Chinese Economics Thread

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Cars cars cars haha. It's been explained to you in several ways already.
1. Transition of conventional engine to EV engine leaves buyers hesitant on buying conventional cars with a phase-out in progress.
2. Transition from manufacturer of massive amounts of low end goods to one with high value chain but less mass as well as service sector increase means reduced shipping need.
3. Superior public transportation including the relegation of non-high speed trans for shipping reduces vehicular need, particularly in the city.
4. Government controls clamp down on traffic congestion deliberately making car ownership a hassle to discourage new purchases.
5. The conclusion cannot possibly be a decrease in purchasing power because more expensive model sales rise while cheaper models fall and overall consumer spending rose 9% this year, which is evidence in itself that purchasing power has increased. You cannot counter the overall trend of increase with 1 data point of decrease.
Occam's razor.

If I were you, I would never talk about debt again because right now, I still don't know if you actually know what that is. There was no inflection at all in 2016; it just kept rising smoothly. China's consumer debt rises as a percentage of national GDP, indicating an increasing share of citizen consumption as a part of the national economy. China's per capita GDP, wages and dispensable income also rose indicating healthy growth bolstering the purchasing power of private citizens. Right now, debt is clearly at much lower levels than seen in the West, let's say the USA, so it can very well grow, and needs to grow to increase consumption. (US debt grew and grew until it was about 80% then it was controlled.) You cannot have China become a big consumer with debt vs GDP levels that are very low; no economy in the world has this combination. These trends show China transitioning into a more consumer-based economy with private citizens controlling more money and spending more money.
Interesting, I checked the historical USA consumer debt to GDP, and it l reached the current Chinese level around 1985.

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Equation

Lieutenant General
Occam's razor.


Interesting, I checked the historical USA consumer debt to GDP, and it l reached the current Chinese level around 1985.

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You have a very strong opinion for someone who self-admits that he has no idea what will happen and when it will happen! Haha But if you have no idea what will happen, how do you know something needs to change? Maybe what will happen is going perfectly according to trajectory. Or what does change even mean? Everybody, every country, every economy is undergoing continuous change every day. China's economy is certainly not standing still.

Nevertheless, this is improvement in honesty for you. Before, you claimed despite counter evidence that China will be trapped in the middle income trap, now you admit you have no idea. No answer is better than the wrong answer, bravo!

It seems that among many things, you don't understand Occam's razor either. It doesn't say that the simplest explanation is always true regardless of proof. The theory only applies to when neither explanation can be ruled out by evidence. When you can rule out the simplest explanation by evidence, it is no longer in the equation and Occam's razor no longer applies to that explanation. The theory that Chinese buying power is diminished resulting in reduced conventional car purchases is directly disqualified by the evidence of sustained rise in GDP per capita, wages, dispensable income, and overall consumption, in unison.

Besides, Occam's razor is wrong as much as it's right, depending on the subject. If you applied it to technology sales, you would guess that every time iphone sales dropped, it's because people got poorer and could no longer afford them when the real answer is the more complicated explanation that people are holding off purchases in anticipation for a new release. Occam's razer is ancient philosophy; how desperate to try to prove modern economics with it!

OK, US debt level was similar to Chinese debt level today. So what? That does nothing to rebut what I wrote. It's a random fact.
 
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The Arctic ice sheet collapse has better scientific data, better simulation and way easier than the economy of China.

However no one can tell when will be the first ice free arctic summer.

This is like the EU crisis since 2010
It lasts way longer than I expected, I thought that it will collapse at the beginning of 10s.
It is like the supercooled water, that remain liquid without anything that start the crystallisation.

I have no clue when will happen, what will happen, all that is clear something needs to happen and change.
LOL! thought you'd ignore my 'request for information' Yesterday at 5:40 PM
... and so on and so forth, I've now looked at posts in the last two pages here;

Anlsvrthng
what is it you're saying, in one sentence please

for example "China_faces_
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_in_x_years_from_now"

and please put it in a way that anyone can verify in the future if you were right or just babbling LOL
so I press Like
 

hkbc

Junior Member
You have a very strong opinion for someone who self-admits that he has no idea what will happen and when it will happen! Haha But if you have no idea what will happen, how do you know something needs to change? Maybe what will happen is going perfectly according to trajectory. Or what does change even mean? Everybody, every country, every economy is undergoing continuous change every day. China's economy is certainly not standing still.

Nevertheless, this is improvement in honesty for you. Before, you claimed despite counter evidence that China will be trapped in the middle income trap, now you admit you have no idea. No answer is better than the wrong answer, bravo!

