Chinese Economics Thread

TK3600

Colonel
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I'm only saying this half facetiously but tell us how you really feel when you get the 20 bucks.
I like the feeling of gaining twenty bucks more than spending it. The money goes right into my investment and I feel quite happy.

In fact I gained 300 yuan (60 buck) 2 days ago on CSSC stocks and you know what? It goes into other stocks!
 

Eventine

Senior Member
Registered Member
Yes, and name me one European company that is relevant in the humanoid robotics supply chain....
It's less painful to lose something you never had.

It's not a static pie. It can be a win-win if there's more investment in creating new industries. The bigger the pie gets, the more room there is for trade specialization and comparative advantage, which in turn gives room to less competitive countries to find their niche. But if we insist on crushing them in their existing industries, yeah, that's going to end in war.

You literally say "we are going to undercut them and its inevitable" but then you follow up with a don't-worry-bro "its not a zero sum game".

...and then you say "but we don't really care about it even if we did".
It's not in contradiction. I'm not in full agreement with China's industrial policies. If it is a true zero sum game then ultimately trade with China will stop - and China will face this issue with every trade partner, not just Europe. This is why I suggest making the pie larger, and I know China is capable of doing this because it's done it already in spaces like consumer drones. China is actually better at dominating frontier industries via "leap frogging," and if not for the US's "national security" rug pull, I think China would still be trading quite a lot with the West and its allies buying chips, equipment, components, etc. from their established industries.

Ultimately, it's politics, not economics, that have made relying on Western supply chains impossible for China. Complete economic self-sufficiency was not China's original goal.

Put yourself in any western European politician's shoes and think about whether what you said is politically acceptable. (I am being *very* precise when I say politically acceptable, and not whether what they do is morally correct)

My overall point is, the other side gets a vote/choice on what happens next. What's the strategy? Hope Western leaders (That's right, the same generation of Western leaders that literally grew up being taught they were the pinnacle of civilization) understand that they are antiquated/backwards/old/irrelevant and take it?

It is much easier to do this deindustrialization/going onto path of irrelevance slower with the next generation of leaders (millennials/GenZ/GenAlpha are much less precious about their prior global status especially considering they are now being bombarded by Chinese techno-dominance on TikTok/XHS all day long).
I think we're saying similar things.

Deindustrialization is not politically acceptable for Europe, but it is also not necessary - it's not an inevitable consequence of trade with China. That has to be the narrative if we want trade to continue. So there's two ways to achieve it - building new factories in Europe, and making the pie bigger via creating new industries. To me, the latter is preferrable to the former, because it preserves Chinese industrial preeminence. But ultimately, a combination of the two is probably needed to be build a stable trading system.
 

Eventine

Senior Member
Registered Member
Yes and no. Paying for software simply isn't a habit the way it is in the RoW. This is why AWS margins (with SaaS embedded) are significantly higher than AliCloud margins (IaaS and maybe some PaaS).

This brings up another point - as a thought exercise for those who still believe deflation is good - the most extreme form of 'deflation' is free - in the case of software, pirated copies. Would people argue that pirating software is good for the economy?
For Silicon Valley, software isn't really the product. YOU are the product, the moment you start using their software. It's not anything different in China - margins are lower in software because margins are lower in everything. Chinese (and in general, Asian) consumers just don't spend as much money on useless crap as Americans, who max out their credit cards and live pay check to pay check - something that Asians would not do even if they had the same social safety nets. We know, because we have Asian Americans as an example. Culture matters.
 
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