Chinese Economics Thread

[Eventine]

China has an enormous middle-class. Pretty much every major city in China will have a vibrant night life. And culture. And landmarks.



China is a country that's still undergoing massive urbanization and development.

By contrast, United States was a mostly urbanized country. Post WW2 suburbanization was driven by several things. First, it was given a massive boost by post WW2 spending like the GI bill, mass motorization which made car ownership affordable plus mass transit that became motorized (which destroyed those rail car networks like the one in San Francisco) allowing mass expansion of public transport. On top of that, Eisenhower's interstate program plus subsequent development of absolutely massive freeway networks, led to an "exodus" of veterans and higher-income Americans into those nice "American Dream" suburban villages. It also led to a massive growth in low-density urban sprawl.

It was also a "downward pyramid" with suburbanization spearheaded by higher income Americans, particularly middle class Whites who were the target demographic for mortgage reform and affirmative action. It trickled down very gradually, and did not reach some tranches of America's population at all. Either way, America was in a very different development period in 1950s-70s. It was already a developed country then, unlike China today which is only just attaining that status and in very different circumstances.

China is still likely not done urbanizing. The world is also a very different place than 1940s America. It is entirely reasonable to assume that innovation and development will actually make suburbs very unattractive to Chinese people.

Also, the part about Americans and families and backyards... that's all fluff in the 21st century. House ownership has much less to do with wanting kids to play in the backyard (everyone is on their laptop or smartphone, including kids), and much more about a type of lifestyle that's desirable to Americans. Which is about big homes, privacy, and a preference for non-noisy environments.

For the actual family oriented Americans, owning a house is much more about having extra rooms for kids and your office then about having a backyard. Backyards are actually shrinking and getting smaller on new builds. Also, just the idea of settling down. No rents, no renegotiations, no constant change of neighbors (typically).

I cannot imagine a future in which concrete blocks are the "preferred way of living" for human beings. I do not think large houses and back yards are an American cultural trait. For ten thousand years, humans have not lived in concrete apartments. Villages were not built like high rises. Towns were not built like high rises. Historical cities were not built like high rises. High rises, if anything, was the Western invention, not sub-urban life.

If you want to talk about how Chinese people preferred to live historically, you should take a look at the practices of wealthy, historical Chinese families. You'll quickly realize they preferred to live in mansions with gardens (the historical parallel to modern back yards), with several generations under one roof. That better reflects Chinese ideals, than Soviet style apartment blocks designed for small nuclear families (which was also a Western invention).

 

[TPenglake]

China has an enormous middle-class. Pretty much every major city in China will have a vibrant night life. And culture. And landmarks.

Post was already pretty long so I ommitted it, but I did originally expound on the fact that having a vibrant cultural scene requires a combination of willing upper and middle class patronage that few cities outside the richest ones have access to. Emphasis on willing, because I think of San Francisco and San Jose for example, where the upper and middle class are mostly workaholic engineers with little interest in cultural life, and that's why SF's museums and music venues are dying, while San Jose has no recreational life outside of shopping malls. Today one of the cities in China with the highest concentration of middle class residents is Shenzhen and you'd sooner find someone who has faith in China's soccer team than you would someone who thinks of Shenzhen for its "culture."

Nevermind right now the Chinese economy is slowing and the middle class is reigning in spending, but even in a future scenario where the economy is turbo charged and inland cities can grow in population, you're not going to have what you described just prop up magically. So for all intents in purposes, most Chinese cities outside of the ones I mentioned in my OP will be relatively suburban in character if not necessarily urban layout.

As for the rest of the post, I obviously can't say what all Chinese people's idea of a comfortable living environment exactly constitutes. I can only relate what some have some have said to me about the convenience of raising a family in a single family home compared to an apartment complex and as @Eventine said, what still drives some Chinese to emigrate to Anglosphere countries. It is probably something to think about in the future as the need to cram as many Chinese into modern housing as quickly possible dissapears and the focus shifts to providing Chinese with a comfortable environment to raise families and build sustainable communities.