Chinese Economics Thread

sunnymaxi

Captain
Registered Member
This is significant..

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China Floats to the Top​


The surge in IPOs on domestic markets is a win for Chinese policy makers and local investment banks.​


Chinese companies are dominating the global market for initial public offerings, as listings in the West continue to drag in 2023. So far this year, new Chinese flotations have raised almost five times as much money as those in the United States.

For China’s policymakers, that’s good news. Beijing has sought to encourage private companies — particularly those in strategic sectors — to pursue IPOs at home, while at the same time making it harder for them to list abroad. Data on listings since the start of 2022 suggest that that plan may be working.

China IPOs


Both the number and total volume of Chinese public listings in the first four months of the year has outpaced those in the U.S. So far this year, Chinese companies have raised close to $20 billion on mainland bourses, including a $1.1 billion IPO by Shaanxi Energy Investment, a state owned utility firm, and $663 million IPO by Yuneng New Energy Battery Material Co., a battery cathode manufacturer. By comparison, firms in the U.S. raised just $4 billion in the first four months of the year, according to data from Dealogic, a financial data provider.

High inflation and rising interest rates led to a plunge in U.S. and European IPO activity in 2022. This year, additional uncertainty stemming from the crisis in the banking sector has stymied any recovery.

As a result, Chinese investment banks leapfrogged their American counterparts to dominate the rankings of top IPO banks in 2022, with that trend continuing in the first four months of this year. State-owned
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
was the top IPO underwriter of 2022, and continues to lead the rankings this year, followed by
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
1 and
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
(CICC). Six of the top 10 underwriters so far this year are Chinese.

“China has closed its markets to foreign competition when its own companies were weak,” says Fraser Howie, co-author of
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.
“Now they’ve opened up 100 percent [foreign] ownership of brokerages, but the domestic brokers are much stronger, and the playing field is so tilted that it frankly doesn’t matter what the foreigners do, it’s all become such a domestic insiders game.”

China IPOs
 

PopularScience

Junior Member
Registered Member
In my opinion, trying to retain low-end manufacturing like some here have suggested is trying to catch a horse which has already bolted out of the barn.

View attachment 112244

The fact is that China has moved up the value-chain over the past decade, clearly ahead of any regional rivals. Therefore, the only way to retain some of these low-end manufacturing would be to artificially stunt China's development and keep it poor. That's a non-starter.

Going forward, China's economy cannot rely on labour growth. So the only other way is to grow your productivity.

How do you grow productivity in your manufacturing? Fewer people and more robots. So jobs will be harder to get but pay better. Folks here forget that China still has ~20% of its workforce engaged in agriculture! Most developed countries have no more than 1-2%.

The only sector that can absorb all these people is the service sector. That should happen without widespread deindustrialisation, which is the mistake that the West did. To me, that is the key challenge that China faces.

But I am not very worried that China will lose out on industrial prowess. Some amount of low-end manufacturing has to be let go. Why not be pro-active about that as tphuang suggests and buy political goodwill in the process? It will happen anyway, might as well try to make it on your own terms.
No. It is better to move inland than to move overseas. There are still many people in the inland earning 3,000 yuan a month.

Chinese farmers are highly productive, producing half of the world's fruits, vegetables, and aquatic products
 

zbb

Junior Member
Registered Member
In my opinion, trying to retain low-end manufacturing like some here have suggested is trying to catch a horse which has already bolted out of the barn.

View attachment 112244

The fact is that China has moved up the value-chain over the past decade, clearly ahead of any regional rivals. Therefore, the only way to retain some of these low-end manufacturing would be to artificially stunt China's development and keep it poor. That's a non-starter.

Going forward, China's economy cannot rely on labour growth. So the only other way is to grow your productivity.

How do you grow productivity in your manufacturing? Fewer people and more robots. So jobs will be harder to get but pay better. Folks here forget that China still has ~20% of its workforce engaged in agriculture! Most developed countries have no more than 1-2%.

The only sector that can absorb all these people is the service sector. That should happen without widespread deindustrialisation, which is the mistake that the West did. To me, that is the key challenge that China faces.

But I am not very worried that China will lose out on industrial prowess. Some amount of low-end manufacturing has to be let go. Why not be pro-active about that as tphuang suggests and buy political goodwill in the process? It will happen anyway, might as well try to make it on your own terms.
I'm surprised that Vietnam's labor costs are higher than that of Malaysia and Thailand, which both have much higher GDP per capita than Vietnam.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Speaking of Chinese investment in India, didn't BYD invest recently? Time will tell if BYD reverse the trend or go down like everyone else. It would be ironic because BYD is doing fine in USA and Japan of all places. If somehow India is more hostile than USA(geopolitical rival) and Japan(biggest automobile rival and historical enemy) that would be funny.

Well, I think everyone should recognize the inherent danger of investing, where ever it is. Investing in America is possibly the most risky thing that a prominent Chinese company can do right now, but BYD and others are still doing it due to the reward of being in one of the 3 largest markets in the world (with China & Europe being the other 2).

This is why I always laugh at the idea of American politicians cheering on their own companies to decouple or leave China. Do these people not understand that it is a bad idea to leave the largest market in the world?

Which is why despite the inherent dangers, Chinese companies like BYD will invest in America and India in order to gain local market share

I'm surprised that Vietnam's labor costs are higher than that of Malaysia and Thailand, which both have much higher GDP per capita than Vietnam.
I'm not sure this is necessarily the case, but labor cost alone is not the only reason determining the overall cost of a country. For Chinese businesses, the work culture and energy costs in Vietnam are probably more similar to southern China than anywhere else in the world. That's why BYD is building NEV factory in Vietnam for export despite its local market being 40% the size of Thailand & Indonesia market. On top of that, the infrastructure from China to Vietnam is so convenient (or will be so convenient) that Vietnam effectively becomes an extension of China's manufacturing machine. Whether you think that's a good thing or not is a different story. Eventually, China is likely to extend this to Central Asia, other southeast Asian countries and Russia. In the case of Russia & central Asia, that's also about supply of raw materials and land.

I look at things from point of controlling resources and energy.

in my mind, the economy of future is dependent on who can access the cheapest source of energy. China now has access to the cheapest natural resources through Russia, central Asia, west asia itself and ASEAN countries. Gives it all the hydrocarbon, lithium, nickel, rare earth, uranium, copper and etc. Only iron is a problem, although that may eventually be resolved through Afghanistan. It will utilize that to build the lowest cost energy infrastructure in the world through its wind, solar, nuclear, ESS & H2/NH3 production. It needs to eventually probably utilize land resources from Central Asian countries, Mongolia & Russia far east as well as water resources in SCS. As such, it needs to get all these countries around it on the same page. If they follow China, they will be part of supply chain and access low cost energy. If they do not, they will remain poor
 
Top