Real estate price is indeed going down, however, you can’t really compare it with London/Sydney , housing location decides which school your kids are going , there’s a deep bond between housing and education resources, which fundamentally changes the very nature of Chinese real estate.Real estate prices need to crash ~80% at a minimum. Look at the price-to-income ratios for T1 cities in China and compare them to expensive cities like London and Sydney. The latter look like bargain prices in comparison.
There are two major mistakes the CCP made during the last half-century. The first is real estate sector generally, allowing it to appreciate beyond reason and focusing land sales model to fund local governments by too large of an extent. The second is the 1 child policy. The latter is now a ship that has sailed but the former can still be corrected.
Better bite the bullet and accept a low-growth decade but make young Chinese people able to buy real estate without getting the whole extended family into debt. I wonder how much of weak consumption is just because of the insane amount of saving you need to do to buy your own real estate.
Just do not update the software duh. Or pirate, crack them if you want newer one.Software is the last thing China needs to worry about, it is the easiest and quickest hurdle to overcome. If there is an incentive, China has the software engineering talent to produce domestic equivalents within a year or two. Hardware takes much longer.
another hit piece from HW before HR
For most of us, this is probably preaching to the converted. But I do think certain people in China probably did not appreciate how far tech war against China could go, because they were not around in 90s when any super computer they buy from America had to be put in a separate room that was watched over by someone from that American company and locked down at end of the day. No joke. That was part of the reason Loongson started
Remember that sanctions against Syria was not lifted even when Syria had an earthquake.
In terms of world economy, I think the medium/long term direction is quite clear. China will be forced to develop lower cost domestic alternatives to everything and then sell it to rest of the world and make the domestic market unavailable to those companies that sanctioned them.
It’s the dollar rate that was lowered, not Yuan rate. This will encourage dollar selling for Yuan, bringing the exchange rate back.China's largest banks just lower their interest rates for yuan deposits, completely opposite of world wide trend. Inflation is minimun and Chinese have been keeping large piles of money in the banks. To cut down on interest payments and to further sitmulate the economy, banks are lowering interest rates to discourage savings and encourahge spendings without much fear of inflation. While both China and the West are having the same aim i.e. encouraging spendings to stimulate their economies, Chinese have the advantage of huge savings accumulated in the last few years due to covids, while the other econmies were spending madly on credits. Remember Boris Johnson's free monies on street meals and Australia free monies on covid payments and travels? Covids has certainly changed the world's economic dynamism.