Chinese Economics Thread

[Jura The idiot]

almost missed this:

"Extra babies" does not mean population growth.

Population growth for China is bad.

Demographic shift to a younger population is good.

so it seems you're looking for the negative growth rate ... knowing the initial population size, it should be straightforward, keeping the current

• mortality and
  
• life expectancy

constant, to estimate a minimal natality needed (using just the distribution given under 'Age structure' at

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) ... just thinking aloud, I might look at that on this Friday during like seven hours on trains LOL

 

[Klon]

Those graphs are just repetitions of your previous statements, not explanations.

As shown in the age pyramid I provided, China's largest demographic slice is the 25-29 group. They will only enter retirement in 30 years, more than enough time for a new generation to enter the work force.

The graphs are posted to support my position, which they do, because I was looking at them as I formulated it. I don't know which part needs explaining. Do you not understand what they show or do you not believe it?

I'll be happy to address your argument once you clearly state it. For example, you can answer the following question: In 30 years, what will happen to China's working-age population and elderly population, respectively, relative to today (increase, decrease, no change; also please indicate the magnitude of change, if any)? Because "they will only enter retirement in 30 years, more than enough time for a new generation to enter the work force" is very vague, at best.

Or just describe the demographic shift/transition that you've mentioned (what will happen and when?). How will China achieve a "demographic shift to a younger population"?

 

[solarz]

The graphs are posted to support my position, which they do, because I was looking at them as I formulated it. I don't know which part needs explaining. Do you not understand what they show or do you not believe it?

I'll be happy to address your argument once you clearly state it. For example, you can answer the following question: In 30 years, what will happen to China's working-age population and elderly population, respectively, relative to today (increase, decrease, no change; also please indicate the magnitude of change, if any)? Because "they will only enter retirement in 30 years, more than enough time for a new generation to enter the work force" is very vague, at best.

Or just describe the demographic shift/transition that you've mentioned (what will happen and when?). How will China achieve a "demographic shift to a younger population"?

The 25-29 age cohort is prime child bearing age, and will be of child bearing age for 10 years. We don't know what the government's family planning policy will be in the next 10 years. Even if they only have 2 children per family on average, that's enough to create a second demographic peak of young people in 30 years.

Contrary to your assertions, that would not result in a decrease in work-age population.

 

[Klon]

The 25-29 age cohort is prime child bearing age, and will be of child bearing age for 10 years. We don't know what the government's family planning policy will be in the next 10 years. Even if they only have 2 children per family on average, that's enough to create a second demographic peak of young people in 30 years.

Contrary to your assertions, that would not result in a decrease in work-age population.

The population aged between 20 and 64 has already started declining and is guaranteed to decline for the next 20 years and likely for longer, even with an increased fertility rate.

 

[solarz]

The population aged between 20 and 64 has already started declining and is guaranteed to decline for the next 20 years and likely for longer, even with an increased fertility rate.

Sorry, but unlike you, I don't take these projections as catechism.

 

[Klon]

Sorry, but unlike you, I don't take these projections as catechism.

It's guaranteed because the number of people under 20 is smaller than the number of people between 45 and 64. Pretty simple.

 

[Jura The idiot]

now I read
China to roll out new tax cuts to boost high-quality development
Xinhua| 2018-03-28 23:02:52

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China will cut value-added tax (VAT) rates as part of a tax reduction package amounting to 400 billion yuan (about 63 billion U.S. dollars) this year.

The decision was made at a State Council executive meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang on Wednesday. It is expected to boost high-quality development.

The tax rate, starting from May 1, will be lowered from 17 percent to 16 percent for manufacturing, and from 11 percent to 10 percent for transportation, construction, basic telecommunication services and farm produce.

Li said that the VAT reform was a major step in China's tax regime reform.

"The VAT reform has helped to reduce the overall corporate tax burden, and improve the tax regime. The reform has proven to be conducive to the transformation and upgrading of the economy, unifying the tax structure and making taxation fairer," Li said.

This round of tax cuts will apply to all manufacturing companies. All businesses registered in China, be they joint ventures or wholly foreign owned companies, will be treated equally, according to the premier.

The VAT reform was first piloted in Shanghai before it was rolled out nationwide. It has delivered a total tax cut of 2.1 trillion yuan over the past five years.

The services sector has expanded significantly as a result. Its added value rose to 51.6 percent of GDP in 2017, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

The reform has also boosted entrepreneurship, innovation and the development of new industries and new forms of business. Micro and small firms have been the biggest beneficiaries in this process.

The premier said in his government work report earlier this month that efforts will be made to further lighten the tax burden on businesses. The government will reform and improve VAT, consolidate the three tax brackets into two and adjust tax rates, prioritize lowering rates in manufacturing and transportation, and raise the threshold for the annual sales volume for small-scale taxpayers.

As part of the tax cut package, eligible enterprises in advanced manufacturing, modern services and electric utility shall receive a lump-sum refund for their input VAT payments yet to be deducted.

The meeting also decided to unify the standard for small-scale taxpayers, as it raises the threshold of taxable annual sales volume for industrial and commercial enterprises from 500,000 yuan and 800,000 yuan, to 5 million yuan. Enterprises registered as general taxpayers will be allowed to switch their status to small-scale taxpayers within a given time.

Li said that reducing the three tax rate brackets to two in one go was a hugely challenging job, as reforms are normally pursued step by step. Yet the goal was not beyond reach.

He stressed that no industry should see its tax burden increase in the course of VAT reform. This will be the guiding principle of all relevant reform measures.

The meeting also decided to set up a state financing guarantee fund with initial funds of no less than 60 billion yuan.

 

[solarz]

It's guaranteed because the number of people under 20 is smaller than the number of people between 45 and 64. Pretty simple.

That makes no sense, why do you deliberately ignore the large demographic peak of 25-29?

 

[Klon]

That makes no sense, why do you deliberately ignore the large demographic peak of 25-29?

Because it has nothing to do with what I'm saying. Let's not go on about this. Anyone can look at the data and decide for themself.

 

[Jura The idiot]

noticed China gives go-head for two largest shipbuilders to merge: Bloomberg
Updated 3 hours ago

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China’s cabinet has given preliminary approval to merge the country’s two largest shipbuilders, China State Shipbuilding Corp [SASACN.UL] with China Shipbuilding Industry Corp [CSBIC.UL], Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.

It said the move, which will create a firm that will dwarf its South Korean rivals such as Hyundai Heavy Industries Co (

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), could still be subject to change as many details needed to be ironed out by ministries and regulators.

Later on Friday, a slew of units belonging to the two companies, such as CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering Group Co Ltd (

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), CSSC Science & Technology Co Ltd (

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) and China Harzone Industry Corp Ltd (

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) issued similar statements to clarify on media reports.

“We consulted our controlling shareholder China Shipping Industry on the matter and received its reply saying that it had not received any documents from any government departments regarding the merger between the two shipping companies,” China Harzone said.

The two companies have multiple shipyards across China whose products range from aircraft carriers to commercial ships which carry oil and gas.

posted that Bloomberg article in
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