It seems that among many things, you don't understand Occam's razor either. It doesn't say that the simplest explanation is always true regardless of proof. The theory only applies to when neither explanation can be ruled out by evidence. When you can rule out the simplest explanation by evidence, it is no longer in the equation and Occam's razor no longer applies to that explanation. The theory that Chinese buying power is diminished resulting in reduced conventional car purchases is directly disqualified by the evidence of sustained rise in GDP per capita, wages, dispensable income, and overall consumption, in unison.

Besides, Occam's razor is wrong as much as it's right, depending on the subject. If you applied it to technology sales, you would guess that every time iphone sales dropped, it's because people got poorer and could no longer afford them when the real answer is the more complicated explanation that people are holding off purchases in anticipation for a new release. Occam's razer is ancient philosophy; how desperate to try to prove modern economics with it!

OK, US debt level was similar to Chinese debt level today. So what? That does nothing to rebut what I wrote. It's a random fact.

Think we can stop now, if the topic's gone back to debt (or for that matter almost anything), he who shall not be named doesn't know what it is!

We have countless pages that are filled with variations of same simpleton's logic, something along the lines of

rain comes from clouds -> there is a cloud in the sky -> a storm MUST be coming

Throws it out there, demanding everyone to prove rain doesn't come from clouds and if you can't he must be right the storm is happening......

It's a fools errand!
 
now I read
China Focus: Innovation boosts development of China's private medical companies
Xinhua| 2018-12-17 16:06:04
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As the fifth China Grand Award for Industry was announced on Dec. 9, Conbercept, an ophthalmic injection, was awarded as one of the country's 11 top industrial projects of the year.

Honored by one of China's top awards in industry together with Fuxing bullet trains and the Fengyun meteorological satellites, the product is manufactured by Chengdu Kanghong Pharmaceutical Group, a private medical company based in the southwest province of Sichuan.

According to Kanghong President Hao Xiaofeng, innovation has always been a primary focus of the company, which produces ophthalmic as well as central nervous and digestive system drugs, since it was set up in 1996.

"Though we don't produce a wide range of drugs, each of our products came to the market with innovation and can fill the voids," he said.

Conbercept is used for aged-related macular degeneration (AMD) treatment. As of 2016, over 4 million old people in China suffered from the disease, which may result in blurred or no vision.

It is also the first Chinese innovator biotech drug with a unique and globally recognized International Nonproprietary Name given by the World Health Organization.

More private medical companies are rising as the industry is transforming from the "Made in China" model to "Created in China," with more innovator drugs and less generic drugs, said Meng Dongping, vice president of China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export Medicines & Health Products (CCCMHPIE).

"These private companies are playing a leading role in innovation and the internationalization of China's medical industry," she said.

RISING INNOVATION

"Being responsive to the market and open-minded, with sufficient funds and competitive products, private medical companies have become leading players in many market segments," Meng said.

According to the CCCMHPIE, only 9.6 percent of China's export companies in medical industry were private companies in 2001, while the figure rose to 56.5 percent in 2017. Amid rising prosperity, ambitious private companies have also eyed higher-quality development and taken innovation as a key measure.

Yin Jinqun, vice president of Kanghong, said the company "started from zero" to develop biotech drugs, which were priced much higher than chemical drugs yet harder to develop. "We put over 1 billion yuan (about 144.8 million U.S. dollars) in developing Conbercept, though our sales were less than 1 billion yuan when the project started in 2005."

Greater input in research and development brought in more promising results. In June, Ganovo, a new drug developed by a Zhejiang-based private company for hepatitis C treatment, was licensed by the National Medical Products Administration. It is the first direct acting antiviral developed by a Chinese company.

The developer Ascletis is also working on another new drug, which in combination with Ganovo can serve as China's first all-oral, interferon-free hepatitis C virus therapy.

"The licensing of Ganovo represented the developing innovation capacity of China's medical companies and is also a great breakthrough in prevention and control of serious diseases," said Sang Guowei, an expert in clinical pharmacy from the Chinese Academy of Engineering.

FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT

In Zhejiang, the eastern province where Ascletis is based, provincial capital Hangzhou issued a guideline on improving the innovative development of the city's biotech industry in May, announcing biopharmacy as a development priority and future government support for new drug development.

The pharmaceutical industry was the second largest contributor to Hangzhou's economic growth among all industries in 2017.

In 2017, more than 300,000 biotech companies were newly set up in China, and nearly 20 billion yuan of investment was made in the biotech industry in the first three months of 2018. Opportunities are found in both the market and the favorable environment provided by the government.

In October last year, China's central authorities also issued a guideline to ease and speed up approval of drugs and medical devices as part of efforts to deepen the country's healthcare reform.

"It can greatly stimulate innovation and enhance the innovation in the medical industry in general," Meng said.

