more favorable environment for investors.

Meanwhile, China has also maintained the prudent monetary policy of keeping proper macro-regulation to strive for a balance among multiple policy targets.

The government has in mind the need to sustain economic momentum rather than resorting to massive economic stimulus, calling for further stabilizing areas including employment, the financial market, foreign trade, foreign investment, domestic investment and expectations.

But China's economy is not free of challenges.

In his Tuesday work report, Li noted that the Chinese economy still faces such problems as a slowing down consumption growth, financial difficulties for micro and small enterprises and the short board in some key technologies. Yet Li also expressed his unshakable confidence to handle these problems.

That kind of confidence can find its roots in China's systemic ability to adjust its economic policies and to manage financial risks, as well as in its stable economic fundamentals and expectations.

Now that China has set its new target for growth with renewed pledge to push ahead reforms and opening-up, a high-quality Chinese economy is guaranteed.
 
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Xinhua Headlines: China to unleash huge growth potential with new economic drivers
Xinhua| 2019-03-06 13:57:17
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Downward pressure on the Chinese economy has worried global investors, but national lawmakers and political advisors attending the ongoing annual "two sessions" are optimistic about the economic outlook.

They have good reason to. While the GDP target of 6-6.5 percent for 2019 moderated from the 6.6-percent growth the country achieved last year, a series of new growth drivers have emerged that are expected to underpin the country's long-term prosperity.

"China is still in an important period of strategic opportunity for development and has ample resilience, enormous potential and great creativity to unleash," says a government work report delivered by Premier Li Keqiang Tuesday at the opening of the second session of the 13th National People's Congress (NPC), the national legislature.

CONSUMPTION POTENTIAL

During a panel discussion at the second session of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), Liu Shaoyong, chairman of the China Eastern Airlines, described what he saw as "tremendous opportunities" for China's civil aviation and tourism industries.

"It's estimated that there are still a billion Chinese that have never boarded an airplane," the political advisor said, indicating the huge market potential for airliners and the tourism sector.

While consumption already contributed some 76 percent to the country's economic growth last year, the country's gigantic consumer market is still largely untapped, analysts said.

"As China develops its service industry, the income of grassroots workers such as housekeepers and delivery persons will rise. If we could allow them residency status in the cities, they can buy houses and spend money," said Li Daokui, an economist with Tsinghua University, also a member of the CPPCC National Committee.

China will use multiple avenues to increase the supply of quality products and services and act faster to resolve problems and difficulties blocking the entry of private investment, according to the government work report.

The country will take significant steps to develop elderly care, especially community elderly care services, as the number of people in China aged 60 and above has reached 250 million, the report says.

As many of the goods and services that Chinese consume will be imported, China's rising consumer strength will also be a crucial force for sustainable development of the world economy, said Liu Shijin, vice chairman of the China Development Research Foundation and a CPPCC National Committee member.

GREEN TRANSITION

For Wu Gang, chairman of Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology, China's largest wind turbine manufacturer by new installed capacity last year, going green does not only mean lower costs but also more deals with international clients.

"If you talk to our clients, you will find they are not only interested in the quality of the products but also how we manufacture these products," Wu, a member of the CPPCC National Committee, told Xinhua on the sidelines of the two sessions.

The company has remained one of the top three global wind turbine manufacturers for six straight years with the help of its eco-friendly equipment, Wu said.

"The green development of Chinese firms has shown that economic growth and environmental protection could go hand in hand," Wu said.

In the government work report, the country vowed to make big advances in green development in 2019 and pursue both high-quality development and environmental protection.

"There has been this misconception that green development is a constraint to economic growth. In fact, environmental protection itself can be a very promising field for investment," said Li Daokui.

"To treat the waters, you should not simply shut down the steel factories. Instead, you should invest in those that are more effective and eco-friendly," he said.

Li Lijian, chairman of Anyang Iron and Steel Group, said the company invested more than 3 billion yuan (about 448 million U.S. dollars) into pollution treatment facilities in 2017, which helped the company register record high-profits last year.

"Green transition is a big challenge for the firm, but it is also a great opportunity," Li said.

DIGITAL BOOM

At the Kuntai Hotel in the northeastern Wangjing area of Beijing, where some of the political advisors are staying during the two sessions, an advertisement for housing rentals read: "Come and become the neighbor of the people who influence the world."

The area is surrounded by office buildings of China's high-tech giants such as Alibaba and Meituan and is home to hundreds of Internet startups hoping to cash in on the country's digital economy boom.

China's digital economy is expected to exceed 6 trillion U.S. dollars by 2020, according to a report published by CCID Consulting.

Despite the downward pressure on the economy, China saw more than 18,000 new businesses on a daily basis last year, many of which are Internet startups.

"New growth drivers are now profoundly changing our mode of production and way of life, creating new strengths for China's development," says the government work report.

According to Pony Ma, chairman and CEO of Tencent, the development of Internet industry will also foster the growth of traditional sectors and help the high-quality growth of the real economy.

"Internet firms are not competing with traditional companies. Rather, they are helping the industries in the real economy become champions on their own track," said Ma, an NPC deputy.

The country will further expand the digital economy and develop next-generation information infrastructure, according to the government work report.

Such a move will guide private investment into information infrastructure, which will help usher in a new wave of tech innovation, supporting China's economic growth, said Liu Gang, director of Binhai Development Institute of Nankai University.
 
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China's deficit-to-GDP ratio target -- set at 2.8% this year, up by 0.2 percentage points from 2018 -- is proactive and realistic, in line with economic and social development needs and sustainable fiscal development, China's finance minister said Thursday.
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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
3000 KM GAS PIPELINE FROM RUSSIA TO CHINA 99% COMPLETE


China need to double down on building gas line from Russia The first one is almost complete predicted to be operational by year end
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IMAGE: Gazprom

Construction of its gas pipeline from Russia to China is 99% finished, Russian energy giant Gazprom has announced. According to reports, the company is planning to start delivering gas to China via the Power of Siberia line as early as December 2019.

Gazprom’s Investor Day presentation in Singapore revealed that in 2019 the company is planning to invest about $2.24 billion into the project. The pipeline is set to deliver 38 billion cubic meters of Russian natural gas to China annually.

Gazprom and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) reached a 30-year agreement for gas supplies via the Power of Siberia gas pipeline in 2014. In September 2018, Gazprom reported that the Russian part of the pipeline, running from Yakutia gas production centers to China’s border, was almost complete. The construction of pipeline on Chinese territory is also almost completed.
 
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