I'm pretty sure that this is almost entirely explained by China's export restrictions on fuel and other refined products.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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Not even close, exports are only a tiny fraction of demand destruction. This piece remains the most plausible analysis I've seen on the subject:
Food & Resource Security
A simple and plausible explanation for how oil imports dropped so precipitously without touching stockpiles. A close look at the reams of official data available suggests a more humdrum explanation. Public information and signs of a demand peak that analysts have been pointing out for several...
www.sinodefenceforum.com
interesting data.
China’s trade data for June were astounding. Exports were $412.4 billion, up 27% year on year, while imports were $286.8, up 36%.
China's trade surplus in June was $125.6, the second highest monthly surplus ever recorded by any country, beaten only by the $138.6 billion recorded by China in January, 2025 (mainly because the timing of that year's Spring Festival shifted most of the trade scheduled for the first two months of the year into January).
China’s trade data for June were astounding. Exports were $412.4 billion, up 27% year on year, while imports were $286.8, up 36%.
China's trade surplus in June was $125.6, the second highest monthly surplus ever recorded by any country, beaten only by the $138.6 billion recorded by China in January, 2025 (mainly because the timing of that year's Spring Festival shifted most of the trade scheduled for the first two months of the year into January).
What's interesting is that the headline number from Chinese news media is always the size and growth of the total trade (import + export combined), while western media would always lead with the trade surplus size.
In fact the word "surplus" doesn't even appear in that article.