Chinese Economics Thread

Michael90

Senior Member
Registered Member
Funnily enough I was going to respond and bring up this exact point.

We know for a fact, that auto manufacturers are squeezing up-stream suppliers, with BYD being the most prominent (because they are the most successful, and therefore with the largest market power). This isn't an example of "deflation through tech/economies of scale", this is just BYD taking money out of someone's pocket to put into their own, which does flow to the customer (presumably), but also reduces cash flow for their up-stream suppliers to expand and do their own R&D.

And I doubt that this is the only industry where it happens. In any case, the conversation is becoming far too dogmatic again. It just feels like people are looking for confirmation bias or positive trends rather than discussing the minutia of unpleasant circumstances.
Interesting. Maybe that's why the Chinese government has recently been trying to stop this practice and force this companies to pay their suppliers on time and fairly. I think this was a let down by Chinese regulators, they shouldn't have allowed such a blatant malpractice to carry on for so long without consequences for this companies engaging in such acts.
 

abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
In my mind, something that is just sufficient to get markets going up again for a little while, specifically in reaction to Trump's tariffs

Fact Free Claim #1. Central Huijin has been stepping in many times in the past years. Stop making up claims.

1763938990703.png

If you bothered to read, the article I linked clearly stated the following:

据《中国经营报》记者了解,此前,中央汇金在维护资本市场稳定方面有过多次举措。比如,2023年10月11日,中农建工四大国有银行先后发布公告称,中央汇金分别增持2489万股、3727万股、1838万股和2761万股,并拟在未来6个月内继续在二级市场增持。2023年10月23日,中央汇金表示当日买入ETF,并将在未来继续增持。2024年2月6日,中央汇金方面表示,充分认可当前A股市场配置价值,已于近日扩大交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)增持范围,并将继续加大增持力度、扩大增持规模,坚决维护资本市场平稳运行。

Now, if you actually did any analysis, and read the December 2024 Politburo readout, you will have read that the Politburo Readout first time mentioned "stabilizing stock market and real estate market" as a prelude to the CEWC in 2024.

会议强调,做好明年经济工作,要以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导,全面贯彻落实党的二十大和二十届二中、三中全会精神,坚持稳中求进工作总基调,完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念,加快构建新发展格局,扎实推动高质量发展,进一步全面深化改革,扩大高水平对外开放,建设现代化产业体系,更好统筹发展和安全,实施更加积极有为的宏观政策,扩大国内需求,推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展,稳住楼市股市,防范化解重点领域风险和外部冲击,稳定预期、激发活力,推动经济持续回升向好,不断提高人民生活水平,保持社会和谐稳定,高质量完成“十四五”规划目标任务,为实现“十五五”良好开局打牢基础。

Stop living in the past. Get with the program.

In fact I explained it preemptively in my first reply to you

I had never claimed there were ever going to be opening of credit to real estate developers. You can define a bazooka however you want, but I had never claimed that a "bazooka" (as defined by you) was ever going to be used. Why do you continue to stick to this mistaken claim that I said this:
yet none of the bazooka stimulus measure you've predicted

I wrote explicitly what I thought stimulus was necessary (as I previously stated clearly, LGFV debt resolution), and something the central government actually did do.

Please stop making up shit.

You have been ferociously stubborn in refusing to actually commit to any position whatsoever. I asked you at the start to explain what your core point was, and you never have. I did at the beginning. Of course, this allows you to always dance around my attacks and claim I am misunderstanding, or misreading, or that I am wrong on some technicality. In the continued absence of any statement of a specific, falsifiable belief about Chinese policy intention on your part I can only assume that you do not have one, or are otherwise unwilling to share them because they have already been proven wrong.
I am responding only because you claimed I said something I never said.
 
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hereforsemithread

New Member
Registered Member
I am responding only because you claimed I said something I never said.
And you know what could have resolved this at the outset? Actually stating that you don't believe that and then stating what you do believe. I have been under the impression that you do expect a fairly large resumption of credit to developers as a result of you constantly advocating for stabilizing RE on this forum and elsewhere.
Stop living in the past. Get with the program.
What program? What do you think the center's program is?
 

abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
What program? What do you think the center's program is?
I am not going to bother responding to your questions, because the last time I wrote to you what I thought the central government was going to do in 2024 ("resolve LGFV debt issue"), you simply accused me of writing something else ("turn on credit taps for developers").

Just now you've yet again ignored my statements wrt. Central Huijin.
 

hereforsemithread

New Member
Registered Member
I am not going to bother responding to your questions, because the last time I wrote to you what I thought the central government was going to do in 2024
Are you seriously incapable of recognizing a distinction between pointing to something they've already done and making a prediction about what they will do? I am asking for the letter, and have already done so myself.
Just now you've yet again ignored my statements wrt. Central Huijin.
In the absence of an argument on your part about what they are trying to do this is completely irrelevant; I have already stated what I meant wrt stock market stimulus and it's obvious Huijin's recent activities do not meet that threshold.
 

abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
making a prediction
1763940724887.png

Do you bother to read? Like at all?

what they are trying to do this is completely irrelevant; I have already stated what I meant wrt stock market stimulus.
1763940889141.png

Again, if you bothered to read. Central Huijin officially announced that it will 'steadfastly stabilize the capital markets' and will continue to buy ETFs.

The PBOC also decided to give infinite liquidity should Central Huijin need it:

1763940988715.png

Again, do you read?
 

hereforsemithread

New Member
Registered Member
market stabilization fund
At this point you're just doing what you accuse me of doing. This is a complete non-sequitor; I already said they made efforts to stabilize markets and clarified what I meant about stimulus in both senses multiple times.
get with the program
What program for the love of god? What are they optimizing for? This is what I am asking for.
Again, do you read?
I will read articles if they are actually relevant to my argument.
 
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abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
I am not going to bother responding to your questions, because the last time I wrote to you what I thought the central government was going to do in 2024 ("resolve LGFV debt issue"), you simply accused me of writing something else ("turn on credit taps for developers").

@hereforsemithread - until you apologize for mistakenly accusing me of stating that the government was going turn on credit taps for developers, answering any of your questions is a liability, because I cannot be assured that you won't turn around and make up shit about what I said in the future.

When are you going to accept that the central government simply does not share your priorities?

Take this line back. I specifically stated what I thought the priorities were - specifically LGFV debt relief - something the central government did indeed do. Why do you continue to make up shit about me?
 

hereforsemithread

New Member
Registered Member
@hereforsemithread - until you apologize for mistakenly accusing me of stating that the government was going turn on credit taps for developers, answering any of your questions is a liability, because I cannot be assured that you won't turn around and make up shit about what I said in the future.
I apologize for misinterpreting your emphasis on stabilizing RE as advocacy for extending more credit to developers, and for forgetting the exact details of a conversation we had 18 months ago. Now can you tell us what you think the central government is trying to do, in a broader macro context? Please?
Take this line back.
No.
 
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abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
and for forgetting the exact details of a conversation we had 18 months ago.
I never said you have to remember, but don't make up shit if you can't remember the details.

Now can you tell us what you think the central government is trying to do, in a broader macro context? Please?
They make it very clear they'd like to see markets (real estate and equity) stabilize. That is the point of a market stabilization fund. Meaning they are okay with it staying flat or going up, but they will put a floor in if it goes lower. If you are aware of the concept of risk in equity markets what the central government has done is to significantly enhance the risk adjusted returns of investing in A shares.
 
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