Chinese Economics Thread

Brumby

Major
It is not the first time and will not be the last for any stock market or that matter.

The volatility (swings) is normal but what in my view is abnormal is the extent of the suspension (close to 50 %). In speculation there are two underlying fundamentals that are critical i.e. liquidity and risk management. When you hold stocks that are suspended, the liquidity immediately disappears and the inherent risk goes up exponentially to gap openings when the suspension is lifted. A margin account's equity can be wiped out and actually goes into the red.
 

SamuraiBlue

Captain
It's worse since most of PRC's stock holders are like the article states are retail investors AKA individuals.

Unlike other major stock markets, which are dominated by
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money managers, retail investors account for around 85 percent of China trade, which exacerbates volatility.

This is going to drag the real estate market into a nose dive with it with people panic selling their real estate to obtain liquidity.
 

broadsword

Brigadier
It's worse since most of PRC's stock holders are like the article states are retail investors AKA individuals.



This is going to drag the real estate market into a nose dive with it with people panic selling their real estate to obtain liquidity.

It may exacerbate the volatility, but as to people selling their real estate, it is yet to be seen to what extent. Stock markets in South east Asian have been retail driven and during the 90s were as volatile as Shanghai's, but their property markets take it in their stride.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
It's worse since most of PRC's stock holders are like the article states are retail investors AKA individuals.



This is going to drag the real estate market into a nose dive with it with people panic selling their real estate to obtain liquidity.
Not sure about the real estate sell off, since CCP still hasn't opened a lot of good choices for individuals to invest. Also, there's a report most Chinese households weren't in the stock market, so recent crash affected state owned enterprises much more than individuals. Finally, the Chinese economic foundation still seems strong, and the stock crash hasn't tanked the economy and cause massive unemployment. Of course, if you're right about sustained real estate panic sell off, then all bets are off, but at this point, China's economy seems able to cope with the stock market crash, and biggest losers aren't the "little guys."
 

kroko

Senior Member
China´s stock market has really become a joke:

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Will there be consequences for the economy in general? It remains to be seen. But the government really seems to be concerned.

the Chinese economic foundation still seems strong

I disagree. There is a lot of overcapacity and overinvestiment in the chinese economy.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
I disagree. There is a lot of overcapacity and overinvestiment in the chinese economy.
That's why China is trying to export its overcapacity to the rest of the world, through institutions and programs like AIIB, BRICS bank, and One Road, One Belt. If those efforts are not in place, then I'd agree with you.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Thu Jul 9, 2015 5:09am EDT
China bounce ends five-day losing streak for stocks
LONDON | BY
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A panel outside a bank displays the morning trading of CSI300 index, the largest listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and the Shanghai Composite Index (SSCI), in Hong Kong, China July 9, 2015.
REUTERS/BOBBY YIP
World stocks snapped a five-day losing streak on Thursday, as Beijing halted a rout in Chinese stocks and the Federal Reserve signaled it might be too soon to raise U.S. interest rates.

European bourses and bonds made early gains as strong export figures from Germany and hopes that Greece's debt negotiations will succeed complemented the overnight rebound in Asia and commodity markets.

China's main stock market jumped 6.4 percent -- almost as much as it had fallen the previous day -- after its securities regulator ordered shareholders with stakes of more than 5 percent not to sell shares for the next six months.

The advance brought relief throughout Asia. A 1.8 percent climb by MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was its biggest since April. The main emerging markets index scored its best gain since January.

Europe's mining and metals stocks, which are closely linked to China's fortunes, led the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index up 0.9 percent, although investors were far from care-free.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has until midnight to propose spending-cut plans that will convince the euro zone to give Athens a three-year loan to rescue it from bankruptcy. Without the money, it will have to print another currency, probably leading to its exit from the euro.

"The midnight deadline for Europe seems a long way away," said Nick Parsons, global head of forex at National Australia Bank in London.

"Overnight we have a traditional risk-on mood, but there is a general wariness that is crimping investor participation in the market. The order flow really is very thin," he added.

Bond markets appeared hopeful that a deal would still be reached. Italian, Spanish and Portuguese bond yields all fell in early trading. [GVD/EUR]

Even if Greece does end up out of the euro, the European Central Bank has made clear it is ready to jump in to limit any fallout. Ardo Hansson, Estonia's ECB policymaker, said the bank was being forced to face up to the possibility of a Greek exit.

"We can use a wide range of non-standard monetary policy measures and close cooperation with other central banks. We are prepared to implement these capabilities if needed," he said in a Estonian newspaper interview.



COMMODITY COMFORT

The rebound in China and the drop in the dollar following Wednesday's Fed minutes helped steady commodity markets.

"Many participants emphasized that, in order to determine that the criteria for beginning policy normalization had been met, they would need additional information indicating that economic growth was strengthening, that labor market conditions were continuing to improve, and that inflation was moving back toward the Committee’s objective," the minutes said.

U.S. crude advanced 1.6 percent to $52.48 but has still shed nearly eight percent so far this week. Brent was $57.88 a barrel.

The Australian dollar, often used in proxy China trades, gained 0.6 percent to $0.7473. Copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.9 percent to $5,569 a tonne after hitting a six-year trough of $5,240 a tonne on Wednesday.

A bounce by iron ore futures < DCIOcv1> in China pointed toward a rebound later in the day for benchmark spot iron, which retreated to a decade-low $45 a tonne overnight.

Oil markets were also watching talks on a potential nuclear deal with Iran that could ease its long-running sanctions.

Iran has offered "constructive solutions," the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) reported on Wednesday, but Western officials suggested they had heard nothing new from Tehran.


(Reporting by Marc Jones)
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