yes, there is no need to make aluminum and copper cheaper for other countries. It just decreases your own industry's competitiveness in the downstream products.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
supercat
Colonel
Some areas of rural China look like suburbans in the US.
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This is insane news !!
Located within King Salman International Airport, the Saudi Arabia-China Special Economic Zone will feature three key areas: a logistics and light industrial park to bolster local supply chains, an international trade hub for streamlined business services, and a residential zone with quality facilities for employees and families.
This is insane news !!
Located within King Salman International Airport, the Saudi Arabia-China Special Economic Zone will feature three key areas: a logistics and light industrial park to bolster local supply chains, an international trade hub for streamlined business services, and a residential zone with quality facilities for employees and families.
Zhejiang and Jiangsu rural areas are rich. These two provinces are benchmark for the rest of China. Besides the richest cities, they have also the richest and most developed rural areas.
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Sometimes the economist, sometimes FT...
wow, if China can make the rail corridor more efficient, then this parabola would extend even further.
Issuing dollar bonds in Saudi Arabia is starting to make more sense.
This is insane news !!
Located within King Salman International Airport, the Saudi Arabia-China Special Economic Zone will feature three key areas: a logistics and light industrial park to bolster local supply chains, an international trade hub for streamlined business services, and a residential zone with quality facilities for employees and families.
As a review of 2024 expectations from Jan as we head into December - here is how my estimates looked. Most importantly, I was very much on the point with respect to the key questions I asked. As well, some of these questions remain very relevant as we head into 2025.
GDP Growth in 2024
As the first 3Q came out to 4.8% and for all intents and purposes Q4 is looking to be running ahead of Q3 (which was 4.6%), I think it is with very high likelihood that GDP growth for 2024 will be anywhere between 4.8% to 5.0% - call it 4.9% for simplicity sake. Which is firmly within the 'around 5%' target set in March. However, we were likely looking at 4.6% growth in 2024 had the pivot in 9.24/9.26 not happened. Which, as I initially said - 2024 GDP growth was going to be highly dependent on stimulus efforts.
How much additional central government bonds will they issue?
They issued 1 trillion of long term special purpose central government bonds - I expect this to continue into 2025 with a minimum of 1trln (possibly 2trln). This is something to watch closely going into 2025.
Where are they on solving LGFV issues?
With the NPC Meeting announcement in November - we have a very good start at solving the local government debt issues - with a 6+4+2 trillion RMB plan over the next 3-5 years at removing some 12 trillion (of the ~60 trillion) of so called 'platform debt'. This should significantly improve liquidity at local government levels.
What about urban village renovation?
The MoHURD announced an initial round of 1 million units (initially targeted at 35 top cities but expanded to 300 cities). This initial 1 million units would've been sufficient in addressing the inventory issues in the top 35 cities but would not be nearly enough for 300 cities. This is something to watch closely going into 2025.
When will the 3rd plenum happen? What comprehensive reforms will they announce as part of that?
July 2024.
Comprehensive reforms have been already discussed in this thread (I've weighed in on that already - search it up). In conjunction with the policy pivot on 9.24/9.26, I think it is extremely important for anyone interested in the Chinese economy to understand that the consumption & capital markets are going to be extremely important *going forward* (emphasis here being that it *has not been* as important historically). It is functionally retarded to linearly extrapolate anything and imagine things as always the same as before (imagine linearly extrapolating PLA development from 1995-2005 and assuming the next 10 years were of the same pace/trajectory).
Latest on Shenzhen wanting 15 trillion RMB of market cap by 2027 (vs. 9 trillion today):
A bit of a victory lap here, but I've been very much correct on the economy in the past 2 years - so do understand that when you do not like what I have to say, it is likely you who needs to adjust/update your priors.
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