CHINESE SOLUTION

Kanghong had more than 150 licensed invention patents as of the beginning of this year and is now working on 15 national research programs. Yin, the vice president, said the company's efforts in innovation not only meant better profitability, but also the potential to provide patients their own solutions.

Before 2014 when Conbercept began to be sold in China, the patient choice for AMD treatment was Lucentis, an ophthalmic injection developed by European pharmaceutical giant Novartis. While Lucentis used to be priced at about 10,000 yuan, the price fell to about 7,000 yuan after Conbercept entered the market and is now less than 6,000 yuan.

"Without Conbercept, the competitor, there would be no need for the price drop of Lucentis, from which the Chinese patients benefited most," Yin said.

"China has companies with outstanding performance and has provided Chinese solutions in many fields in the world, but not in the field of medicine," he said. "We hope to work out with our own Chinese solutions in medication in the foreseeable future, and we are proud of our endeavor to reach this goal."
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
You have a very strong opinion for someone who self-admits that he has no idea what will happen and when it will happen! Haha But if you have no idea what will happen, how do you know something needs to change? Maybe what will happen is going perfectly according to trajectory. Or what does change even mean? Everybody, every country, every economy is undergoing continuous change every day. China's economy is certainly not standing still.
....
Besides, Occam's razor is wrong as much as it's right, depending on the subject. If you applied it to technology sales, you would guess that every time iphone sales dropped, it's because people got poorer and could no longer afford them when the real answer is the more complicated explanation that people are holding off purchases in anticipation for a new release. Occam's razer is ancient philosophy; how desperate to try to prove modern economics with it!

OK, US debt level was similar to Chinese debt level today. So what? That does nothing to rebut what I wrote. It's a random fact.
Occam's razor is a common sense description of the event probabilitycaclulation .

Something can be explained with one single event, or five independent event .
Say all event probability is 50%, means there is 50% chance for that the single event is the cause, or 1/32 chance to have the five independent event as cause.


Example the Ford carrier problem can be due concurrent procurement strategy, or the electrical system / catapult/arrest/weapon elevator represents independent random events that caused the issues.

Now ,first have 50% chance, second each has 50% , second four independent has together 6.25% chance.
So,if there is 8 events like this, then one will be NOT because of the single decision, but random events during execution.

( the above example not correct, but the correct approach/calculation more complicated and time consuming )

Future :
The outcome will depend on the actions done by the decision makers.
But as the time pass the available options will decrease / change.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Occam's razor is a common sense description of the event probabilitycaclulation .

Something can be explained with one single event, or five independent event .
Say all event probability is 50%, means there is 50% chance for that the single event is the cause, or 1/32 chance to have the five independent event as cause.


Example the Ford carrier problem can be due concurrent procurement strategy, or the electrical system / catapult/arrest/weapon elevator represents independent random events that caused the issues.

Now ,first have 50% chance, second each has 50% , second four independent has together 6.25% chance.
So,if there is 8 events like this, then one will be NOT because of the single decision, but random events during execution.

( the above example not correct, but the correct approach/calculation more complicated and time consuming )

Future :
The outcome will depend on the actions done by the decision makers.
But as the time pass the available options will decrease / change.

Haha you're funny. You really want to stick with using Occam's razor? This debate with you is too easy.

Occam's razor is only a last resort to make a guess when there is no evidence. When there is evidence, people analyze the evidence to see which is true regardless of how complicated it is. Evidence rules above all. Only when there is no evidence can you possibly use Occam's razor to get the best chance of a correct answer even though it is still entirely unreliable and inaccurate. I have provided direct proof against the theory that China's car purchase decrease is due to declining spending power, therefore no philosophical theory, especially not Occam's Razor, can vouch for its truth.

By logic and common sense, you can understand why the statement that "the simplest answer is always true" is entirely flawed, right? I just provided you with a real world example. When iphone sales drop, it is not the Occam's razor solution that people are poorer, but the solution that is more complicated and supported by evidence, which is a purposed withdrawal in anticipation for the new release. What else can you say against this?

Your example of the Ford carrier is wrong and self-defeating as any support for Occam's razor. The correct example to support Occam's razor is if a tree were to be found broken, the explanation that a storm broke it is much better than something random like hundreds of animals kept hitting it through the night to break it. Yes, that's true if there were no evidence, but if there is evidence of blood and carcasses or storm or ax marks or vehicular strike (or even alien activity, for that matter), then obviously, evidence would determine the truth, NOT simplicity and NOT Occam's razor.

Occam's razer is not acceptable as an argument in science or in law. It is a detail of ancient philosophy and theory taught for trivial purposes. It is completely useless to any craft or trade where accuracy is important.
 
now noticed the tweet
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China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds in October hit the lowest in a year, but the country remained the largest foreign buyer of U.S. government debt, according to statistics released by U.S. Treasury Department

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