I also would appreciate not having someone attack my view with a deeply flawed analogy about TSMC because I flagged that as a risk TYVM.
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Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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Then maybe defend yourself a little bit better next time and actually explain what your assumptions are to begin with.
You're welcome.
I am just pointing out that simply by having a big manufacturing industry doesn’t mean that you have a strong enough of a manufacturing industry. As well that there are critical industries and sectors where the Chinese economy is not world leading.
It can be both true that the US (and the West) has a weak manufacturing industry and that China doesn’t have a strong enough of a manufacturing at the same time.
Is this so difficult to accept as reality?
I've already said my part as to why I think the discussion has become what it was, and it was because your were entering the discussion with a set of assumptions that in any reasonable context, you should have had the responsibility to flag at the beginning.
By only flagging it later and with an air of arrogance as if assuming that others should already have known it or portrayed it as if it should be a default assumption, it creates animosity and a lack of interest in people to engage you on friendly terms.
For what it's worth, I don't necessarily disagree with what you're saying but you really came in hot and the nature of the subsequent reaction from people is also entirely logical.
Again, this is quite interesting. official PMI and Caixin PMI for non-manufacturing also showing divergence.
I think this is expected
weakness is in export sector, but looks like small & medium business still are doing well overall. Maybe they are less dependent on Western markets.
Uneven recovery is the best way to put this
Export sector is being restrained by weakening demand from Western and vassal economic recessions.
Official PMI is usually based on large enterprises while Caixin PMI is mostly based on small and medium businesses.
Both figures can be correct at the same time. You can also get a more accurate reading of the economy if you take into account the official and the Caixin PMI numbers together
I've been discussing China's renewable boom & opportunity with Glenn Luk on twitter and I think it's good to mention it here just how different formerly fossil fuel heavy regions are transitioning to renewable industries.
Huge H2 project
New longi PV cell plant
A 32GW mega solar/wind farm
to take advantage of abundant land, proximity to desert, cheap electricity & EVA (widely used in solar panels) produced in Inner Mongolia
Similarly, Shanxi got a mega 56GW plant from Jinko.
many of these fossil fuel provinces will undergo huge changes in economy. While some may make less money, China as a whole will be importing a lot less fossil fuel and that will be good for their economy.
Huge H2 project
New longi PV cell plant
A 32GW mega solar/wind farm
to take advantage of abundant land, proximity to desert, cheap electricity & EVA (widely used in solar panels) produced in Inner Mongolia
Similarly, Shanxi got a mega 56GW plant from Jinko.
many of these fossil fuel provinces will undergo huge changes in economy. While some may make less money, China as a whole will be importing a lot less fossil fuel and that will be good for their economy.